Your win condition looks test worthy.Originally Posted by nudon
I did test the Living Wish version--I guess I could have mentioned this in my first post. In my testing, Living Wish did an amazing job of increasing consistency, and it comes with the added bonus of LED. But, Living Wish fell really short in terms of reliably combating graveyard hate in games 2/3. The transformational sideboard, on the other hand, proved to be a vast improvement versus yard hate. Also, Living Wish versions play 4x Lion's Eye Diamond, which is terrible when coupled with Pact of Negation--our best answer to FoW. Xantid Swarm is great if the blue decks in your meta aren't packing removal (Reanimator, Show and Know, Merfolk, ect..) but I'm not that fortunate; RUG Delver, Stone-Blade Variants, and UW Miracles are just a couple of the decks that plague my meta, and I'm not the only one. This is why I suggest Pact of Negation, in tandem with Unmask, to force your way through blue disruption.
All of these things, and the fact that a Wish-less variation recently performed well at an SCG event (for what little it's worth), led me to believe that the Wish-less list with a transformational sideboard is quite possibly the best current configuration. (Feel free to input your opinions on this--this is just my assessment of the deck after several weeks of testing.)
But I will say, if it was possible to implement the Pact of Negation and Unmask package (solves FoW), the transformational sideboard (solves yard hate), and the Living Wish package (solves consistency issues), without watering it down too much, this deck would be a force to be reckoned with. Whether that requires reducing Living Wish to 2-3 and cutting the wish-board down to just Balustrade Spy, adding Pact of Negation main, or possibly adding Goblin Charbelcher main, I really don't know, but I'd love to see what it looks like.
Thanks, I think you'll agree that saving those 6 extra dead cards makes a big difference. You're welcome to refer to the last few pages of this thread for lines of play. The savings make the belcher transformation (if you plan to include it) easier since there are fewer cards to board out and LED is already in the main deck. Furthermore, one of my previous iterations actually had belcher in the main. I removed it because I think living wish adds much more versatility in real-game situations. While I'll agree that the man plan may not always get there, I think phyrexian obliterator is very difficult for non-white decks to deal with. Magus of the moon is a blowout against many legacy decks too. There are other bombs such as lodestone golem and karakas but cuts had to be made.
Pact of negation is the strongest argument against living wish. However, the power level of LED somewhat offsets this. Xantid swarm may not be the correct FoW counter depending on the meta but I just included it for now due to the synergy with living wish. This gives you 7 virtual copies of swarm. The correct number may be one or have a single cavern of souls take its place. With regards to unmask, there's no reason why the living wish build can't run it. If the lower black count (7 rogues + 4 wraiths + 4 rituals = 15) scares you, a single deathrite shaman can be added as a summoner's pact target to increase the black density. The problem with unmask is the card disadvantage. For this reason, I really recommend carpet of flowers (possibly in conjunction with unmask). It'll often represent a green, re-usable dark ritual. Having your mana countered won't feel as bad.
Not to take anything away from the wish-less version that got second at SCG but it had no answers for FoW. No pact of negation, chancellor of the annex, or unmask. This decision is clearly reflected by the deck's performance in the finals. Sometimes, you're able to dodge counters all day and sometimes all you face are blue decks. I actually agree with most of your assessment regarding the wish-less version and how it translates to the wish version. The two things I didn't necessarily agree with are your assessment of carpet of flowers and that the wish-less version is better.
I don't understand why anyone would run a glass-canon combo deck in such a meta. It's just asking for disappointment. If your goal is to prize, then play decks that prey on what other people are playing. Keep this one around for when the meta shifts against those decks and people start playing decks without Force of Will.
Here are some of the large hurdles this deck faces:
* It doesn't run enough initial mana sources.
This is a tough one to solve, and it's the challenge that any landless or largely landless deck faces. Summoner's Pact adds a lot of consistency in speed and color fixing, but it puts you all in and means you can't ever pass the turn. Land Grant is an option, but it opens you up to fizzling and it gives away your hand. What this decks wants more than anything is a Zombie Spirit Guide, but that probably will never exist. Are there any IMS options that haven't already been explored?
* It doesn't have enough ways to create an initial black mana, which is what you need in order to cast your rituals, which are the primary workhorses of mana generation.
The options here are to either play more black cards to turn on Chrome Mox more often, play Summoner's Pact, play more copies of Wild Cantor, play Land Grant to grab Bayou, or find some other way to generate B.
* It doesn't have enough protection to beat counterspells.
Unmask is not realistic because this deck doesn't play enough black cards. Also, Unmask competes with Chrome Mox. Pact of Negation is the best defense for an all-in version, but Pacts compete for space with other cards. Pacts also don't work with Lion's Eye Diamond. LED is an excellent mana generator, and Pact of Negation is an excellent counterspell. Pacts require an immediate kill, so they are not viable with any plan that would require passing the turn. If we need to beat counterspells, we either shouldn't play this deck or we should play Pact of Negation or we should find another way to protect the combo (for example, Chancellor of the Annex, Silence, Orim's Chant).
* It needs to run out a Ballustrade Spy or an Undercity Informer in order to win the game.
You can run a maximum of eight together. If you run cyclers, you keep hands based on odds. Then you either cycle into the jackpot or you bust. The more turns you pass waiting to hit, the higher the failure rate climbs. You need a way to increase the number of enablers in order to increase the consistency. Topdeck tutors, such as Wordly Tutor, might be possible with cyclers. Living Wish results in running seven instead of eight enablers, so you'll often be keeping Wish hands. The drawback of the Wish hands is that they cost more mana. The benefit of the Wish hands is that you can use LEDs. Another thing Wish hands have going for them is a desperation aggro plan. Phyrexian Obliterator is a great card, but quadruple black is difficult to come by. Wish hands will most often be keepable with LED, which gets you to BBB, so ideally the creature you fetch would not have more than BBB in its CMC. The beater plan, while likely unrealistic Game 1, is at least a way to win without needing Ballustrade Spy or an Undercity Informer, so it has that going for it. Questions to consider: Are there any other cyclers out there that could improve the odds of the cycling plan? Are there other ways to win the game that we could incorporate to not be reliant on Ballustrade Spy or Undercity Informer? If a man plan is a realistic plan B, which are the best targets?
What these hurdles have in common is a need to add pieces in order to improve consistency: mana sources, protection, enablers, backup plans. If there was a way to shrink the kill package, then more space could be allotted to initial mana sources or protection or tutors. I think it would be helpful to focus on this part first and to try to come up with a list of kill packages with an aim to use the fewest cards. Tightening this part also would reap benefits when boarding, as it makes transformational sideboards more feasible. We also should focus more on postboard plans.
My opinion is that this deck is not currently viable, but I don't think all the options have been explored yet, and I think there have been some interesting ideas expressed. I also think this thread needs to seriously weigh the pros and cons this deck has versus just running Charbelcher. Charbelcher has essentially fixed the IMS problem by way of Land Grant, Tinder Wall, and red rituals, and it has a kill package that requires fewer cards than this deck. Flexibility and protection are the two areas where it runs into severe limitations.
Completely agree.
The best alternative is chancellor of the tangle but it's a terrible top-deck and is a non-bo with cyclers. Mox opal is possible too but terribly inconsistent.
This is one of the primary reasons why I think living wish is correct. Living wish acts as wild cantor 6-9.
This is why I don't play the deck.
Another reason why I think living wish is correct.
See previous page for the kill package involving only 4 cards.
Someone explain Underworld Cerberusfor me?
Hrm...yes - because it returns them to your hand, not the battlefield. So how does the kill work?
Seriously, try searching the thread.
I've been running Underworld Cerberus instead of Azami and Angel... and he's fantastic. Combo goes: dread return UC, sack to therapy, hard cast maniac (spirit guides + wild cantor), cycle street wraith, win.
Tusk up.
Thanks! I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing a trick....which I was.
I agree with you here.
That's the problem, though; people will ALWAYS be playing decks with Force of Will. This deck will never make it out of the developmental stages if it always folds to Force of Will (e.g., the Spanish Inquisition).
I agree with nudon on this one. If you're worried about consistency issues, Living Wish is the way to go, as it's incredibly easy to cast in this deck (12-16 green initial mana sources). While I'm currently working with the Wish-less list, I would never rule out running Living Wish, or Goblin Charbelcher main for that matter. Both cards increase consistency and both cards tend to appeal to their own niche. Goblin Charbelcher as a win con. that's unaffected by graveyard hate and Living Wish as a win con. tutor and as a utility.
We need to be able to beat FoW--agreed. But, I believe Unmask is one of our best solutions, aside from Pact of Negation. I apologize if I sound overly critical, but your analysis here consists of you deeming Unmask unusable, deeming Pact of negation conditionally unusable, and then the solution you provide is to just not play this deck at all or to simply "find another way"... in a no land deck (and Chancellor of the Annex, Silence, Orim's Chant is not that way--sorry). Let me put your mind at ease when I say, the Rogue Hermit DOES contain enough black cards to supplement Unmask (or it at least has the potential to). 4x Dark Ritual, 4x Cabal Ritual, 4x Undercity Informer, 4x Balustrade Spy, 4x Street Wraith, 4x Cabal Therapy, with room for several more, especially if you're playing nudon's version (that means nearly half the deck is black, 1:2). Also, I recommend only playing 2-3 copies of Unmask, to decrease the probability of getting both Chrome Mox and Unmask in your opening 7 (simply because they're both -1 card disadvantage, not because of limited black cards). With 4x Chrome Mox and 2x Unmask, the probability of drawing just one of these cards in your opening hand is a measly 7%, making the likelihood of drawing two minuscule. Let's approach this logically with a hypothesis: If Unmask is added to the Rogue Hermit, then the Rogue Hermit will perform better against blue decks. The easiest way to statistically test this would be to play-test the Rogue Hermit, with and without Unmask, against various blue decks, while recording the win percentages for comparison. And from my own play-testing I can honestly say with certainty, Unmask allows the Rogue Hermit to perform better against blue decks, especially when used in conjunction with Pact of Negation. But, I encourage you not to take my word and to conduct your own testing. The more research the better.
I couldn't agree with you more. Like I said earlier, I really like nudon's 4-card win con.
To answer your hypothesis, Unmask will improve the Force of Will matchups only if you can go off immediately afterward.
One problem with Unmask is that this deck usually requires six to seven cards in hand to win, first to generate an initial mana or two and often a card to filter the mana to black, then a Ritual to make Spy or Informer castable -- assuming you have Spy or Informer at all and aren't just keeping a speculative hand and hoping to cycle into one of your enablers. Obviously, if you're on a speculative hand, you have to cycle away Street Wraith, which would ordinarily be your best black card to pitch to Unmask. The black cards are the most critical in the deck because they are your enablers and your rituals. If you pitch a black card to Unmask, you're going to be down two cards from your opening hand. So that would work only when you have excess Rituals or excess enablers or just a perfect mix of exactly what you need. What hands do you commonly see with this deck where that is anywhere realistic? I don't think I have ever seen a hand that contained that many surplus black cards and also was a hand that could go off.
I tested Unmask and found it unrealistic unless the black count was increased significantly. I welcome you to post real opening hands, mulligans, etc. I don't think I can be the only one who thinks this deck needs all the stars to align in order for it to succeed. I feel the best chance this deck has is shrinking the kill package. I like the brainstorming that Nudon has done, but I wonder if we can come up with anything more compact.
With all due respect to Nudon, his attempt to improve the deck by reducing the number of dead cards game 1 has only made it worse games 2/3 because it can't SB out Lion's Eye Diamond and Living Wish effectively.
Define viable? It is certainly a popular deck in the mtgo metagame and has placed 4-0 or 3-1 quite many times in the recent daily events. I agree it's not a deck that can win a big tournament, but it can win you some prices as long as you dodge the FoW matchups. Currently I don't even like testing legacy decks in the TP room in mtgo because every 4th or 5th match will be against this deck.
And yes I agree that mtgo is a different than irl. But it's a thing to consider too.
With regards to living wish, I don't think it should be boarded out in most instances since it provides the deck with so much versatility. It represents a balustrade spy, anti-graveyard hate bombs, and color fixing. Even without LED, I assumed we were on the same boat with living wish being essential to the deck. That said, you can still board out living wish if you so choose. Instead of winning with lab maniac, one can replace noxious revival with tendrils of agony.
LED, on the other hand, definitely cannot be boarded out due to being part of the kill. As a result, pact of negation, the deck's strongest sb option, becomes quite awkward. Even so, other storm decks (including belcher) have found several ways of combating FoW without counter-magic. Whether those methods are successful is another story. I think most blue players will counter the rogues and wishes because failing to do so allows cabal therapy (brought in game 2/3 with 7/11 chance of hitting) to potentially strip their FoW. This represents anywhere from 2 to 4 mana investment. Carpet of flowers allows us to recover more quickly while not diluting our combo. Moreover with the threat of cabal therapy, one can even choose to bring in pact of negation if they want to get cute. Carsten Kotter briefly talks about this option in his latest article. Though I personally would look at other alternatives first, I believe pact of negation is more viable than given credit for. On a side note, have you had any success with the dread return kill? In order for the deck to be more consistent, it has to find reliable ways of fighting through FoW. The best options discussed between us and others on this thread seem to be pact of negation, chancellor of the annex, xantid swarm, and cabal therapy.
Yes, I've been more or less successful with Dread Return, the "revelation" for me was that SBing out Lion's Eye Diamond AND Living Wish and playing 8 win conditions only caused me to have to mulligan ~25% of the time more often so I could play a full set of Pact of Negation and Xantid Swarm post-board vs all the blue decks that only ran Surgical Extraction effects. Basically you lose a card "virtually" in order to reduce the average cost of your win condition via mulliganing and load up on anti-counter goods.
Nobody plays Crypt anymore, which is why this deck is viable right now IMO.
From what I understand, this deck has been posting results on MODO and it's also put up some T16 and even a T2 result. People recognize the deck and play it at locals. To me, that's enough to be in Established. All we need is a decent primer.
I'm cool with writing the primer, but I recognize that nudon has put way more work into this deck than I have. Nudon, if you'd like to have the honor I'd be more than willing to step down. Otherwise, I'm just going to write a decent primer over the next several days, get it vetted by y'all, then ask a mod to promote this thread to Established.
Any complaints / comments / feedback?
Languages and dates for every set. For all you true pimps.
But people do play Rest in Peace and Deathrite Shaman. Both of which also hose us.
Greg, you can go ahead and write the primer. I really appreciate the gesture though. :) Also, I would like to recognize those who have contributed feedback on this thread as well (FinalFortune, DireLemming, yourself, etc.). Some topics I think you would want to include are:
1. To living wish or not to living wish
2. Dread return vs. past in flames
3. IMS options
4. Color fixing - how to generate black mana
5. Protection options: pact of negation, xantid swarm, carpet of flowers, chancellor of the annex
Good luck!
Really looking forward to see the primer!
I played against this deck the other day in Modo and the guy pulled a win with The Mimeoplasm. Is that something that is already discussed in this thread? I am not sure how good option that is compared to the Lab Maniac kill, but its an interesting take nevertheless.
Yes, it was discussed. It was determined to be generally inferior to the Lab Maniac kill. Essentially, winning without needing an attack step is better than having to win via attacking. (And if he's using Triskelion, that loses to Leyline of Sanctity.) Personally, I would much prefer the visceral feeling of stomping on someone with a giant monster, but if I were going to run this deck in a tournament, I would be playing the superior win condition.
Superior is a loose term, I still think the Sutured Ghoul kill is the best because it requires the least amount of MD slots and kills immediately.
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