Chinese fakes

[Lt. Quattro]

Does anyone expect Legacy and current Modern to survive longterm (say over the next 5 years) after this news developed?

I'm fully expecting a singles market crash in 2014. I think all it will take is a few counterfeits to show up at tournaments or be sold from "reputable" online dealers to do irreprable harm to consumer confidence.

Looking at the price difference of underground sea fom Jan. 09 to Jan. 14 i'm going to say no.

[Lord_Mcdonalds]

Looking at the price difference of underground sea fom Jan. 09 to Jan. 14 i'm going to say no.

I believe the saying is rome wasn't built in a day

That being said, I highly doubt this will affect scg/retailers, if they make a living off it, they will find a way to verify the authenticity of cards to protect their integrity as a respectable seller, if they don't already have such things in place.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

yeah between 300-1200

im not saying you'll get an underground sea every month but think about it....

If you have a full time job shit happens during the week. Below is just an example of something that happens probably very regularly to a majority of people.

you eat out for lunch 2 days a week cause your running late to work and you don't pack one. $15

you eat out to dinner 3 times a week cause you work late and don't want to make something. $30

you go to the bar at least once a week $50 (twice a week for $25.... tip, few beers, drinks for a girl)

Thats 1 week and you are at $95 .... for a month x 4 = $380 and that is very conservative. Its at the bottom of the beta dual range but still will enable someone to play legacy with almost whatever deck they want in a month or two.

lets say you eat out much more often.....

lunch $7 x 5 days = $25
dinner $10 x 5 days = $50 ($10 for a dinner is pretty cheap unless your eating mcdonalds value menu every meal)
Bar $25 x 3 days = $75 ($25 for a bar trip is pretty good... if you get shots add another $20)
$150 / week x 4 = $600 <-----defiantly in beta dual range, almost blue dual range

Everybody who lives like that would have word with my wife.
"Hello honey, I camelate to work, and now I'm eating in some restaurant, brb. Oh, but maybe I'll go to the bar. What? The one I was to the day before yesterday. What you mean which bar? The one where I order drinks to girls, you know? Ok, perfect, I'll call you once I get my ass out of the pub. Fine! I love you too! Later!"

[Stephan/]

Where's a post somewhere burried in the Salvation thread about this topic. Maybe someone can bother to dig it out.

Edit: It was about these ones from the MTG Salvation thread:



Not sure if the Salvation thread also contains the story behind it, but in the 4chan thread, it was said that a guy compared his Lilianas bought from SCG and one of those was a fake one.

^^ doesn't look like fake, just normal variance in printing occurring very often. The guy posting these photos from several "fake cards" is already suspended on MTG Salvation.

[Dice_Box]

What thread is that? Sorry I know only two sub fourms on the site, over moderated legacy and modern.

Also, just to add. Banned/Suspended on Salvation means nothing. I know what happened with Gutter over there, it ain't mean shit if the mods turn on you.

[dontbiteitholmes]

Does anyone expect Legacy and current Modern to survive longterm (say over the next 5 years) after this news developed?

I'm fully expecting a singles market crash in 2014. I think all it will take is a few counterfeits to show up at tournaments or be sold from "reputable" online dealers to do irreprable harm to consumer confidence.

No.

I don't think the singles market will crash this year so much as deflate over the next 2-3 year. Once people start buying fake money cards and realizing they've spent $100 for literally nothing it's going to be impossible to keep people in the game.

[DLifshitz]

^^ doesn't look like fake, just normal variance in printing occurring very often. The guy posting these photos from several "fake cards" is already suspended on MTG Salvation.

This. It's entirely possible these come from different print runs or different printers, or it could be random variations. And a guy who's paranoid or has an axe to grind with SCG. I suspect that actual counterfeits have more imperfections than that.

[Barook]

This. It's entirely possible these come from different print runs or different printers, or it could be random variations. And a guy who's paranoid or has an axe to grind with SCG. I suspect that actual counterfeits have more imperfections than that.

^^ doesn't look like fake, just normal variance in printing occurring very often.

I fail to see how the difference between normal and bold font is a variance in print.

@Dice_Box: This thread - feel free to sift throught it.

No.

I don't think the singles market will crash this year so much as deflate over the next 2-3 year. Once people start buying fake money cards and realizing they've spent $100 for literally nothing it's going to be impossible to keep people in the game.

People who get staples and don't plan on selling them also spent those 100$ on "nothing". People who want to liquidate their collection anyway at some point are fucked, but the rest wouldn't care as long as playing the game is viable.

We'll have to wait and see how hard it hits the LSGs and SCG and how much it would ruin the tournament scene. There might be a shift in business strategies, but I can't see a mass extinction of LSGs going on. If a vital part of your revenue is selling old Legacy staples in times where the internet is your competitor, you've probably chosen the wrong business strategy anyway.

All we can say fore sure is that

a) hoarding and speculating on money cards has become a terrible idea now and
b) shady business practices like buying out staples to resell them at a higher price come to end.

Prices of staples are certainly going to drop, but to what extend, we have to wait and see. It's also interesting how Wizards reacts to the entire issue down the road, considering "We have already found our solution to the fakes, too bad we don't care about you - get lost!" is a PR nightmare that might even get shareholders interested since Wizards is a healthy part of Hasbro's income.

[Dragonslayer_90]

Prices of staples are certainly going to drop, but to what extend, we have to wait and see. It's also interesting how Wizards reacts to the entire issue down the road, considering "We have already found our solution to the fakes, too bad we don't care about you - get lost!" is a PR nightmare that might even get shareholders interested since Wizards is a healthy part of Hasbro's income.

Could you clarify what you mean by shareholders getting "interested" from the PR nightmare? Do you mean to say that they'll pressure hasbro to make Wizards care about the market for old cards or something like that?

[Dice_Box]

^^ doesn't look like fake, just normal variance in printing occurring very often. The guy posting these photos from several "fake cards" is already suspended on MTG Salvation.

Ok, done some reading, the guy in question appears to have been hit for being a total ass and being hyper aggression against the mods, not for the photos.

[Barook]

Could you clarify what you mean by shareholders getting "interested" from the PR nightmare? Do you mean to say that they'll pressure hasbro to make Wizards care about the market for old cards or something like that?

I don't think shareholders would pressure Wizards to do anything, but Wizards might do something to keep them satisfied, just like the RL is around to prevent PR backlash (be it from lawsuits or whatever).

Every Modern staple is affected, too, and Modern has become MtG's second biggest constructed format last year. Ignoring that playerbase seems like a bad move.

Plus, they can't move shitty premium products with single chase cards if prices go down the drain - and that does affect Wizards' income to an extend.

[Dice_Box]

Yea, imagine the price of Mind Sieze if TNN had been 2 bucks online... That's going to be a reality soon.

[nedleeds]

If you make an investment, let's say you buy a Legacy deck for 2000 $ because of Wotc promise not to reprint Reserved List card and they break their promise AND you lose money (which is not sure, just look at MM Tarmogoyf, but it's still a possibility) because your deck is now worth 1000 $ you can sue them for 1000 $. In general, if you make an investment because of a promise and the promise is broken, you can sue them and get the money you lost.

I'm not going to do that but Hasbro was afraid that people could do that, not because of the money but because of the bad press.

Shareholders don't like companies that are being sued. Companies with shareholders are only interested in making profit and money. Do you really think that they give a **** about a promise, when they can make money, because of breaking it? Some big guy at Hasbro considered that the risk of a lawsuit is not worth the money they could make of Reserved List cards.

The depth of ignorance on this topic is deep as the fucking ocean.

a) In America you can generally get a lawyer to write a civil suit against anyone for just about anything. I can sue you for being a retard on a message board. It'll likely be a waste of my time and money and the only one to benefit will be my lawyer.

b) Stop saying promise. "Policy". Read that word carefully. A policy is not a promise. A policy is current. It has been changed before and can change again.

c) Nobody is winning a lawsuit against WotC because of perceived lost value on their speculative collectibles because they change their companies current policy on reprints.

d) There are many cases were value of cards has been undercut because of other reasons (obsolescence, bannings, etc.). Nobody (to my knowledge) sued. There are also examples of cards for which reprints had no impact or the card continued to skyrocket (see: Beta Wrath of God, Blood Moon).

e) You can make an argument that the ill will that would be directed at WotC from a segment of their customers, the long time collectors would be a deterrent to abolishing the reserved list. I'd argue however that that segment is shrinking every year with respect to those who own primarily post Masques cards.

f) Commander. It's an eternal format WotC has clearly indicated they are interested in profiting from.

The shareholder response to this in the face of hasbro as a whole would like a thimble of tears in the ocean. It would have a negligible effect on the shareholder value. Possibly negated by some nice hefty sales of Commander: Fuck the Reserved List, or From the Vaults: 10 Duals (which ironically would just increase the value of dual lands).

[Star|Scream]

The depth of ignorance on this topic is deep as the fucking ocean.

a) In America you can generally get a lawyer to write a civil suit against anyone for just about anything. I can sue you for being a retard on a message board. It'll likely be a waste of my time and money and the only one to benefit will be my lawyer.

b) Stop saying promise. "Policy". Read that word carefully. A policy is not a promise. A policy is current. It has been changed before and can change again.

c) Nobody is winning a lawsuit against WotC because of perceived lost value on their speculative collectibles because they change their companies current policy on reprints.

d) There are many cases were value of cards has been undercut because of other reasons (obsolescence, bannings, etc.). Nobody (to my knowledge) sued. There are also examples of cards for which reprints had no impact or the card continued to skyrocket (see: Beta Wrath of God, Blood Moon).

e) You can make an argument that the ill will that would be directed at WotC from a segment of their customers, the long time collectors would be a deterrent to abolishing the reserved list. I'd argue however that that segment is shrinking every year with respect to those who own primarily post Masques cards.

f) Commander. It's an eternal format WotC has clearly indicated they are interested in profiting from.

The shareholder response to this in the face of hasbro as a whole would like a thimble of tears in the ocean. It would have a negligible effect on the shareholder value. Possibly negated by some nice hefty sales of Commander: Fuck the Reserved List, or From the Vaults: 10 Duals (which ironically would just increase the value of dual lands).

Thank you for bringing some sense to the discussion.

[Barook]

Yea, imagine the price of Mind Sieze if TNN had been 2 bucks online... That's going to be a reality soon.

Sure, it applies to Mind Seize as well, but I was more thinking about future products.

Imagine they would sell "From the Vaults: Spellcraft" or whatever with 14-19 crappy cards and a Force of Will - of course it would sell like candy (even with ugly new art, border and holostamp), with LGS jacking up the prices to 100+$ from the initial 40$. Let's assume shit hits the fan and due to fakes, FoW's price would drop to 20$. While it would still get the sales, it certainly would get neither the hype nor would it fetch the insane prices (which intentionally feed the LGS with money).

There's also the part of the Kitchen EDH/Cube players who never play in tournaments. Demand of those for old staples that might be reprinted in new Commander sets ceases as well (although that is more of a secondary market "problem").

[Kage]

Honest questions: If reprints are supposed to tank the price of older cards, how come Beta Birds of Paradise is still 200+ dollars, when it has been reprinted no less than 13 times, and has been / is a format staple in every environment it has ever been legal? Alpha Shivan Dragon is 800+ bucks and it's a casual card at best.

Also if you want your old cards to retain value over X year would it really matter if it's 15 or 150 bucks?

[Stephan/]

I fail to see how the difference between normal and bold font is a variance in print.

^^ none of them is in bold font - just variance. Although these two might be at extremes of the spectrum - one is to thin and one to thick in letters (also depends on amount of printing ink). Probably most of us own such cards, some even more than 10+ years old, some newer planeswalkers with white on black font where you realize easier .... they are even not able to make every corner cut exactly the same and errors just occur, thus don't blame them for using different printers for different printruns just because you are in panic. But if you want to, search your collection and destroy all "fakes" ;) - I can even make more pictures from other cards to show you that the "fakes" are everywhere xD

[Stan]

Honest questions: If reprints are supposed to tank the price of older cards, how come Beta Birds of Paradise is still 200+ dollars, when it has been reprinted no less than 13 times, and has been / is a format staple in every environment it has ever been legal? Alpha Shivan Dragon is 800+ bucks and it's a casual card at best.

Also if you want your old cards to retain value over X year would it really matter if it's 15 or 150 bucks?

The sort of people who like to play the kitchen table with style tend to be the ones who pimp out fun casual decks. Dragons are one of the most played casual decks, and Shivan is and has always been iconic. Hence the Price tag. I have a pimped out 60 card highlander dragon deck too. My Shivan is a Russian foil, if I had the means to get an Alpha specimen instead, I would switch it in a heartbeat. Very fun deck to play by the way.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

The sort of people who like to play the kitchen table with style tend to be the ones who pimp out fun casual decks. Dragons are one of the most played casual decks, and Shivan is and has always been iconic. Hence the Price tag. I have a pimped out 60 card highlander dragon deck too. My Shivan is a Russian foil, if I had the means to get an Alpha specimen instead, I would switch it in a heartbeat. Very fun deck to play by the way.

Pichurez or didn't happen. And I'm 101% cereous... I want to see it, please!

[Stan]

Pichurez or didn't happen. And I'm 101% cereous... I want to see it, please!

I already tried to upload pictures from my phone on this site, it doesn't work for some reason. We're talking about this:

https://www.magiccardmarket.eu/Shiva....c1p17733.prod

Paid 12 euro for it back in the day.