The real question that should be asked here is "When is gut shot good?"
If Gut Shot dealt 2 damage it would be MUCH better as it would have a much larger kill range. However, because it only deals 1 damage, there aren't as many creatures we can kill the deck we board it in vs. it ends up being dead quite often.
The Bad Matchups for this deck are:
Fast Combo
Jund
MUD
Loam-based decks
Merfolk Goblin Elves, Fast Aggro in general
Vs. Jund you can only kill Dark Confidant so usually it is dead, but if it can kill a Dark Confidant it's good. However you wouldn't board in a card JUST to deal with Dark Confidant.
You can't really expect to target anything vs. Fast Combo except MAYBE Xantid Swarm if you're boarding it in at all or Children of Koilos if the opponent is a Tin Fins deck and is stupid.
Obviously the creatures in MUD are too big to Gut Shot
You can kill Dark Confidant vs. Loam Based decks but that's about it.
VS. Merfolk you can only kill cursecatcher, vs. Goblins you can kill Goblin Lackey so that's decent, vs. Elves you have A LOT of targets including Heritage Druid, Quirion Ranger, Wirewood Symbiote, Elvish Visionary, etc.. You MIGHT board it in to kill Goblin Lackey and you would DEFINITELY board it in vs. elves.
Vs. the decks we are bad against, we can only kill Dark Confidant, Xantid Swarn, Goblin Lackey, and A LOT of elves. It seems the only matchup that you would really board it in vs. is Elves to help the matchup tremendously but vs. other decks it just isn't very useful.
Of course there are a lot of other creatures we could kill such as delver of secrets or phyrexian revoker but those are in decks that don't need improvement in matchups. Unless Gut Shot is in the sideboard specifically to improve the Elves matchup I'm failing to see the big idea in it.
12-post Discord: https://discord.gg/QxYVg3g
So are you having trouble with delver decks? Is that why you are including gut shots?
I think they are a good addition if you have a ton of delver in the meta. They avoid daze and if the rug player does counter it, that's just one less counter for show and tell.
The only problem I see with gutshot is that it doesnt kill much other than the unflipped delver.
Although it's nice vs elves, I haven't had much of a problem in that match anyways. Elves doesn't run wasteland so glacial chasm is boss in this match.
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Just returned from a 62 man event with a disappointing finish, playing the RUG no candelabra list.
R1 vs junk depths, 0-2: loam-waste lock both games. In G2 I manage to play ulamog but the single card he had was smallpox.
R2 vs Affinity, 2-1: G1 he races me, G2 I bounce and bolt some stuff and play a fast emrakul, G3 glacial chasm saves me while I assemble mana and finish him with bonfire
R3 vs Canadian RUG, 2-1: he wins G1 with stifle on titan cib and then turning him (with turn // burn) and bolting him. G2 I beat him with titan then finish him with bonfire; G3 I clean his board of 2 delvers with bonfire, then assemble ugin + emmy
R4 vs Reanimator, 0-2: G1 he's on the play and exhumes jin on turn 3, I brainstorm->fetch->brainstorm but don't find karakas. In G2 I open a seven with both fow and swan song, he discards my titan then try to reanimate him: I counter his first attemp but on his second he has fow for my fow. I made a mistake in crop rotating into cloudpost instead glacial chasm tough.
The list felt good and I surely need more testing against the more troublesome matchups.
Btw, I would like to read your comments on how to side and play against loam.
The list:
// Lands
2 [ZEN] Misty Rainforest
1 [WWK] Eye of Ugin
4 [SOM] Glimmerpost
4 [MR] Cloudpost
1 [LG] Karakas
1 [LRW] Island
4 [R] Tropical Island
2 [TSP] Vesuva
1 [ON] Polluted Delta
1 [ON] Flooded Strand
1 [ZEN] Scalding Tarn
3 [R] Volcanic Island
// Creatures
4 [M12] Primeval Titan
1 [ROE] Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
1 [ROE] Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 [ROE] Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
// Spells
3 [UL] Crop Rotation
4 [5E] Brainstorm
4 [CHK] Sensei's Divining Top
4 [GP] Repeal
4 [US] Show and Tell
3 [M12] Ponder
3 [AVR] Bonfire of the Damned
3 [4E] Lightning Bolt
// Sideboard
SB: 3 [THS] Swan Song
SB: 1 bojuka bog
SB: 1 glacial chasm
SB: 2 [CMD] Flusterstorm
SB: 4 [ME] Force of Will
SB: 2 [FUT] Venser, Shaper Savant
SB: 2 pithing needle
Ignorance is strength
12-post Discord: https://discord.gg/QxYVg3g
Today I won the Lost Harbor Jace, the Mind Sculptor legacy tourney in Westfield, MA. 5 rounds double elim. I ran this:
[MD]
4 Cloudpost
4 Glimmerpost
2 Vesuva
1 Cavern of Souls
3 Island
4 Tropical Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Bajouka Bog
1 Karakas
1 Eye of Ugin
4 Primeval Titan
1 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Oracle of Mul Daya
4 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Brainstorm
2 Ponder
3 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
2 Candelabra of Townos
2 Pithing Needle
4 Repeal
4 Show and Tell
[SB]
4 Flusterstorm
4 Force of Will
4 Swan Song
2 Cursed Totem
1 Glacial Chasm
Overall, I'm pleased with the list. It has also tested well in general. Oracle, ponder, crop rotation, cavern of souls, and flusterstorm were very strong performers. Chasm was better in the side in this meta (thanks, Rock Lee). I might go +1 Ponder, -1 Map going forward but I'm not sure; I like attacking tempo with early permanents.
I'm also considering adding 1 GSZ. I think it'll play well with ponder.
@Gut Shot: I prefer my SB cards to have broad application, and I don't think gut shot cuts it for me. I'm comfortable right now relying on force of will and repeal to deal with early threats. Also 2 toughness is huge in legacy. I'd suggest playing pongify/rapid hybridization first. Most creatures shouldn't bother your plan, if it's THAT bad, then they can have a 3/3.
Since going to 4 ponder and including Fow I haven't had problems with Jund at all. Gut Shot is not there for that matchup.
It is there 90% for Elves and Death and Taxes, 10% for random aggro (affinity/goblins) or other combo with X/1's.
I feel so confident with the rest of that matchups with the current list that the sideboard can afford 3 open slots, and no other card stops two major early-game contestors with odd openers, that being Elves & D&T, like gut shot does.
Triple Island of my build goes a long way vs Junk Depths, and you essentially transform into a basic-island combo deck, that is always looking for an opportunity to blow them out with an instant bojuka bog.
Vs Reanimator you ALWAYS side out primeval titan specially for this circumstance. Eldrazi are "safe" creatures in that they can't be reanimated, and you have plenty to side in vs them anyway.
I had one needle on liliana and then needed to cast the second on trespian stage because I finished my repeals, so wasteland got me. Anyway at some point he played engineered explosive @1 and blew me away.
Surely three basic lands gives you an edge, but that's a luxury I don't think the 3 color version can afford (Altough I will try -1 tropical +1 forest at this point).
But wasteland is not the real problem: liliana and, most of all, loam are. Do you think a sigle bojuka is enough to address grave problematic cards? Do you side in some counter in this matchup? I'm almost contemplating about adding some life from the loam in the side myself...
About Reanimator: wow, the thought of sideing out titans didn't cross my mind but I can see now that's a correct choice. I guess practice and knowledge of the deck is tech.
Since you're sideing out titans, do you side out S&T as well?
A note on the UGr version: I really like it since it has many control elements and bonfire helps both in stalling than in closing the match. The next tournament, however, I will try the UG version with candelabra because I want to understand the difference between the two.
Thank you all for your help!!!
Ignorance is strength
Did you go for some serious money investment? :)
I didn't test the UGr build for a long time, but i think you'll find the plain UG one generally better. Of course you have to keep an eye on opponents creatures, because you cannot simply rely on miracling a bonfire or shooting a bolt to them, but you gain a lot in mana stability. The UGr mana base is a total mess, a single wasteland can really put you out of the game; basically, every land your opponent may target could ruin your plan.
Your jund matchup is going to worse, anyway. This and his blue cousin (BUG delver) are the only fair decks i fear, due to the high discard amount paired with an high pressure. Merfolk is tough too, but most of the merfolk players have gone greedy and added a full set of TNN, slowing down their aggro plan. That's why i suggest bringing some good ol' sweepers with you if you think your meta could be filled with these contenders.
No, I bent myself at playing with two proxies... shame on me ^_^
I think I'll really miss bonfire which has performed very well for me, but I want to try all the versions to find the one that fits me better.
I don't think that a single wasteland is so much of a problem though: usually the first target is a locus so the colored lands are safe, a kind of. Even if they see my hand (ie with discard) and destroy a colored land I can usually find a replacement with all the cantrips in the deck.
What really destroys this deck is, obviously, a wasteland lock: with the UG version at least you can afford to play 3-4 basic lands to ensure casting S&T, but it is a tough scenario anyway. I think that more grave hate is needed if you're playing ponder instead of expedition map (that can search infallibly for bojuka bog).
In any case I'll find room for at least 2 oblivion stone in the 75's for the UG version.
Ignorance is strength
Thanks! Good luck. The meta in New England is heavily net decked and more or less mimics the most recent SCG top finishes. Elves is huge. Sneak, DnT, loam decks, bug delver, rug delver, patriot delver, all stone blade. It's pretty open.
I also agree that the only huge holes right now are elves and DnT (omni would be too but it's falling out of style), and I chose to go with the cursed totem to hit them hard. It's sick against elves, and with needles DnT is even more contained that I don't feel pressured. I usually force of will vial, aven, and revoker - and needle/totem take care of the rest. What's sweet is to side in totem at all stoneforge as a bonus haha. Plus, it hits griselbrand.
Ive had success using FOW and needle early to keep those shenanigans in check long enough to move on. Do you still side in all the counters? However, I hate that damn deck so much I'll test the gut shots! I wish there was a land with a 1 dmg enter the battlefield trigger lol
I've been tinkering with turbo eldrazi a bit because the metagame seems pretty favorable to it. I went back and continued working on a bant list because I really liked how the list played a bit like miracles but with more inevitability. This is what I'm at right now, curious if anyone has any suggestions to change it.
Creatures (9)
4x Primeval Titan
1x Emrakul, the Aeons Atorn
1x Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
1x Ulamog the Infinite Gyre
2x Snapcaster Mage
Spells (26)
4x Swords to Plowshares
3x Terminus
2x Engineered Explosives
4x Brainstorm
4x Sensei's Divining Top
2x Ponder
4x Show and Tell
3x Crop Rotation
Lands (26)
4x Flooded Strand
3x Misty Rainforest
3x Tundra
2x Tropical Island
2x Savannah
1x Island
4x Glimmerpost
4x Cloudpost
2x Karakas
1x Eye of Ugin
The snapcaster mage has been pretty good in this version. He can either buy back swords to give you more control; buy back brainstorm to give you manipulation; or buy back show and tell to give you gas. Terminus has also been situationally amazing. I also cut pretty much all of the situational lands to consistently get colored mana to start using swords and brainstorm.
I'm also curious what the main plan vs sneak show is for you guys. I know you board in the 8-12 counters+ venser and needle. Needle naming sneak is probably the best target on a blind name as this deck has a lot of outs to show. Another problem is that a resolved moon is pretty much impossible to win against unless I already have a pretty good board presence. What have you guys been doing to better this matchup?
Quick thing: take out the second Karakas. We only need one and it's more of the bonus than a necessity. Plus even under the new legend rule, multiples are a pain. Also, when you say "Terminus has also been situationally amazing" (emphasis: mine), I grow suspicious of just how good it is. But even though I'm weary of splashing white for Bant-Post, I'm interested as to how it works compared to Simic-Post.
I'm curious how Snapcaster Mage tests. Keep us posted because the normal go to little-utility-guy-that-can is Trinket Mage.
My current plan for Sneak n Show:
G1: Force of Will the Show and Tell or Sneak Attack, preferably exiling my Show and Tell to pay for the alt. cost because like hell I'm going to accelerate their plan for them. Then pray my follow-up is better than their follow up. It's not guaranteed, but God tends to answer my prayers to survive game 1 more often through Force of Will than me requesting God to mana flood my opponent.
G2&3: Bring in Swan Song and Flusterstorm... but really Swan Song. Then keep praying God favors my counter magic.
And about Blood Moon: There are two ways to get around a Blood Moon in my experience.
1. Make sure you get a basic Island onto the field. Then when you have enough mana and a counter (Force of Will or Swan Song), Repeal the Blood Moon, then counter it when they recast it. The drawback is that it's a contrivance to pull this off, but the positive is it's possible (I've done it) and doesn't require eating sideboard space.
2. Make sure you get a basic Forest onto the field, then Nature's Claim it. The drawback is that your siding a card that we don't need that often and putting a Forest into the deck, which while not bad, is not necessary (at the moment) because we needmore, but the positive is that it gets the job done without investing extra resources (1 card instead of 2) aside from winning the counter war that may or may not ensue. And as a side note, when substituting Blood Moon with Choke, I really want to give 2 a shot.
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