I have a quick question for you experienced pilots out there about mulliganing. I find I'm having some trouble getting trapped on hands that seem to be on the borderline of really explosive, and then they just sort of flop. I know not every hand can be discard + business + LED or something else great like that, but I'm wondering how you draw the line on when a hand likely won't get there. I think Brainstorm isn't quite the hand-fixer Ponder is, just due to the low number of shuffle effects. I tend to shy away from hands with, say, only chrome mox as initial mana, since even if it plays well, it was still effectively a mulligan. I'm sure a lot of it comes down to how risk-averse you are, but anyone else have some thoughts on how you keep or mulligan?
Could you be more specific and post examples and situations, game 1 and games 2 and 3 are different from one another because of perfect information, mulligans with perfect information and having the initiative or being on the draw.Originally Posted by wonderPreaux
Post a hand, give a condition and people can offer better feedback than generalities.
@ Lemnear: I do see your point, but on the other hand you play ponder, but need for example 1 tutor and one mana source and ponder shows you the tutor and 2 discard spells. Of course you want the tutor, but definitely not the discard. How much would you pay to get a shuffle effect there? Or you are looking only for one tutor and have BS in hand. You cast it to go off, because enemy can't do anything now, not having a fetch. BS shows you everything but a shuffle or tutor. Brainstorm Lock for next 2 rounds. That sucks at least as much as your mentioned situations.
And I really want to Terror that Krosan Cloudscraper that's attacking me..
Come on, sure you can create artifical gamestates where a fetchland would be better than a second Volcanic, but do you really believe that comes up more often then the fact that its getting wasted/ported?
That is just my experience, i was almost never dependent on a red source before. Of course this might happen, but as i said before, there are good reasons to play this cards, too.
And please stay serious and don't try to be kidding me.
The first question here is what hand you've kept here which needs mana + business but only has a Ponder to fix that. Essentially, if you fight against a goldfish here and really don't want the discard, I would simply shuffle away that pile and prefer a random draw of mana/tutor/Wish/cantrip than bricking for at least 2 turns here. I rather have 3 random draws in a row than guaranteed bricking for at least 2 turns if you refuse to shuffle.
For scenario 2 you have 4 Wish, 4 Tutor, 4 Fetch, 4 Ponder, 4 Probes and 3 more Brainstorms to draw into with your three drawn cards (not to talk about additional Ponder/etc in your hand). That's more than 1/3 of your deck preventing you from "Brainstorm lock for the next 2 turns". This also rises the question if you could afford to wait with BS for a turn and see one extra card if you only need the infernal and outright explode into your opps face. I did "Brainstorm lock myself for 2 turns" a total of 4 times since picking up the deck. In all other scenarios you can avoid that with a bit of planning.
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Omega, if you just want the additional fetch,put it in your deck.
No one forces you to play the cards like we do.
- Team RUG-STAR Berlin -
Please do not get me wrong, i do play the manabase this way as you said. I just wanted to show my point of view and another option. It is ok, if you guys play with the second volcanic!
It is just not ok to say that it is absolutely wrong. It is different, that's all about it.
But now a new question:
the 3 new discard spells, royce played 3 duress, bryant 2 TS + 1 duress if i am right?
What do you guys think about it, what is possibly better, what do you prefer and please WHY?
Ps and offtopic: Is there anybody (in Germany) who has i tropical island for sale? Please PM!
It was just about weighting upsides and downsides and the result was adding the second Volcanic. Royce played 2 Duress and a Preordain because the Thoughtseize damage lost him a game(s) before. I would switch numbers here on the fly in a response to your expected meta. If you don't expect too much Meddling Mages/Thalia/Canonist/Cliques/etc. but a lot of Delver in your meta, playing only with Duress is valid as playing with 3 Thoughtseize in a slower, controlling format
Edit: @Kai & Dennis: don't be so rough ;)
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I do, I never want to draw a Volcanic Island, let alone two Volcanic Islands, and would prefer to draw a Fetchland 99% of the time. I don't think you need a redundant Volcanic Island vs Wasteland because you shouldn't fetch Volcanic Island before you're ready to win anyway. Even if you do have a redundant Volcanic Island vs Wasteland, the chances are you don't have another fetchland to find it.
Saying that you can create a scenario where the second Volcanic Island is superior to another Fetchland vs Wasteland is ridiculous. I don't even have to create a scenario where a fetchland is superior to a Volcanic Island, because a fetchland is always superior to a dual land both in terms of its color consistency and cantrip efficiency regardless. Losing to Wasteland happens to every deck in the format, that doesn't mean we play with inferior mana bases to stop it from happening.
You have 4 Lotus Petal, 3 to 4 Chrome Mox and you're no longer playing any White spells, and suddenly you want to claim a 2nd Volcanic Island is an indisputable necessity that we've all been playing without since forever? I think adding the 5th fetchland is far more sensible than the 2nd Volcanic Island until somebody puts forward the burden of proof of why it's a necessity. At least with Underground Sea it's a land you don't mind seeing in your opening hand because it casts 7 more spells than Volcanic Island in the deck, all of which you'd want to cast before the combo turn. The 2nd Underground Sea is concession enough to Wasteland as it is.
I said, that overall I think that having a second volcanic now that we don't have to run CoB anymore has more advantages than the 5th fetch. There was no talk about necessity, but about scenarios like having double wish in hand and using one of them to fetch the SB discard spell without exposing your second wish and upcoming fetchlands to Wasteland etc. I'm convinced that the 5th fetchland can not make up for awkward moments where you can't fetch for a specific mana color. If I keep a hand which requires me to cantrip 1-2 times I prefer doing this by opening with Misty Rainforest/Flooded Strand -> Volcanic rather than fetching U.Sea and delivering a clear signal that I'm playing combo. You can mark this personal taste
I dislike the simple idea that Fetches are ALWAYS more important than targets (or running out of those) and for me this is a branch of the 2 Dual/6 fetches discussion
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I often enough want to play a Burning Wish before going of to find protection.
And sure in a perfect world you would fetch your one and only Volcanic the very turn you're going off - that's not allways possible. I rarely have the luxury of keeping my fetchlands around if I instead have to cantrip & cast discard in the same turn.
And while I agree its the worst possible land to draw it can even be a benefit to lead with Volcanic to lure their Wasteland, allthough thats certanly a corner case. Nevertheless, while as you said, most deck do lose to Wasteland I'm confidant that's no reason to not improve it if we have the chance to do so.
You guys must only think in theory and not ever practice. Drawing all of your fetchland targets with only three happened a lot more than you'd think, yet alone with those ridiculous German lists with two. I'm extremely happy with four and then siding into a fifth.
Germany is not the Netherlands ;)
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In a way, I sort of am looking for the basic generalities, as I'm admittedly a bit inexperienced with the deck, but I do have a few examples that came up recently:
Game 1, On the Play
This hand has loads of mana, a Ponder to dig for business, and a discard spell... but no initial land. This probably most exemplifies that sort of "I could keep and this could go off insanely" kind of thing that makes it hard to decide whether to keep or pass. What sticks in my mind is that I'd likely use the Chome or Petal, thus it feels like I'm playing at a mulligan, but I don't really want to mulligan, since I couldn't expect that density of mana and a discard spell, this feels better than the average 6, so I think I'd keep here.
Game 1, On the Play
This is another hand with a "missing piece", discard, and a hiccup in colors as the business spell doesn't match the land. On the turn you go off, the Petal can power the Ritual though, and that Brainstorm can probably find the discard spell. If I knew the deck wasn't Blue, I would keep for the fast combo potential, but using the same sort of "this seems better than the average 6" logic, I think I keep blind too.
Game 2, On the Draw against Miracles (I boarded out Warrens, Ponder, Tutor, Chrome Mox, for 2 Decay, 1 Pyroblast, 1 Tropical Island)
This hand seems way too clunky to keep. The Chrome Mox isn't looking too hot, the Infernal Tutors could be used to bait counters and assemble Rituals, but that seems poor off of either Chrome Mox or Gemstone Mine as the 2nd mana. I also have no interaction with what could be a looming Counterbalance. I ended up mulling here.
This hand is a bit risky with no initial land, but I do have 3 shots to draw one. Moreover, this hand is full of disruption which gives me a fighting chance to assemble a combo. I ended up keeping here, mostly due to the allure of the Cabal Therapies versus the risk of hitting a 10-outter for black sources in 3 draws.
Game 2, On the Play against Reanimator (I boarded out Warrens, Ponder, Tutor for 2 Xantid Swarm and 1 Tropical Island)
This hand is anemic in terms of mana, but it has business and land. What drove me to keep was the interesting little pincer of disruption: Gitaxian Probe lets me get a nice Cabal Therapy off, or Thoughtseize if a value play isn't there, or it lets me know if I can safely Ponder to dig for mana. The trade-off here is that I have none of my Swarms and likely no access to them in the foreseeable future, based on that line of play.
Game 2, On the Draw against Patriot Delver (I boarded out Ponder, Tutor for 2 Pyroblast)
I value sideboard cards pretty highly in this deck, since we bring in so few and they tend to be so high-impact, and here I am with the Pyroblast and sources to back it. The dangerous aspect here is the possibility of getting Brainstorm-locked when I'm looking for both mana and business. Being on the draw makes it a bit worse too, as they could drop a threat and then I'm stuck with a slow hand or possibly locked one negating whatever time or edge I could produce with Pyroblast. I think this hand just comes down to betting the game on Brainstorm, and idk if that's the way to play, I'm probably most curious about this hand. I ended up mulling though.
This hand is a bit land-heavier than I'd like it to be at a glance, but it also has some resiliency to Wasteland for that reason. The mana accel is a bit awkward, but it works due to Gemstone and Petal, it just seems like there's a bit too little of it. Overall, this hand just seemed to be missing too much. I mulled and kept 5, I didn't screen it since I don't really think you should mull below that as it becomes really difficult to play any sort of line at all at 4 or less cards.
Edit: if requested i can give more detailed reasonings (esp. hand 1)In a way, I sort of am looking for the basic generalities, as I'm admittedly a bit inexperienced with the deck, but I do have a few examples that came up recently:
Game 1, On the Play
This hand has loads of mana, a Ponder to dig for business, and a discard spell... but no initial land. This probably most exemplifies that sort of "I could keep and this could go off insanely" kind of thing that makes it hard to decide whether to keep or pass. What sticks in my mind is that I'd likely use the Chome or Petal, thus it feels like I'm playing at a mulligan, but I don't really want to mulligan, since I couldn't expect that density of mana and a discard spell, this feels better than the average 6, so I think I'd keep here.
You can call me crazy, but this looks like a classic example of a Belcher-hand rather than one you want to try riding by opening with Petal -> Ponder and see if you can sculpt something in the next 3 turns. Petal, Mox (imprint Therapy), DR, DR, LED, Ponder, break LED for RRR and look to hit a 10-outer. YOLO
Game 1, On the Play
This is another hand with a "missing piece", discard, and a hiccup in colors as the business spell doesn't match the land. On the turn you go off, the Petal can power the Ritual though, and that Brainstorm can probably find the discard spell. If I knew the deck wasn't Blue, I would keep for the fast combo potential, but using the same sort of "this seems better than the average 6" logic, I think I keep blind too.
Volcanic, go. BS for protection or to fire off EoT
Game 2, On the Draw against Miracles (I boarded out Warrens, Ponder, Tutor, Chrome Mox, for 2 Decay, 1 Pyroblast, 1 Tropical Island)
This hand seems way too clunky to keep. The Chrome Mox isn't looking too hot, the Infernal Tutors could be used to bait counters and assemble Rituals, but that seems poor off of either Chrome Mox or Gemstone Mine as the 2nd mana. I also have no interaction with what could be a looming Counterbalance. I ended up mulling here.
Mox (BW), Gemstone, Infernal for DR #2. Turn 2, Tropical, DR, DR, Infernal, AN ... all before Counterbalance or Clique
Edit: missed being on the draw. You can still gamble against CB or be more conservative, imprinting IT and Wish for Thoughtseize instead
This hand is a bit risky with no initial land, but I do have 3 shots to draw one. Moreover, this hand is full of disruption which gives me a fighting chance to assemble a combo. I ended up keeping here, mostly due to the allure of the Cabal Therapies versus the risk of hitting a 10-outter for black sources in 3 draws.
total junk. No IMS, no fastmana. Still better than mulling to 5
Game 2, On the Play against Reanimator (I boarded out Warrens, Ponder, Tutor for 2 Xantid Swarm and 1 Tropical Island)
This hand is anemic in terms of mana, but it has business and land. What drove me to keep was the interesting little pincer of disruption: Gitaxian Probe lets me get a nice Cabal Therapy off, or Thoughtseize if a value play isn't there, or it lets me know if I can safely Ponder to dig for mana. The trade-off here is that I have none of my Swarms and likely no access to them in the foreseeable future, based on that line of play.
there is a line to consider: Probe, Petal, Ponder, Fetchland -> U.Sea. You trade here the Petal for a shuffle effect. Against Reanimator on the play I would ponder first regardless
Game 2, On the Draw against Patriot Delver (I boarded out Ponder, Tutor for 2 Pyroblast)
I value sideboard cards pretty highly in this deck, since we bring in so few and they tend to be so high-impact, and here I am with the Pyroblast and sources to back it. The dangerous aspect here is the possibility of getting Brainstorm-locked when I'm looking for both mana and business. Being on the draw makes it a bit worse too, as they could drop a threat and then I'm stuck with a slow hand or possibly locked one negating whatever time or edge I could produce with Pyroblast. I think this hand just comes down to betting the game on Brainstorm, and idk if that's the way to play, I'm probably most curious about this hand. I ended up mulling though.
clear keeper with "Volcanic, go" once more. You have stable mana, sit on your cantrips and handle Delver, Meddling Mage, SFM and TNN. What more to ask for?
This hand is a bit land-heavier than I'd like it to be at a glance, but it also has some resiliency to Wasteland for that reason. The mana accel is a bit awkward, but it works due to Gemstone and Petal, it just seems like there's a bit too little of it. Overall, this hand just seemed to be missing too much. I mulled and kept 5, I didn't screen it since I don't really think you should mull below that as it becomes really difficult to play any sort of line at all at 4 or less cards.
also a keeper for a 6-card hand
Last edited by Lemnear; 04-06-2014 at 05:21 PM.
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I think hand 1 and the hands against Patriot Delver and Miracles I could use some input on. For hand 1, the Ponder line seemed like quite a gamble, especially blind. Against Delver, I thought the hand to be too slow, and for Miracles, I thought that hand would have time to develop. Since you seem to have the opposite sort of view, I would appreciate a more detailed examination.
Finished 6-3 in todays open, will post a report when I can.
@ Hand #1
First, I'm pretty sure here that this hand simply loses to a well-timed Daze, Pierce and FoW. By going all-in you can eliminate the first 2 cards.
If you start with Petal into Ponder you have a total of 5 outs to combo this turn. Each drawn EtW or Wish is a dead draw and not drawing a new IMS or IT is likely an immediate loss regardless. If you plan to go for a protected kill here, you need to find more mana AND an Infernal with a single Ponder. Odds are not that good in that case and that opens you up to the beforementioned cards and discard.
For me, sculpting a protected kill with that fragile mana and a Virtual mulligan thanks to Mox is a complicated task and likely puts you into a losing Position even if you get the Therapy going (still have to guess what to name, duh!), because setting up that blind-therapy would take at least a full turn. Calculating the odds here you have the most value gambling 60-40 against FoW (IF he plays blue) and/or 4 free shots to hit Infernal, AN and by breaking LED in response also each Wish and EtW.
You have a ~19% Chance to hit a life-card with each of the 4 cards Ponder gives you aka a ~75% Chance (Edit: Brainfart, its only ~57%) to hit your 10-outer (numbers from the top of my head). If your opponent does not know you are on storm nor plays blue those are fucking amazing odds. The only problem is that if that risky play (but imo best) gets you there, you'll be called a lucker no matter the odds ;)
@ Hand against Delver
Yes, this hand is slow as it is, but can immediately become nutty if you can hit some value with the 2 Brainstorms especially if you can get hands on a shuffle effect. You have stable mana to play around Daze from the starts and also have the disruption in your hand to negate all his threats for the turns you need to turn the Brainstorms into value.
This hand is a classic example of how to switch gameplans on the fly with Brainstorm. You have the control-hand here atm but with a single shuffle effect you can switch out the whole hand for a combo turn. This hand can easily go off protected by turn 3/4. I repeat: What more to ask for?
@ Miracles Hand
This one is tricky being on the draw (which I missed first) and being game 2 so you can expect either FoW and/or CB coming. Unfortunately I can not see a line which prevents you from both and mulling into a single discard Spell is pointless with him likely being able to stall the game into the next CB/Clique. You have 2 options here (with the stable mana being the Main reason not to mull this hand): first you can slowroll and hope to find a Pyroblast/Decay to get rid of a possible CB and go off after removing it and therefore use Wish to get Thoughtseize to handle at least FoW/Clique/other annoyance in his hand or you can try gambling against CB blindflips AND FoW with the play i suggested as I missed being on the draw and I thought about CB not being fast enough therefore.
Mind that in both cases CB is an issue; case a) requires more mana to topdeck and case b) requires to find protection, with the primer being more likely and therefore preferable. Essentially, mulling into a turn 1 discard does not solve the Problem you have here at all as even if you can snatch a Balance there is the next FoW/Pierce/Flusterstorm/Clique/CB available soon but you gave up a card and on top of that your stable mana your grip of 7 contains which can dig you out of a resolved T2 Counterbalance and is awesome if your opponent does not hold the 2cc enchantment but a mix of FoW and/or Clique
Last edited by Lemnear; 04-07-2014 at 06:48 AM.
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114% after 6 draws? Something like 58% (4 draws, no Ponder shuffle cause I'm lazy) sounds better than 75%. Still a keep?
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