All B/R update speculation.

[btm10]

I think it's pretty funny that people think Belcher will suddenly become 50% of the Meta if BS got banned

I don't think anyone said that. Lemnear, whose opinion on Storm and Storm-like combo I trust, suggested it would improve relative to other combo decks and likely experience slight improvement relative to the meta as a whole. I agreed, and went so far as to argue that the meta would experience a small net slowdown as a result of combo and tempo in general being weaker.

If by objectively diverse you mean, blue based midrange, tempo, control and combo all featuring 4x brainstorm than sure diverse format is diverse

HSCK's analysis suggests that the winner's meta for May had the top 12 decks representing only about 56% of Top 8 participants. That's incredibly diverse, especially when you consider that more than 12 decks make up the remaining 44%.

Or that Legacy-Brainstorm=Modern, a format where Deathrite Shaman, Stoneforge Mystic, Glimpse of Nature, Dark Depths, Chrome Mox, Sword of the Meek, and Jace the Mind Sculptor are banned. The two best decks in modern have infinite combos, the format is a total mess.

I think a Brainstorm ban would be interesting for Legacy. It would slow the fair blue decks down a tad against non-blue fair decks, while still allowing most decks that play the card to replace it with Ponder, Preordain, or some other effect and still have a blue count high enough to support FoW against really fast decks like S&T or Belcher. Because honestly, I think the play of digging for Force at instant speed matters way less than just having Force against turn 1 or 2 combos.

However, I think Show & Tell is the best ban candidate to try and de-blue the format, followed by True-Name Nemesis. While S&T isn't oppressive, its presence drives more people to play Force/Daze/Spell Pierce decks, which are Brainstorm decks. It also means that decks that don't play countermagic have to play really narrow cards in their sideboard like Ashen Rider or Oblivion Ring and then pray to draw them in games 2 and 3. Of course, S&T itself is a Force/Brainstorm deck.

TNN is just stupid...

The TNN issue has been beaten to death. Not only does a change appear to be unlikely, the meta has adapted to the card, as predicted, and it's fine. I also disagree that de-bluing the format is desirable in any way. I wouldn't weep for Show and Tell, but the cost in terms of precedent (banning a card merely for being obnoxious) is pretty high, and I'm not sure I'd be happy to see the DCI go that way.

I'd be willing to speculate that a post Brainstorm Legacy would see a rise in the quality (if not number) of creature based midrange-aggro decks like Maverick and Deadguy, accompanied by a concomitant fall in the quality of combo. The cards (even new-bordered ones) may be different, but the resultant meta would be one where the attack step mattered a lot more than it does now, and one where the stack matters a lot less. It's not a carbon copy of Modern, but it's closer to Modern than it is to Vintage.

[maharis]

The TNN issue has been beaten to death. Not only does a change appear to be unlikely, the meta has adapted to the card, as predicted, and it's fine. I also disagree that de-bluing the format is desirable in any way. I wouldn't weep for Show and Tell, but the cost in terms of precedent (banning a card merely for being obnoxious) is pretty high, and I'm not sure I'd be happy to see the DCI go that way.

I'd be willing to speculate that a post Brainstorm Legacy would see a rise in the quality (if not number) of creature based midrange-aggro decks like Maverick and Deadguy, accompanied by a concomitant fall in the quality of combo. The cards (even new-bordered ones) may be different, but the resultant meta would be one where the attack step mattered a lot more than it does now, and one where the stack matters a lot less. It's not a carbon copy of Modern, but it's closer to Modern than it is to Vintage.

I'm trying to find a way to not ban Brainstorm even though it seems so obvious. I picked S&T and TNN because they are the ultimate "oops I win" cards at the moment. They require a narrow set of hate cards to beat, and those cards generally have to be in hand at the time they're cast. I wasn't playing when Survival was going, so I read the posts in this thread around the time it was banned. It seems that Survival's main crime was being both obnoxious and successful. While S&T isn't a results machine, the decks that beat it are, and forcing other decks to play narrow answers in numbers like Ashen Rider freezes out new strategies. I believe without S&T's specter over the format, deck building can open up and new strategies can break through.

A resolved TNN isn't quite as jarring as S&T, but it is equally obnoxious. It forces creature decks to play sweepers or cards like Marsh Casualties and Zealous Persecution that may only be good against the TNN in a short window. It pitches to Force or clocks combo decks. Worse, it can stall a game long enough for the controller to draw out of a situation that they wouldn't have been able to even if it was a Clique or Invisible Stalker.

As for whether or not the attack step matter more now than before... I guess that depends on how you view the game. I see 5 DTBs that win exclusively through the combat step and two more that can incidentally win through Jace mill if they don't win through the combat step. Almost all decks historically have won in the combat step to some extent, even if it was prison decks just making you concede before they dropped whatever threat. If you are a storm player that always wins or loses via the stack, it may seem like that's not the case, but if you played a different deck you'd see it differently.

For what it's worth, I like playing against storm decks even though I don't play blue. I enjoy the tension of sequencing discard, hatebears, and a clock in the right manner to win. I don't want to see the archetype vanish, and while I don't know that a BS ban would do that I think there are other directions to go to increase the diversity of the format while preserving a Legacy classic card. At the same time, there are only 8 cards restricted in Vintage but legal in Legacy, and only one of those appears regularly in top 8s.

[pcalexander]

At the same time, there are only 8 cards restricted in Vintage but legal in Legacy, and only one of those appears regularly in top 8s.

That's not entirely true. Ponder is also a card that shows up regularly.

[PirateKing]

Brainstorm isn't the problem. Brainstorm is quintessentially blue, and that is a good thing. Blue is all about library and stack, so they get draw and counter. What they don't get is significant combat damage, evasion, or otherwise resiliency. In a proper world, blue's best one drop is Fugitive Wizard and Inkwell Leviathan tops the curve as best creature to be bought with Islands alone. Sure people will play blue, because every deck is made up of cards to be drawn, and every spell travels the stack to be countered. But in doing so you accept the strain on your manabase along with the reduction of threats. In fact, the choice of blue would be to help you win the game without ever winning the game itself. Players would choose between the UG Thresh decks of old, running 12 threats in Tarmogoyf, Werebear and Nimble Mongoose (note the color of win conditions), backed up with blue spells to find and protect and see the game through, and decks like Naya Zoo, who rather than 12 creatures and 10 ways to find them, would rather play 30 threats and just march forward into glorious battle, no blue to be found. The only decks with blue win conditions would be the one guy with Battle of Wits sitting with his tower of a deck.

That's how it was and as it should be. If made possible, it would be where I would see it return.

tl;dr Boo Delver

[maharis]

That's not entirely true. Ponder is also a card that shows up regularly.

That's right. I actually thought that to myself and then forgot when it came time to post.

Ponder and Brainstorm are very interesting in how they work together. Each has a strength the other lacks (Ponder is probably better with an empty hand, Brainstorm is better with a full hand). But I don't believe there are any decks that run 4 Ponder and <4 Brainstorm, so it's clear which is better more often.

I still don't know about banning Brainstorm. I think I'd rather ban cards that restrict future design space like S&T and TNN. Every time a S&T resolves I think, "We really can't have Survival?" Every time a TNN resolves, I think, "We really can't have Black Vise?" Those are equally obnoxious effects that could be used outside of blue that are held out of the format, yet the blue strategies are left alone. On top of that, the blue ones can only really be dealt with on the stack. Then people wonder why there are 60 out of 64 brainstorms in a top 16.

[JPoJohnson]

That's right. I actually thought that to myself and then forgot when it came time to post.

Ponder and Brainstorm are very interesting in how they work together. Each has a strength the other lacks (Ponder is probably better with an empty hand, Brainstorm is better with a full hand). But I don't believe there are any decks that run 4 Ponder and <4 Brainstorm, so it's clear which is better more often.

I still don't know about banning Brainstorm. I think I'd rather ban cards that restrict future design space like S&T and TNN. Every time a S&T resolves I think, "We really can't have Survival?" Every time a TNN resolves, I think, "We really can't have Black Vise?" Those are equally obnoxious effects that could be used outside of blue that are held out of the format, yet the blue strategies are left alone. On top of that, the blue ones can only really be dealt with on the stack. Then people wonder why there are 60 out of 64 brainstorms in a top 16.

Whenever I see rage about S&T, I wish that someone would brew with Stronghold Gambit a little bit. I realize they aren't even comparable, but it's still what pops into my head.

[menace13]

Whenever I see rage about S&T, I wish that someone would brew with Stronghold Gambit a little bit. I realize they aren't even comparable, but it's still what pops into my head.

Not sure i am following you. Gambit is unplayable against any deck that has creatures.

[JPoJohnson]

Not sure i am following you. Gambit is unplayable against any deck that has creatures.

Oh, it's definitely not an optimal card, just saying it's what always pops into my head. I've always wanted someone to work out a way to really abuse the card but with aggro being the go-to deckstyle in the format for most metas it sure makes it difficult to try and use that's for sure.

[HSCK]

So nothing this week? Last week the sky was falling because of a single SCG event not not a word this week with Elves takes 5 slots in the top 16?

[bakofried]

No, we're not saying anything this week. It's a really interesting top 16. Far from the norm, but I hope this is a trend, not just an anomaly.

[Megadeus]

It's an anomaly. 5 elves, multiple burn decks, and even old school standstill control (which looks fucking sweet btw), is certainly not a top 16 we see often

[HSCK]

Well Legacy as a whole is pretty varied, almost as if it's.....healthy. But that's only based on the forum's top 8 criteria.

[testing32]

No, we're not saying anything this week. It's a really interesting top 16. Far from the norm, but I hope this is a trend, not just an anomaly.

Exactly. I wish every week was like this.

And just looking at this top 16, yeah it's healthy. But, as stated earlier, this isn't the norm which isn't healthy

[Bed Decks Palyer]

So nothing this week? Last week the sky was falling because of a single SCG event not not a word this week with Elves takes 5 slots in the top 16?

This kind of posts would be far more informative if they'd contain a link to the Top16 mentioned.

[Darkenslight]

This kind of posts would be far more informative if they'd contain a link to the Top16 mentioned.

http://sales.starcitygames.com/deckd...16&event_ID=20

There we go.

[HSCK]

Exactly. I wish every week was like this.

And just looking at this top 16, yeah it's healthy. But, as stated earlier, this isn't the norm which isn't healthy

From looking at results the past 7.5 months I'm struggling to find a healthier time in Legacy's meta than this time period. I've been posting the collected data month by month and every month there is more fragmentation of top performances.


May Analysis

Six Month Update

April Analysis

March Analysis

February Analysis

[Bed Decks Palyer]

http://sales.starcitygames.com/deckd...16&event_ID=20

There we go.

Thanks!
Interesting Top16, indeed.

From looking at results the past 7.5 months I'm struggling to find a healthier time in Legacy's meta than this time period...

4 Submerge
3 Pyroblast
3 Tormod's Crypt
3 Krosan Grip
2 Pyroclasm

This was my sb some five years ago when I started playing Canadian Thresh. And except for an occassional Life from the Loam or Echoing Truth, those cards were all the sb material necessary.
Not today when there are many more cards (and far more versatile) needed.
Otoh, I wouldn't call nowadays metagame extremely diverse, as there are things (like blue's domination, DRS omnipresence or whatever) that are quite annoying.

[Dice_Box]

If you take a look at the meta overall and not just a 8 deck snapshot, the meta is not quite as fuild as some make it out to be. Really the only reason we are noticing how different this finish was is because the rest more or less all conform to the same standard and this one is unique.

How can you tell something is unique? You look at the overall snapshot and notice that Moat of the time, things are the same.

[ahg113]

So nothing this week? Last week the sky was falling because of a single SCG event not not a word this week with Elves takes 5 slots in the top 16?

I think people are getting a jump on the post brainstorm world. After that 15/16 showing, it's obviously going to get banned, and this is what will result. Lot's of elves as a strong combo deck that doesn't want brainstorm, a Belcher for haha's, and good ole cheap Burn, because the cool kids with money left the format.

Most likely, or most definitely.

[nedleeds]

People in Vegas clearly can't afford blue duals because of drug habits and gambling losses.