All B/R update speculation.

[Lemnear]

For sure 1 of U/R goes 5-0 piloted by Sam Back which has really a lot of luck, fightning vs storm (Game 3 - Storm player has kill in hand even over FoW on play - and... he didnt draw initial mana for over 3 turns).

"Sam Black" and "luck" in one sentence ... Hmmmmm....

[AznSeal]

If cards like brainstorm, FoW, or treasure cruise get banned, people will just play the next best thing. Every format will always have a "best" deck. If blue gets banned, every top 8 will be Elves or something and people will want to ban glimpse. When glimpse+NO gets banned, people will all play white and then people would scream for SFM to get banned.

[Dice_Box]

What's "The next best thing" to TC?

[Lejay]

Ancestral recall ? It doesn't shrink goyfs.

[Lord Seth]

If cards like brainstorm, FoW, or treasure cruise get banned, people will just play the next best thing. Every format will always have a "best" deck. If blue gets banned, every top 8 will be Elves or something and people will want to ban glimpse. When glimpse+NO gets banned, people will all play white and then people would scream for SFM to get banned.

But by this logic, shouldn't we be unbanning pretty much everything? I mean, all the deck/cardss that see play right now are the "next best thing" after the decks/cards that are banned. You can't use this logic to argue against bannings because by that logic you might as well unban everything.

I mean, why is Ancestral Recall banned according to this logic? People are just playing the next best thing, after all.

[AznSeal]

But by this logic, shouldn't we be unbanning pretty much everything? I mean, all the deck/cardss that see play right now are the "next best thing" after the decks/cards that are banned. You can't use this logic to argue against bannings because by that logic you might as well unban everything.

I mean, why is Ancestral Recall banned according to this logic? People are just playing the next best thing, after all.

That's an excellent point. But isn't that just the nature of bannings? Ban something if it's oppressive?

Personally, I feel like brainstorm is omnipresent but it isn't "oppressive". We shouldn't group decks into "brainstorm decks" and "nonbrainstorm decks" or even "blue decks" and "nonblue decks". We should look at decks as different decks. We shouldn't lump UR dever with UWr or miracles. Lumping brainstorm decks together is like lumping "Deathrite shaman decks" together where Elves is nothing like Jund.

Then again, I may not be having as big a problem with blue as other people here are. I mean, I don't play blue, but I have no problems with blue decks.

[Barook]

That's an excellent point. But isn't that just the nature of bannings? Ban something if it's oppressive?

Personally, I feel like brainstorm is omnipresent but it isn't "oppressive". We shouldn't group decks into "brainstorm decks" and "nonbrainstorm decks" or even "blue decks" and "nonblue decks". We should look at decks as different decks. We shouldn't lump UR dever with UWr or miracles. Lumping brainstorm decks together is like lumping "Deathrite shaman decks" together where Elves is nothing like Jund.

Then again, I may not be having as big a problem with blue as other people here are. I mean, I don't play blue, but I have no problems with blue decks.

The same argument can be made for Mental Misstep and we all know how that went - with good reason.

The reasons for banning Mental Misstep (making the format too blue + going into every deck) can be made for Brainstorm as well, except Brainstorm has now even surpassed the numbers that led to the ban of Mental Misstep (thanks to Treasure Cruise).

But even without TC, we weren't that far away from those numbers before. If they only ban TC, Brainstorm just goes back to be a time bomb ready to go off again when they print the next blue bullshit card. And Treasure Cruise being gone doesn't make Dig Through Time go away, which could easily be the next big thing.

[FoolofaTook]

If cards like brainstorm, FoW, or treasure cruise get banned, people will just play the next best thing. Every format will always have a "best" deck. If blue gets banned, every top 8 will be Elves or something and people will want to ban glimpse. When glimpse+NO gets banned, people will all play white and then people would scream for SFM to get banned.

The problem with the argument is that we've unfortunately reached a point in the Legacy meta where 3 parts of the blue shell: Brainstorm, Force of Will and Ponder, are better in combination than everything else in the meta. Lists that run those 3 parts of the shell consistently place better than lists that don't. That's created a stagnant meta in which people are just innovating around those 12 cards plus 48 others. Delver of Secrets is a problem because he's the best beater that the other 3 parts of the shell have and so many lists use him as their primary threat. Delver in turn empowers (re-empowers?) Daze because he's such a good early threat that protecting him at all costs is a priority.

The blue shell is not 20 cards as many claim. It's really 12 cards. It's the two fixing cantrips and Force of Will. Some lists use Delver and Daze. Some lists use Counterbalance and Sensei's Divining Top. A few lists, generally not quite as successful, use True-Name Nemesis and Jace, the Mind Sculptor as their primary threats.

What needs to get fixed is the cards that shoehorn the meta into the same blue shell. That's not Delver of Secrets, although he's fairly coercive on the overall meta. That's not True-Name Nemesis, although he's also a load for many lists to handle. It's not Jace, the Mind Sculptor, although he is somewhat overpowered in control.

The cards that cause the problem and create the blue meta are Brainstorm, Force of Will and Ponder. They're the cards that need to be looked at. They're also the 3 most played cards in the meta by a wide margin.

Treasure Cruise has added to the problems mainly because it plays with the 12 formative cards in the blue shell and makes them potentially 16. It also enables all the other blue shell mischief however it's not as pervasive or malignant to the overall meta as the big 3.

[AznSeal]

The problem with the argument is that we've unfortunately reached a point in the Legacy meta where 3 parts of the blue shell: Brainstorm, Force of Will and Ponder, are better in combination than everything else in the meta. Lists that run those 3 parts of the shell consistently place better than lists that don't. That's created a stagnant meta in which people are just innovating around those 12 cards plus 48 others. Delver of Secrets is a problem because he's the best beater that the other 3 parts of the shell have and so many lists use him as their primary threat. Delver in turn empowers (re-empowers?) Daze because he's such a good early threat that protecting him at all costs is a priority.

The blue shell is not 20 cards as many claim. It's really 12 cards. It's the two fixing cantrips and Force of Will. Some lists use Delver and Daze. Some lists use Counterbalance and Sensei's Divining Top. A few lists, generally not quite as successful, use True-Name Nemesis and Jace, the Mind Sculptor as their primary threats.

What needs to get fixed is the cards that shoehorn the meta into the same blue shell. That's not Delver of Secrets, although he's fairly coercive on the overall meta. That's not True-Name Nemesis, although he's also a load for many lists to handle. It's not Jace, the Mind Sculptor, although he is somewhat overpowered in control.

The cards that cause the problem and create the blue meta are Brainstorm, Force of Will and Ponder. They're the cards that need to be looked at. They're also the 3 most played cards in the meta by a wide margin.

Treasure Cruise has added to the problems mainly because it plays with the 12 formative cards in the blue shell and makes them potentially 16. It also enables all the other blue shell mischief however it's not as pervasive or malignant to the overall meta as the big 3.

But is it THAT much better than the meta or are more people just playing it? Genuine question. I agree that it's probably the best shell, but say you have a 1000 man tournament and 500 people play the blue shell and 500 people play elves, would the top 8 still be 6-8 blue decks? What if the field was half blue shell and half burn?

Random info: I play almost exclusively elves, so I may be biased with how good the blue shell card draw is.

[Megadeus]

Consistency is key, and brainstorm allows for the most consistency.

[FoolofaTook]

But is it THAT much better than the meta or are more people just playing it? Genuine question. I agree that it's probably the best shell, but say you have a 1000 man tournament and 500 people play the blue shell and 500 people play elves, would the top 8 still be 6-8 blue decks? What if the field was half blue shell and half burn?

Random info: I play almost exclusively elves, so I may be biased with how good the blue shell card draw is.

It's that much better in terms of consistency and predictability. I'm with you on Elves being an extraordinary list at this point. It has the consistency and predictability that 28+ creatures, 8 tutor effects and 8 draw effects creates. However, it's one of the few lists that can compete with the blue shell in that regards.

For predictability and reliability the meta essentially is:

The blue shell
Elves
Burn

Everything else.

Now in the everything else you have highly predictable lists like Dredge that are also easy to hate. You have fairly predictable lists like Death and Taxes that also have major liabilities in the meta that they can't match up against. That's pretty much it though. And really you ought to be playing one of the top 2 archetypes above if you can afford it and the third if you can't.

The blue shell is dominant though. It's consistency squats all over lists that could handle Elves and Burn and create a much wider meta.

[AznSeal]

It's that much better in terms of consistency and predictability. I'm with you on Elves being an extraordinary list at this point. It has the consistency and predictability that 28+ creatures, 8 tutor effects and 8 draw effects creates. However, it's one of the few lists that can compete with the blue shell in that regards.

For predictability and reliability the meta essentially is:

The blue shell
Elves
Burn

Everything else.

Now in the everything else you have highly predictable lists like Dredge that are also easy to hate. You have fairly predictable lists like Death and Taxes that also have major liabilities in the meta that they can't match up against. That's pretty much it though. And really you ought to be playing one of the top 2 archetypes above if you can afford it and the third if you can't.

The blue shell is dominant though. It's consistency squats all over lists that could handle Elves and Burn and create a much wider meta.

I think the thing is blue decks are better at beating random tier 1.5 and tier 2 decks than Elves is, so it seems more dominant even if the elves MU is 50-50?

[Megadeus]

Honesty, elves can randomly herp derp hoof at a consistent enough rate that they probably beat the random garbage more often than even the blue decks.

[FoolofaTook]

I think the thing is blue decks are better at beating random tier 1.5 and tier 2 decks than Elves is, so it seems more dominant even if the elves MU is 50-50?

Yes, the blue shell is better at beating combo and Pox and MUD and Enchantress and the like than Elves is. Elves would be much less of a sure thing in a meta in which the blue shell wasn't covering for it with all the unfair lists that might get the drop on it and knock it off.

Further, the blue shell discourages non-blue lists that aren't highly consistent, to the point of extreme predictability, so even lists that have generally decent matchups against the blue shell and Elves are still handicapped by the fact that both of those archetypes are more consistent and thus more playable in a long competition.

You weaken the blue shell some. You let the unfair lists weaken Elves some. Everybody else suddenly becomes a bit more playable because there are no extremely consistent lists out there that are just clearly a better play in a long competition.

Does this make Magic a bit more random? Sure, but Magic is already random. One blue list in a match will get a better draw than another blue list and the match will go over for that reason. It happens all the time. Trying to make Magic into Chess just doesn't work. It makes the Magic environment boring and stifling, no pun intended, and removes a lot of majesty from the competition in the process. The competition should be about sweeping ideas and arguments over the value of cards and plays. It should not be about "perfectly played Brainstorm".

How hard is it to know how to play one card well?

[FoolofaTook]

Honesty, elves can randomly herp derp hoof at a consistent enough rate that they probably beat the random garbage more often than even the blue decks.

Well, if the blue penetration is lower and the storm combo penetration is higher what does that do to Elves? Similarly, if hatebears variants are more common because the blue shell is not significantly more consistent than them what does that do to Elves? Finally, if slower control that is not Miracles based becomes more playable because the faster blue lists don't just run all over it what does that do to Elves?

We can't see the real effects that the blue shell has on the Legacy meta, other than raw numbers in top 8's, because we can't account for the lists not playable in that meta that are only not playable because the blue shell is so much more consistent than them. We can't see what happens to the few non-blue consistent lists, like Elves, Burn and Death and Taxes when they are suddenly joined by more powerful lists that have been freed from the tyranny of the blue shell.

[Lord Seth]

That's an excellent point. But isn't that just the nature of bannings? Ban something if it's oppressive?

Yes, but rejecting a banning suggestion because "they'll just play the next best thing" doesn't work for the reasons I suggested.

In fact, there's something else I didn't mention. And that's the fact that the next best thing, whatever it is, is worse. If it wasn't worse, people would be playing it already. Thus, a ban still achieves the goal of weakening the problematic strategy or deck.

Personally, I feel like brainstorm is omnipresent but it isn't "oppressive". We shouldn't group decks into "brainstorm decks" and "nonbrainstorm decks" or even "blue decks" and "nonblue decks". We should look at decks as different decks. We shouldn't lump UR dever with UWr or miracles. Lumping brainstorm decks together is like lumping "Deathrite shaman decks" together where Elves is nothing like Jund.

I would say that an omnipresent card is inherently oppressive.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

That's an excellent point. But isn't that just the nature of bannings? Ban something if it's oppressive?

Personally, I feel like brainstorm is omnipresent but it isn't "oppressive". We shouldn't group decks into "brainstorm decks" and "nonbrainstorm decks" or even "blue decks" and "nonblue decks". We should look at decks as different decks. We shouldn't lump UR dever with UWr or miracles. Lumping brainstorm decks together is like lumping "Deathrite shaman decks" together where Elves is nothing like Jund.

Then again, I may not be having as big a problem with blue as other people here are. I mean, I don't play blue, but I have no problems with blue decks.

It's a bit like saying "we shouldn't group decks into Ancestral Recall decks" which clearly isn't any reason or in any way helpful to understand why 'tral is or isn't banned.

Brainstorm might be oppressive in that it eliminate things like mulligans or accumulation of uselesss cards over the turns, and that's something that no other card can, at least not for the mere price of tapping one island. This way it pushes out of the game those decks/colors/tactics that do not have these tools for not only momentary CQ, but also one that dips in the past: one that undoes wrong keep decision, one that trades chaff for gas, one that allows powerful gameplan switches.
Which of course isn't that bad, if you
- play only the casual Magic, drafts or Standard
- do like the recent inbred metagame
- or fear that your "Killah Dek" won't be having free games against rest of the field anymore.
Humane reasons, but why should I play by this rules if it's funny like prying shit out of tread...

It's that much better in terms of consistency and predictability...

For predictability and reliability the meta essentially is:

The blue shell
Elves
Burn

Everything else.

The blue shell is dominant though. It's consistency squats all over lists that could handle Elves and Burn and create a much wider meta.

I think it won't take much time until people really realize how powerful choice Elves are. Seriously, seeing how it has access to unrestricted Ancestral Recall, Tinker and Tolarian Academy makes me sad that I haven't bought the cards when they were cheap.

Honesty, elves can randomly herp derp hoof at a consistent enough rate that they probably beat the random garbage more often than even the blue decks.

Definitely. Maybe it's because I play RUG exclusively, a deck that is far from being the best choice right now, but even considering all other choices, I still think that Elves are pretty much better in dealing with mid-low Tier decks than say Thresh or any other non-Miracles, tempo deck.
While it might be fun to trying defeat a Fat Kid's Deck, Elves don't exactly care (unless it's a deck that packs unusual amount of removal) and surely don't have to deal with things like protecting Delver, clearing the path for Goyf to connect, FoWing a random Craw Wurm or having lots of dead draws (Stifle, Daze, Waste... basically the whole tempo shell). Elves simply run over the poor guy...
Enter the underdeveloped metagame anecdotes here.

[apple713]

how was reverberate printed with fork being on the reserve list? Simply by removing the fact that the copy is red?

[Darkenslight]

Well, if the coverage of the GP is representative of the deck being played, then the following cards should be emergency-banned in Legacy:

Brainstorm
Delver of Secrets
Young Pyromancer

/Poe

[Dice_Box]

how was reverberate printed with fork being on the reserve list? Simply by removing the fact that the copy is red?

Yes, and from memory it caused a issue and was on of the incidents that lead to the doubling down on the list when they closed the loophole on foil cards.