All B/R update speculation.

[LOLWut]

Statistically insignificant differences, to my knowledge, are only applicable when extrapolating numbers from a smaller representative sample, e.g. polls. We have data here that isn't really extrapolation, so "statistically insignificant" seems an irrelevant claim to make.

Statistical significance is achieved when one is sure that the statistic is reliable. A compendium of statistics that includes Standard/Legacy Invitational finishes, groups Delver-less UWR Stoneforge decks with Patriot Delver, and doesn't include the majority of Legacy tournaments being played should not give one confidence that the statistic/difference is reliable and that the finding is statistically significant. It's still a form of extrapolation.

Further, if the wording were modified, and we accepted the numbers as accurate (and correlative to power), to something like "94.4% (well, 5.6%) is a marginal difference", would you be on board? Is Brainstorm's number reason enough to get it banned, while a number 94.4% of it isn't reason enough to get it banned? The person who originally used omnipresence as a reason for banning seems to have a low threshold, as he/she wants even Ponder banned.

That's true. However, Brainstorm is still the bigger offender in terms of omnipresence and is less important in regards to stopping the format from being overrun by Goblin Charbelcher-esque decks.

The claim seems to be that Brainstorm and Force have similar numbers, but Force is excused for the good things it does. But what about the good things Brainstorm does, like being an integral part of a wide swath of decks, encompassing almost every strategy imaginable? And what about the bad things Force does, like necessitating a deeper commitment to blue cards and similar shells, and providing a hedge against certain types of decks that other colors don't have? All of this must be taken into account.

Not a heck of a lot of decks splashing blue for just Brainstorm.

[Tao]

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

[Julian23]

Ok guys, this is serious. The US has already proven that they will accept nuclear missiles in the hands of North Korea. But news just got in and Kim Jong Un might have eventually crossed the line with the latest arrival to his WMD arsenal.

Wake up, America!

[death]

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

[Barook]

Ok guys, this is serious. The US has already proven that they will accept nuclear missiles in the hands of North Korea. But news just got in and Kim Jong Un might have eventually crossed the line with the latest arrival to his WMD arsenal.

So that's why cinemas banned the "The Interview"...

[btm10]

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

I don't think this is true. While SB BEBs are slightly more distressing than the MD Red blasts themselves, they're ultimately no different than SB/MD Sylvan Safekeeper to protect creatures from removal. If everyone is playing URx, why not run cheap, versatile answers to URx? As others have pointed out, it's no different than people running StP or Bolt because the meta is full of creature decks.

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

Without getting into format specific reasons, what no one has done so far is make a compelling argument about why we should be nerfing the format's best consistency engines. Playing with blue mana sources is a pretty small price to pay to be able to play combo, aggro, control, midrange, tempo, or some combination thereof and have the decks actually work reliably. I really can't get my head around the argument that if nonblue decks can't have the best consistency tools, then no deck should have the best consistency tools.

As to those saying that some "lack of diversity" in the meta is causing a fall-off in format adoption, I'm pretty skeptical. While this might be true at the local level, the regular Legacy group at my LGS has definitely grown in the last few months, so there's at least one data point in the other direction. In addition, there was a massive collapse in the number of Vintage players in the wake of Brainstorm being banned, and several prominent Vintage players (Rich Shay probably being the most notable among them) have argued for its unbanning. While there were a few confounding factors like the end of SCG Power 9 tournaments, the initial falloff was well after that and much closer to the Brainstorm ban, and I was part of that initial wave. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a Brainstorm (or Ponder) ban had a similarly large negative impact on Legacy event attendance. It would be especially scary to have a ban come in the Fate Reforged B/R update because answering the attendance question would become considerably more difficult due to a lack of a baseline from the new SCG Open structure.

[LOLWut]

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

I'm enthusiastically co-signing "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card." and adding "No-one with a brain believes that Ponder is a problem card."

[Meekrab]

I don't accept this argument that the format is in decline as the prices of staples rocket to new highs every week.

You can't claim people are driven away from the format as it stands when a playset of Wastelands and FoWs costs i.e. more than the average American makes in a week. Note: I did not fact check this but it feels roughly right. I'm far enough away from the "average American" that I don't actually know how much she makes.

[Lord Seth]

I don't accept this argument that the format is in decline as the prices of staples rocket to new highs every week.

You can't claim people are driven away from the format as it stands when a playset of Wastelands and FoWs costs i.e. more than the average American makes in a week. Note: I did not fact check this but it feels roughly right. I'm far enough away from the "average American" that I don't actually know how much she makes.

Force of Will is $80 Low on TCG Player and Wasteland is $58. A playset of each will run you $552. $552 per week equals $28,704 per year (552*52).

According to the Census Bureau, the average income per year is $28,155. It's not clear if that's median, mean, or mode, but it's the average by some metric. Now, that is stated to be in 2013 dollars. Adjusted for inflation using CPI Inflation Calculator, that's currently $28,541.02.

So, a playset of Wastelands and Force of Wills does seem to be more than the average American makes in a week, although not by too much.

[Adryan]

Always the same. A lot of guys with flawed arguments waiting for Brainstorm to get banned. Treasure Cruise ban is realistic, but everyone who hopes that Brainstorm will get the axe.... don't be too sad when your dreams of playing more stupid Jund/Junk/ Marit Lage decks or whatever are getting crushed.

[Zombie]

I'm enthusiastically co-signing "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card." and adding "No-one with a brain believes that Ponder is a problem card."

It could easily be a problem card. But IMO Elves, Library/GSZ in goodstuff, Bob, Top etc. are much closer to Ponder's power level than Brainstorm's. They're still not quite as smooth but the difference in raw power is small or nonexistent.

Always the same. A lot of guys with flawed arguments waiting for Brainstorm to get banned. Treasure Cruise ban is realistic, but everyone who hopes that Brainstorm will get the axe.... don't be too sad when your dreams of playing more stupid Jund/Junk/ Marit Lage decks or whatever are getting crushed.

Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

[Megadeus]

It could easily be a problem card. But IMO Elves, Library/GSZ in goodstuff, Bob, Top etc. are much closer to Ponder's power level than Brainstorm's. They're still not quite as smooth but the difference in raw power is small or nonexistent.



Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

Brainstorm being so skill intensive sets blue mages apart from us obviously less skilled pet deck playing apes.
#BrainstormIsObviouslyTooHardForMe

[Zombie]

Brainstorm being so skill intensive sets blue mages apart from us obviously less skilled pet deck playing apes.
#BrainstormIsObviouslyTooHardForMe

Ask nedleeds and I am an unskilled ape because I play hoof o_o
(...having 14 win conditions IS dumb)
:P

[Lemnear]

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

What did I say about not-reading-the-last-pages? Here it is:

Wow, we're still not over the MB Red Elemental Blast thing from what I have read the last pages? Is it sooooo hard to compregend that REBs in tempo lists like UR Delver is NOT FOR BATTLING OPPOSING BRAINSTORMS but the ONLY viable out against TNN/Counterbalance in that colors in addition to FoW? Everyone who ever played a tempo related deck can verify that TNN/Counterbalance is about the worst that can happen.

I'm baffled that people still think the numbers of Brainstorm + REBs or those of Brainstorm + FoW are somehow connected. They are not gentlemen. You play REBs against blue threats other cards in that color can't economically handle, while FoW + Ponder + Preordain + Probe (+ SDT) still prevent you from dying against T1 Combo decks


Edit: also a big applause for not reading the last 10 or so pages of an active discussion, but jumping in by repeating the same old "arguments" we read dozens of times before from other people who did not bother to follow the threat either. There are the same arguments and counter-arguments coming up every 4 pages, because no one bothers to read the fucking arguments before they make their posts.

[H]

The problem with banning Treasure Cruise is that there will eventually be another good Blue card printed, because Wizards isn't going to have Blue suck in Standard for the next 10 years. Every time they print a good, playable Blue card, we'll have to ban it? How stale will to format become?

[Lemnear]

The problem with banning Treasure Cruise is that there will eventually be another good Blue card printed, because Wizards isn't going to have Blue suck in Standard for the next 10 years. Every time they print a good, playable Blue card, we'll have to ban it? How stale will to format become?

Suprisingly this is the argument why Survival was banned instead of Vengevine and is not coming back. :)


Edit: in the end, you cannot reverse 10+ of printings and the supremacy of blue cantrips for reasons of consistancy is unmatched since fetchlands saw print. We know what happend the last time WotC tried to undo the blue shell and vindicated a format, its appeal and playerbase

[Quasim0ff]

Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

Which is very funny, considering a strategy revolving around flippings spells and attacking for 3 in the air, while eating opponents brainstorms/swords/spells draining for 2 was the dominant USea strategy for the longest time - and arguably still is.

[H]

Suprisingly this is the argument why Survival was banned instead of Vengevine and is not coming back. :)

Oh, I know. The irony is not lost on me. Let's be real though, it makes sense. Are they really not going to make any good new Blue cards? What will be their effect on a format where Blue is already as established as the "best shell" by a considerable margin?

Edit: in the end, you cannot reverse 10+ of printings and the supremacy of blue cantrips for reasons of consistancy is unmatched since fetchlands saw print. We know what happend the last time WotC tried to undo the blue shell and vindicated a format, its appeal and playerbase

As much as we hear about the whole "Vintage exodus," I am becoming less sure it wasn't actually a possibly good thing honestly. Mind you, I played Vintage for years before I even played any Legacy.

[Tao]

As to those saying that some "lack of diversity" in the meta is causing a fall-off in format adoption, I'm pretty skeptical. While this might be true at the local level, the regular Legacy group at my LGS has definitely grown in the last few months, so there's at least one data point in the other direction. In addition, there was a massive collapse in the number of Vintage players in the wake of Brainstorm being banned, and several prominent Vintage players (Rich Shay probably being the most notable among them) have argued for its unbanning. While there were a few confounding factors like the end of SCG Power 9 tournaments, the initial falloff was well after that and much closer to the Brainstorm ban, and I was part of that initial wave. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a Brainstorm (or Ponder) ban had a similarly large negative impact on Legacy event attendance. It would be especially scary to have a ban come in the Fate Reforged B/R update because answering the attendance question would become considerably more difficult due to a lack of a baseline from the new SCG Open structure.

Well yes, I have always agreed with the argument to protect iconic cards from Wizard's standpoint (if you want to search 100-300 pages back you will probably find me saying this, I also think IBA made a thread about this in this sub-forum). If it makes them money they will obviously keep it and I won't blame them. For me there are different card games if they do this but I do understand their choice if this is their reasoning. It makes sense and I can live with it. I disagree with the reasoning but at least it makes sense.

But in threads like this you will always find people trying to find stupid arguments how BS is not banworthy for its power level and that annoys me a lot. Like what, do you really think that MD Red Blasts are not different from MD Swords? Did Lemnear really manage to convince himself that there is no connection between MD REBs and decks including Brainstorm being heavily played?

[Megadeus]

People have in fact convinced themselves that main board red blast is as logical as main deck swords to plowshares. "It's just an answer!". Yeah. Except one answers 80% of legacy creatures while the other... Well at this point I guess answers 80% of decks spells since blue is so omnipresent