All B/R update speculation.

[Dice_Box]

If my math is right, the cut off for December is 74.428. This means 4 decks with Sneak Attack just sneaking in. Got to admit, that's not pretty since the other 3 decks are U/R, Miracles and Patriot. This is not healthy.

[btm10]

Am I the only one that "Feels" something is going to change? I had this same feeling last year about Modern, I have it now about Legacy. I do not normally clock watch the announcements but I just feel like something really might happen this time. Makes me uneasy.

Edit:
Death, you do not execute innocent parties to spare guilty ones. If Brainstorm if found to be at fault, it's Brainstorm that has to go, not Ponder as a proxy.

My money is on TC being banned. Survival is possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

When is the B&R announcement? January 19th?

I'm not sure. I think the format is ripe for an unbanning if nothing else. I'd think that Cruise should be banned, but that's no guarantee that it will be banned.

I would love to see some unbannings. Question is, the stuff that could be unbanned, is it good enough to shake the format up? Maybe not.

-Matt

I think Survival would be safe and could potentially invigorate Maverick and maybe some kind of Vengevival strategy as well. I also think Earthcraft has a lot of potential in Enchantress, which despite not being widely played is pretty well positioned.

It's possible that TC gets banned but then that just brings back RUG Tempo as the DTB, with Miracles, BUG Delver, Stoneblade and Elves on it's heels. That's the meta from August and it's still close to a 70% Brainstorm meta.

I think WotC thought that TC was going to go into every blue shell list and it would be an easy ban this time around. Instead it has slotted into every Delver list and is not so easy to define.

I guess I'd put the odds like this right now:

Brainstorm - 80%
Delver of Secrets - 50%
Treasure Cruise - 50%
Ponder - 20%
Force of Will - ?

50% on the Survival unbanning and 50% on Vengevine being banned if Survival comes off the list.

This is all nonsense. Prior to Khans, the meta was basically Team America/BUG Delver vs. Miracles at the top, with RUG/Elves/D&T/Sneak and Show/Jund/Deathblade/ANT making up the rest of the top tier in almost-equal numbers. HSCK ran the numbers on this for several months and basically found as much.

WotC has made it pretty clear that they aren't going to ban Brainstorm, so the 80% number is clearly wrong. I'd say a Cruise ban is a tossup, with some sort of unbanning being somewhat less likely than a Cruise ban or no changes. The odds on a Vengevine ban, even coupled with a Survival unban, are 0.

[nedleeds]

WotC has made it pretty clear that they aren't going to ban Brainstorm

link?

[testing32]

link?

The last 2 years of B&R announcements? I've given up hope at this point.

[btm10]

link?

Edit: Testing32 beat me to it. Also, they tend to go for minimally invasive routes to forcing meta changes; if something changed since the last update, it's Treasure Cruise, so that's what's going to go.

[clavio]

The last 2 years of B&R announcements? I've given up hope at this point.

Yes. If Brainstorm hasn't gotten banned yet there is no way it will get banned in the future without Wizards radically changing the way they maintain the Legacy banned list.

What about Delver? Would it be too crazy to ban that guy?

[hobart]

The members of my play group have all different philosophies when it comes to Magic. We have different playstyles and different pet decks. We disagree on some banning and unbanning preferences, but we all agree: Ban Treasure Cruise! Games of magic are pretty much all coming down to who resolves one first or who resolves it more often. It makes all 1 for 1's in the game better for the player that has more cruises in their hand or their next draws, and it's not even close. Legacy is my favorite format, and I will continue to play it regardless, and I love powerful cards, but this shit is getting ridiculous. To all the brainstorm bitchers out there: I've never been brainstormed right out of the fucking game. I don't give a shit how many times you brainstorm against me. Can you deal with my threats? Can you kill me? If you can't, all you've done is spend your mana cantripping while I play business. When I play brainstorm it is a delicate ballet of decision making and patience, since I'm probably playing some sort of tempo deck that can't afford to rely on raw card advantage, or control where I must answer the correct threats since I will have limited resources until I can stabilize. With Treasure Cruise this is not the case, now all the cantrips become brainless digfests for Treasure cruise that you must spam as fast as possible, the decisions you make don't really matter, since you then just jam cruise and draw all the cards. No one ever decided to maindeck a Pyroblast because they are scared of Brainstorm, the Miracles players started doing it because they were scared of TNN (a dumb card for sure), and everyone else started maindecking it because they are scared of Treasure Cruse (even dumber). Even though WOTC are dumb they are smart enough to realize that Treasure Cruise was a big mistake for Eternal formats and I believe it will be banned in Modern, banned in Legacy, and restricted in Vintage. Who wants to give me some odds for a bet?

[death]

What about Delver? Would it be too crazy to ban that guy?

Getting rid of the insect just means 1 less win condition that is blue, leaving the blue cantrip cartel intact would keep the format stagnant.

Take away Ponder, you lessen Delver's odds of flipping, you weaken the blue core.

Ponder is a strong card. Compared to Brainstorm, I see Ponder doing more harm than good.

1000th post.

A Ponder ban makes no sense in a vacuum. It is the most easily replaceable spell in the blue shell and Preordain would just take it's place in the shell.

If Preordain takes its place then Preordain takes its place.

Should TC get banned, DTT will also have to go because it will just replace TC otherwise in most decks.

If DTT replaces TC in most decks then DTT replaces TC in most decks.

[rancOr_]

Should TC get banned, DTT will also have to go because it will just replace TC otherwise in most decks. Don't think anything will get banned(yet), one or more unbannings would be a nice surprise.

[btm10]

Should TC get banned, DTT will also have to go because it will just replace TC otherwise in most decks. Don't think anything will get banned(yet), one or more unbannings would be a nice surprise.

I don't think Dig would be nearly as egregious as Cruise. Aside from being less raw card advantage, the sort of decks that can afford to leave UU up or to mainphase UU aren't the same as the ones that really abuse Cruise. UWx Blade would probably run a Cruise or two, as would BUG decks, and perhaps some control and combo decks would go to the full four. But (non-BUG) Delver decks probably wouldn't run it at all, and while UR Delver would still be a contender thanks to Monastery Swiftspear and raw speed, it wouldn't be oppressive because it either can't support Dig as well as Cruise on only 5-7 actual lands. If it runs more lands to Dig as well as it Cruises, that's also fine because the second U significantly impedes its ability to simultaneously reload and engage in Pyromancer/Swiftspear shenanigans.

Getting rid of the insect just means 1 less win condition that is blue, leaving the blue cantrip cartel intact would keep the format stagnant.

Take away Ponder, you lessen Delver's odds of flipping, you weaken the blue core.

...

If Preordain takes its place then Preordain takes its place.

I think you're overestimating both the gap between Ponder and Preordain and the relative consistency of the rest of the field - decks without cantrips will have an almost imperceptibly smaller barrier to overcome than they currently do, and again little will change. I'd rather see Brainstorm banned than Ponder because it would at least lead to a change in the format by severely damaging Storm and Show and Tell and killing Miracles. I don't think that those losses are acceptable for whatever dubious benefit we might get from the ban, but it's better than banning a card and having nothing change at all.

[Lemnear]

It's amazing to read how people want either Ponder, TC, Brainstorm or Delver banned, but don't care much or are completely unsure, which card is unhealthy, as long as something blue is banned.

Pure rage-banning?

[FoolofaTook]

It's amazing to read how people want either Ponder, TC, Brainstorm or Delver banned, but don't care much or are completely unsure, which card is unhealthy, as long as something blue is banned.

Pure rage-banning?

Banning for the purpose of creating a meta that is not 70% blue shell.

What's your excuse for wanting the meta to stay as it is?

[eays]

Banning for the purpose of creating a meta that is not 70% blue shell.

What's your excuse for wanting the meta to stay as it is?

he's a storm player...storm benefits from a tc meta and likes really good cantrips. It's understandable that he would be perfectly happy with the status quo lol. That's not a jab at lemnear...we all have a predisposition...but it is reality when discussing these things.

Hoping for a tc ban...I don't mind brainstorm but tc raw power is oppressive.

[btm10]

It's amazing to read how people want either Ponder, TC, Brainstorm or Delver banned, but don't care much or are completely unsure, which card is unhealthy, as long as something blue is banned.

Pure rage-banning?

I actually think that Cruise is unhealthy on its own merits, mostly in UR Delver. The deck is brutally fast (in my testing I was getting turn 3 kills ~5% of the time) and doesn't have the traditional aggro deck drawback of not being able to survive having its initial batch of threats answered. It's not "quitting the format" bad in that regard, but it's also had a massive homogenizing influence on decks. Is part of that bandwagoning without a lot of support? Yes. But I don't see people moving off of the 4 Ancestral Recalls because the EV is so good, even once with the drawbacks of the UR and UWr decks that Cruise the best are clearer.

[clavio]

It's amazing to read how people want either Ponder, TC, Brainstorm or Delver banned, but don't care much or are completely unsure, which card is unhealthy, as long as something blue is banned.

Pure rage-banning?

Brainstorm is easily the strongest card in Legacy, but Wizards is unwilling to ban it. People are just throwing out ideas of other cards that could get banned instead to reduce the dominance of the "blue decks".

[Lemnear]

Banning for the purpose of creating a meta that is not 70% blue shell.

What's your excuse for wanting the meta to stay as it is?

Because the decision-finding of what's the smartest solution for the "Problem" boils down to:



Sorry, but that's not my niveau

[death]

Banning for the purpose of creating a meta that is not 70% blue shell.

What's your excuse for wanting the meta to stay as it is?

Because he doesn't want DCI to foil his plans of wreaking havoc to the format with maindecked Trygon Predatorz in his TES.

[FoolofaTook]

I actually think that Cruise is unhealthy on its own merits, mostly in UR Delver. The deck is brutally fast (in my testing I was getting turn 3 kills ~5% of the time) and doesn't have the traditional aggro deck drawback of not being able to survive having its initial batch of threats answered. It's not "quitting the format" bad in that regard, but it's also had a massive homogenizing influence on decks. Is part of that bandwagoning without a lot of support? Yes. But I don't see people moving off of the 4 Ancestral Recalls because the EV is so good, even once with the drawbacks of the UR and UWr decks that Cruise the best are clearer.

UR Delver is over-rated. It's a strong, consistent list but RUG Tempo was better. I'd rather face UR Delver in a meta with Treasure Cruise than RUG Tempo in a meta without it and that's not a hard call at all.

The reason that UR Delver is played more than RUG Tempo was is that it's a MUCH cheaper list to play. No Tropical Islands, no Goyfs, it's about $1000 less to play the list.

[Lemnear]

he's a storm player...storm benefits from a tc meta and likes really good cantrips. It's understandable that he would be perfectly happy with the status quo lol. That's not a jab at lemnear...we all have a predisposition...but it is reality when discussing these things.

Hoping for a tc ban...I don't mind brainstorm but tc raw power is oppressive.

That argument of being one dimensional gets a bit old:





Edit:

Because he doesn't want DCI to foil his plans of wreaking havoc to the format with maindecked Trygon Predatorz in his TES.

That was awesome. Just saying: With less REBs in the format the tech gets even better

[wonderPreaux]

Banning for the purpose of creating a meta that is not 70% blue shell.

What's your excuse for wanting the meta to stay as it is?

Why does the meta have to change by removing the card that is just fundamentally doing what the color blue is supposed to do? There are cards that are efficient beaters (Delver), efficient evasive threats (TNN, and sorta Delver), cards that exploit the graveyard for advantage (Cruise/DTT), cards that cheat out permanents (SnT), all things blue has no business doing, and you would instead ban the cards that just decent cantripping?

Since people have become a fan of crime-related metaphors in this thread lately, that's the logical equivalent of rounding up a murderer, arsonist, jaywalker, and drug dealer, clearing them of all charges, and then banning pants because they were all wearing them at the time of their respective crimes. If blue didn't have great tools to WELL AND TRULY FULFILL THE ROLE OF ANY SORT OF DECK, as opposed to just kinda sorting around for good stuff, the blue shell wouldn't be as powerful.

For example without Delver, tempo has to make careful choices and can't be as blue. Your efficient threats are either low-to-the-ground red dudes, or graveyard-dependent green/black dudes in a lot of cases, so you often have to dip further into other colors not just to play those threats but often to play supporting removal like Bolt for large dudes blocking your swiftspear or decay for the RiP that neutralizes your 'goyf. Now that that reliance on other colors is stressed more and the easy blue answer is gone, you have to suffer that opportunity cost with less blue for manabase and deckspace reasons.

Brainstorm, for all the hate and ire it seems to draw, is just a card sorter. It doesn't guarantee your best cards as some like to imagine, and no amount of cantripping on it's own will win you the game. If blue stopped getting pushed over the edge with great cards it shouldn't have in it's color, then it won't be as represented.