All B/R update speculation.

[Finn]

The percentages he posted aren't worth the electrons they are printed on. Tao posted a link with matchup data revealing that both Elves and DnT got pounded by the blue decks.

[Quasim0ff]

The percentages he posted aren't worth the electrons they are printed on. Tao posted a link with matchup data revealing that both Elves and DnT got pounded by the blue decks.

Pretty sure the reason both DnT and Elves gets pounded is because of the red and white cards. Not the blue cards.

[H]

Saying that 70% of the field being X means that 70% of the top 8 should also be X seems logical, but that doesn't make it factual.

As a thought experiment, lets say 50% of a field decides for some reason to play Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro. The rest of the field plays real decks. Should we expect 50% of top 8 to be Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro? Or, is it reasonable to think there is more going on?

Additionally, if we see that 70% of the field is playing X, is it reasonable to expect that this is because X is probably the best thing to be doing?

[Tao]

Pretty sure the reason both DnT and Elves gets pounded is because of the red and white cards. Not the blue cards.

If by that you mean Terminus, that card wouldn't be half as good without - guess what - Brainstorm. And nonblue decks left that don't lose to Terminus (aka nonblue decks without at least 20 1-drop and 2-drop creatures) have been eradicated from the Meta by the OP'ness of Brainstorm and Co. They simply don't exist in the Meta anymore, so they don't even appear in that statistic.

Saying that 70% of the field being X means that 70% of the top 8 should also be X seems logical, but that doesn't make it factual.

As a thought experiment, lets say 50% of a field decides for some reason to play Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro. The rest of the field plays real decks. Should we expect 50% of top 8 to be Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro? Or, is it reasonable to think there is more going on?

Additionally, if we see that 70% of the field is playing X, is it reasonable to expect that this is because X is probably the best thing to be doing?

Yea, but even more, on top of that the statistic was a bunch of bullcrap, don't fall for it. The data from the tournament they quote (but don't understand) shows how the only two remaining nonblue decks have about 35% winrate against blue decks.

[testing32]

Saying that 70% of the field being X means that 70% of the top 8 should also be X seems logical, but that doesn't make it factual.

As a thought experiment, lets say 50% of a field decides for some reason to play Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro. The rest of the field plays real decks. Should we expect 50% of top 8 to be Mono-Green Bear-Tribal Aggro? Or, is it reasonable to think there is more going on?

Additionally, if we see that 70% of the field is playing X, is it reasonable to expect that this is because X is probably the best thing to be doing?

To add to this thought. If the natural balance is 70% of the field is that even healthy?

There will always be some equilibrium point that isn't 100% because of maindeck hate cards (REB, Choke, Carpet of Flowers, Spirit, Thalia, Chalice, etc) and card availability.

[Norm]

You know, brainstorm isn't really all that powerful. You still have to put two cards back...

[MGB]

So when is the announcement supposed to be made?

[nevilshute]

3 hours 45 mins from now.

11am EST.

That's what I heard.

[MGB]

3 hours 45 mins from now.

11am EST.

That's what I heard.

Thanks for the update.

[Dice_Box]

If you want to know when the real thing will land, hit dailymtg when this counter reaches zero.

[jedi_gof]

This has to be the most anticipated B&R update i can remember... The other anticipated i can remember as "exiting" ones had pretty clear cut offenders like mental misstep that had to be banned.

This time around multiple formats, for which only one I really care, are in the dark whether something really will happen or not.. Which in turn leads me to belive they do nothing in legacy unfortunately. :-/

Modern, something will happen to shake up the pro tour, expect numerous bans/unbans. :)

[Quasim0ff]

If by that you mean Terminus, that card wouldn't be half as good without - guess what - Brainstorm. And nonblue decks left that don't lose to Terminus (aka nonblue decks without at least 20 1-drop and 2-drop creatures) have been eradicated from the Meta by the OP'ness of Brainstorm and Co. They simply don't exist in the Meta anymore, so they don't even appear in that statistic.

I meant lightning bolt and swords to plowshares.
Elves was struggling with beating RUG Delver, and afaik RUG doesn't play Terminus.

[AznSeal]

The percentages he posted aren't worth the electrons they are printed on. Tao posted a link with matchup data revealing that both Elves and DnT got pounded by the blue decks.

Why is storm the same deck as delver?

Edit: Let's take Lands for example. There were 4 land decks out of 118 in day 2. They placed 91s, 54th, 19th, and 4th. Using a swiss triangle for 118 players and 6 rounds, these should have been the win/losses.

1 players at 6-0
12 players at 5-1
27 players at 4-2
38 players at 3-3
27 players at 2-4
12 players at 1-5
1 players at 0-6

Now since one land top 8ed, we can assume it went 5-1 on day 2.
One lands deck placed 19th, so we can assume it went 4-2.
One lands deck placed 54th, so we can assume it went 3-3.
One lands deck placed 9st, so we can assume it went 2-4.

In the top 8, lands went 1-1.

Overall, that's 15-11.

For Dredge, it went 12th, 44th, 52nd, and 117th. Using the same method as above, it's overall record should roughly be
5-1, 3-3, 3-3, 1-5, or 12-12, a true 50-50 deck.

Deathblade placed 39th, 67th, and 94th giving it an overall of around 9-9

A lot of decks, blue or not, went 50-50 overall. We shouldn't see if blue is overpowered or not, but if a particular archetype is overpowered or not.

Why do you care about color? Should we judge a deck based on what it can do? Sheesh, give MLK day some respect :P

[FoolofaTook]

So what? What strategy can't you play because of this? What archtype is the metagame unfairly oppressing? The way it looks to me and a lot of others is that aggro, control, combo, prison, etc. are all present and viable in the current Legacy metagame, so what, exactly, are you upset about? Color diversity is not a stated goal of Eternal magic, try another tack.

Creature aggro with turning creatures sideways in other than a combo finish. Any attempts at removal/attrition based mid-range, and Miracles doesn't count in that equation because it is combo-based control with CounterTop and Entreat the Angels (SDT/EtA) as it's two combos with Jace as an alternate win-con. Any attempts to sculpt the mana state on the board to be a particular state that is favorable to your design and unfavorable for the opponent. One list has this as an inconsistent feature in Death and Taxes but that list is not consistent enough to be a primary player in the meta. One viable list that tries to set the game state to a non-standard condition and exploit that (MUD) and it's not consistent enough to be a primary player in the meta. Any attempts to attack the opponent's hand as a primary strategy, Jund coming the closest and on the decline now in front of the blue shell and Treasure Cruise specifically.

Basically we've got a meta which is defined by two combo lists (Miracles and Elves) and a bunch of blue shell lists that are all aggro-control with 12 creatures or less in the game plan. Storm is not a major player in the meta because although it is very powerful when things go right it is suppressed heavily by all the blue running around. The outlier lists of D&T and MUD are just roadblocks that the blue shell has to plan for and know how to defeat.

The forces driving the format in this direction are not the Ponders and Brainstorms that we've had for the better part of two decades, it's ridiculous card design like TNN and Tarmogoyf that make running a base blue aggro midrange value deck viable. If you want to ban things, ban the dumb things. Brainstorm and Ponder reward decision making skill; TNN gives game wins to anybody who can tap three mana and name their opponent off the pairing board.

The forces driving this meta are absolutely Brainstorm and Ponder, alongside Force of Will. We've just had a 50%+ blue meta for so long that we can't see the forest for the trees at this point. Treasure Cruise and the power blue prints aggravated the situation and pushed the inclusion of blue up above two-thirds but non-blue cards that folded into the shell, specifically Tarmogoyf, Wasteland, Swords to Plowshares, Sensei's Divining Top, Mishra's Factory, Lightning Bolt, Stoneforge Mystic, Nimble Mongoose and Thoughtseize had made this meta extremely blue before WotC completely broke it in September with Khans of Tarkir.

This meta is a nightmare for somebody who does not like to play the blue shell because you can't get away from it, often playing against it many rounds in a row in competition and if you're not playing it you're giving up a competitive advantage in the competition. It's a terrible meta.

[Tao]

Why is storm the same deck as delver?

That was your initial post:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...l=1#post861790

Your conclusion was and I quote "I guess blue decks are just popular and not so much OP lol." That is a completely wrong conclusion when the only two remaining nonblue decks (Elves and D&T) are going 12-22 and 11-19 against blue decks.

[Dice_Box]

I would argue that of late, Combo Lands has held its own as a non Blue deck.

[AznSeal]

That was your initial post:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...l=1#post861790

Your conclusion was and I quote "I guess blue decks are just popular and not so much OP lol." That is a completely wrong conclusion when the only two remaining nonblue decks (Elves and D&T) are going 12-22 and 11-19 against blue decks.

Ok. I was mistaken then. I was using the shortcut (the shortcut being that I called decks "blue" when I should have explained I meant archtypes) that people here tend to use since people here tend to group all blue decks as the same archtype apparently because they all run brainstorm.

If you have even a small grasp of legacy matchup knowledge, you'd know that elves matches up well to fair blue decks and not so well to unfair blue decks, the keyword being fair and unfair, not blue. Likewise, elves matches up well to fair decks, and poorly to unfair decks, blue or not. We get shat on by Dredge, Belcher, etc.

Storm is good against certain decks. Miracles is good against certain decks. Delver is good against certain decks. Elves is good against certain decks. If you go ahead and group the decks that storm, miracles, and delver are good against together and say "blue decks", of course it's going to be higher.

[btm10]

Additionally, if we see that 70% of the field is playing X, is it reasonable to expect that this is because X is probably the best thing to be doing?

This is a good point, but the thing that 70% of the field is doing here isn't particularly restrictive or even that narrow despite it probably being the best thing.

[FoolofaTook]

This is a good point, but the thing that 70% of the field is doing here isn't particularly restrictive or even that narrow despite it probably being the best thing.

However it kind of forces you to do the 70% thing if you want reasonable chances to win. That something is best enough that 70% of people have to do it makes it a clear candidate to be pruned significantly.

[FoolofaTook]

I would argue that of late, Combo Lands has held its own as a non Blue deck.

However it hasn't held it's own enough to convince more than a smattering of players to play it. Same for MUD. D&T comes the closest to a non-blue/Elves list and it has been in decline also because people are beginning to clue into the fact that playing hate bears against blue has only a limited prospect of achieving overall advantage. This being because the hate bears aren't good enough to guarantee you anything and when you run into one of the outlier lists that don't run blue or elves you are at a significant disadvantage with your little bear getting run over by their actually fully effective creatures.