That kind of logic....Originally Posted by Tammit67
URW delver is not a control deck, Miracles is a control deck.
It's also match-up dependent. Is you assessment still the same if you know your opponent is on a Wasteland deck and that 1 land in your opening is a dual?
I mean, I get it. Some MU we cut a Plains in SB games, I agree. People tend to be on the safe side and not take enough risk. However, Wasteland does win games in this format.
URW is similar in that it really like hitting it's first 3 land drops. Regardless of what those lands are used for, they manage on fewer lands and fewer filter options. It's not like we cannot wrath if we don't hit 4 mana like the old days, we have a lot actionable cards on only 3 lands.
Look, if you aren't comfortable with what I've found comfort in, feel free to do what you think is best. I'm not arguing that I have the best setup, just that it works well enough for me as of now.
Matt Bevenour in real life
I may be incredibly skewed, but they sound like the same thing. ;)
EDIT: Also, T1 Ponder sees 3 or 5 cards, T1 Brainstorm sees 3.
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I'd argue a T1 top is much stronger :)
I'm in no way arguing a t1 is weak, just that there is quite a difference between safe and strong, imho :D
Sure, it can be better to play t1 ponder if u specifically need that 2nd land etc, which again makes it safer :)
Island, go is better than any of this.
From my phone. I do my best, dammit!
If I have no info I still play ponder turn 1. Keeping on top key cards and avoiding drawing uncastable stuff turn 2 is important.
And thats why you're playing ponder turn 1, among other reasons such as setting up the gameplan in the next 2 turns…like playing Cb etc
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Hell I might just wait a turn and play it turn 2 in my main phase, but I understand some find that really greedy
Matt Bevenour in real life
Turn 1 blind ponder is one of the best turn 1 plays miracles, or any legacy deck, can do. Every hand could use better cards, knowing what the matchup is does not change that.
Do some math and you will realize that you get mana screwed less with 4 ponders 21 lands than with 23 lands, and this does not even factor in how often you get mana flooded. This is even more true when facing stifles, wastes, ports, etc.
I would sooner play 19 lands and 4 ponders in miracles than play 23 lands with no ponders. Anyone NOT playing 4 ponders is either relying on their gut feeling in the face of contradicting evidence or too lazy/sloppy to cut 2 cards (and 2 lands) to fit in ponders. It reminds me of when I used to play/discuss Nic Fit and people (of all skill levels) would cut brainstorms from BUG lists and/or play 61 cards so they could fit in more super-situational cards.
Example situations, literally the first 3 hands drawn where there was at least 1 ponder:
Hand: Tarn, 2x brainstorm, top, swords, ponder, snap
Next 3 cards: Counterspell, Force, Balance
Shuffled card: tarn
Its a snap keep, but ponder and shuffling makes things way better. If ponder was a non land the hand is way worse. If it was a land the game plays out basically the same.
Hand: Mesa, island, tarn, entreat, jace, terminus, ponder
Next 3: CB, Dig, FoW
Shuffled: Volc
G1 against unknown I would mull it, but ponder certainty helps and is definitely better than land.
Hand: Volc, tarn, 2xStrand, top, ponder, FoW
top 3: Snap, CB, Brainstorm
Shuffled: Councils Judgment.
Again, ponder is way better than a land. I'd turn 1 top and then save the ponder till I needed a shuffle. If your top gets forced pitching something that would indicate a gindy matchup (jace, dig, tnn, etc) you can FoW back pitching the ponder.
No way you should run less than 4 ponders. 21 lands 8 cantrips is the best configuration for this deck. It just runs so smooth.
Waiting turn 2 for that Ponder is doable, but not the correct play. Generally whenever I'm still setting up my lands, gameplan, cb lock, etc I cast Ponders as soon as I can (generally= most of the times). Why on earth would you keep the Ponder for turn two when maybe the top 3 cards of your deck are blue source + Counterspell + X card? Or cc2 card, blue source, Counterbalance? Or maybe an Entreat Entreat Jace pile of crap you want to shuffle away? Or maybe a sensei's was hiding as the 3rd card and you would have played it 2 turns later without Ponder? Possibilities in which Ponder is effective turn 1 are endless... Waiting just doesn't make any sense at all to me.
Questioning the turn 1 Ponder is awkward, and I don't see much reasoning supporting any alternative line of play…unless you go turn 1 top out of pierce/daze range, of course (gotta say it otherwise people going to quote and point out the obvious).
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I cut a ponder (so playing 3/4/4) and I haven't struggled in any way, what so ever.
Got about 250 games after I did so, not missed it ONCE. It runs just as smooth, and the REB I swapped it with is still outstanding, even after TC was banned.
You make it sound like turn one ponder is better than top?
Lets get back to my previous starting hand. you play turn one ponder and see Jace, Entreat and brainstorm, what do you do? i guess you take Entreat and leave bs on top? then opp plays island preordain. on your secound turn you would be left with: sword, snapcaster, flooded strand, jace, terminus, Entreat and bs. but hey next turn you can flashback ponder if you dont miss your landdrop.
The point is: I want maximum value from my ponder. I get one card deeper, can just take one card of the ponder and probably know what exactly what i need after opps first turn. whats the drawback? loss of speed?
Under the before mentioned circumstances i vehemently disagree that turn one ponder is a no brainer/correct play.
Turn 1, game 1 versus an unknown opponent, I'd be VERY hardpressed not just going Top > Go, if I had the possibility. You are safe from Daze/Pierce, which means the only stopping you should be FoW.
I'd muuuuuch rather have top in play, rather than having to play it later, with chance of more permission.
I don't, but you certainly make it sound like you can't understand what you read.
Please read again carefully, there's also a line in brackets for you wild flamers that quote stuff without reading it.
Of course. In fact that's exactly what I wrote…
I'd shuffle.
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You can make up a lot of examples where ponder shines and then you have the matchups where a land drop cant be countered like a ponder can. What is this statistic that you speak of making all lists except 4-ponder obsolete? I can create hundreds of hands for us to discuss but in the end lets just agree that lists are different due to play style and meta.
I run the afforementioned 22 lands with 2 ponder. Could I cut a land and a vendilion clique to follow the sheep in this thread? Why yes sir. Should I? Based on what statistic will this make me win more games? I have tried both lists and they are both fine and win games.
I repeat what I posted a few pages back, it is not a matter of changing 2 cards in your otherwise 58 card clones, it's about playing well and making correct decisions when it's crunch time. But I guess that people are tired of hearing this by now, since then they have nothing to discuss here.
Turn 1 ON THE PLAY, or on the draw against a non-blue deck, it is important to resolve top while you can. So yes, play it turn 1 over ponder. But if that is not an option, pondering is the best thing you can do.
Drawing the jace/entreat and then next turn brainstorming the expensive spells away in search of lands isn't a bad line. I would probably just shuffle though. That hand needs land, top or CB and basically nothing else. The top 3 were none of those cards. I would not feel worried in that situation. Between ponders draw, turn 2 draw and turn 3 draw, there's about a 27% chance you DONT see a land and end up missing your 3rd land drop.
It's not even so much that someone can counter your Ponder than it is that when you're mana-screwed, you're being forced to use what's very likely your only blue in play to cast it. This is also compounded by the fact that you increase the number of 0 and 1-landers marginally by cutting land. If you get mana-screwed/Wastelanded and your opponent starts dumping their hand while you're bottle-necked, you may end up using 1 of the 5-7 mana you actually have available to you the first few turns of the game. If you factor in that all of this is secondary to activating a Top each turn, there's just not a ton of mana to go around in some starts. By turn 4, you can basically lose a game. The theoretical maximum amount of mana you can use by then is 10. More realistically it's 6-8, before taking into account Top activations.
But hey, these are just my reasons for not running Ponder in the first place. I tried that card as a 2-of way back before people were posting lists with it, along with Portent, Impulse, Predict, etc. I hated Ponder more than any of the others. If I was going to run 4 copies however, I would definitely be cutting land. In fact, I'd probably start with 20.
Here's another Top-related one for you:
Game 1 VS. unknown archetype, mulled to 6 on the draw. Here's your hand:
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Top
1 Spell Pierce
1 Entreat the Angels
1 Swords to Plowshares
That's a pretty awesome hand - answers to basically anything and secure mana ressources.
Opponent plays Verdant Catacombs and passes the turn.
Question: Turn one Top or Island, go? I'd opt for the latter (mostly due to Hymn and random shenanigans), while I'm sure quite a few among you go for Top without hesitating.
The Pierce + Top opener has countless factors that make it tough to conclude on the right play.
Besides the above example, what's your general approach to this?
Hymn isn't good against you once you drop your Top, but I'd still play the Island and pass. My assumption is that they have Goyf, Liliana, and/or a significant amount of countermagic. You can easily get your Top countered, even by a Daze, which is one of the worst things a hand with no turn 1 play is going to do to you. If your opponent is on Storm, waiting a turn on the Top isn't that much worse, I don't think.
EDIT: Ponder players don't even have Pierce, I don't think.
I would keep up mana for spell pierce.
-There is little to gain by playing the top turn 1 since you likely cannot use on upkeep.
-If they are Team America and have daze you get super punished for casting top.
-If jund or bug and they hymn you get super punished for casting top. If they just cast a goyf it doesnt matter.
-If its elves or maverick they could cast GSZ or just some dude that is not important.
-If its reanimator you also get punished for casting top.
I'm on Island -> Go, as I want to be holding up Pierce, and not walking Dazes.
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