While we are at it, I had this hand last night against a (let's say) unknown opponent.Originally Posted by apocolyps6
Badlands, 2x Fetch, Thicket, 2x Chalice, 1 Sylv Library
Would you keep it on the play? and on the draw?
I did on the play, would not kept on the draw
I think I'd be hard pressed to find a scenario where I don't keep this. It's lacking in early game versatility, which could leave you broken versus some really shit strategies, but the hand is overall set to absolutely dominate the mid-late game. Unless I knew for sure that it was hard-countered by whatever my opponent is playing, I keep.
1) Keep on the draw as you're already down to six and there's a lot worse things you can mull into. Mull on the draw because you're guaranteed to get shit on.
2) I would definitely pause at this one, but I'd be likely to keep because, even though it's a gamble, it's a gamble that's in your favor and you have the tools to get back into the fight even if you stumble.
3&4) Mull.
Hey guys,
wanted to chime in here. I'm a blue control mage normally (Miracles!! ;) ) but started to become interested in this deck.
I'm playing it now since around the time of the GP and I'm having a blast. The last two tournaments I attended went like this:
GrixisDelver 0:2
Death and Taxes 2:0
Miracles 2:1
Mirror 11
MUD 2:0
Top 8:
Omnitell 2:0
Esperblade 2:1
Mirror 2:0
Next tournament was in my hometown:
SneakShow 2:1
Mirror 1:1
Mentor Miracles 2:0
Omnitell 2:0 (we drew before, as it's a harder MU and we could both win last round to win the tournament still)
Esperblade 2:0
I was really happy with the deck, and two consecutive wins. I'm testing the deck a lot with a good friend and decided to change the sideboard a little. This is what I brought:
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Thoughtseize
2 Slaughter Games
2 Golgari Charm
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Choke
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Toxic Deluge
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
This setup is more generic than the "usual" board (-1 Sulfur Elemental, - 1 Engineered Plague for 1 Maelstrom Pulse and 1 Toxic Deluge).
There are quite some reasons I prefer these changes:
First being the flexibility of these Cards, being able to board them in in nearly all the midrange MU's i HUGE.
Moreover I prefer Deluge against Mentor. Sulfur can be played around and will just sit there doing nothing on his own, while the opponent might be able to kill you just with Mentor (top loop, cantrip digging and so on) or swords your Sulfur and begin from there.
This frees the Canonist slot for another Thalia, which I prefer in every combo-ish MU (just missing him vs Elves) and to further suppress control decks.
On another note, I don't like the Deathrite Shaman in the maindeck.
So often it's a dead topdeck (Chalice resolved beforehand) and I nearly never Zenith for Deathrite.
Usually it's Zenith for Arbor or Knight (and ofc your bears for the specific MU's).
I'm replacing it with a Quasali Pridemage atm but could see a 4th Decay or even something different work here, too!
What are your thoughts on this topic? Anyone made similiar experiences with Shaman?
I like these starthand questions :)
I'd keep 1 + 2 otP for sure and otD debatable; 3 are 4 mulls for me quite sure!
Greetings Johannes
It is really hard to ever really justify keeping 1 mana source hands in a deck with basically only 3 one drops.
1/2 I might keep this. It is very greedy and could go horribly wrong. I would be more likely to keep it on the play to insure I get to untap with at least 1 mana source. Getting wasted/bolted/dazed would really suck.
3 are not even close, definitely mull unless you know its a grindy matchup like miracles or something.
4 I would definitely keep this. The hand is nothing stellar but the average 6 you could draw is a lot worse.
Also, FYI, the difference between drawing a 2nd land after keeping a 1 land 7 card hard with 28 lands vs the normal 24 lands is 50% to 43%. A 7% difference isnt THAT much. Don't over value your your land count in your choice to keep bad hands. Also, I am guessing that like 8 of those 28 lands are Mazes, Wastes, cycle lands or otherwise not so useful lands so drawing those doesn't help much is a lot of situations.
I would keep this on the play or draw. It doesn't even really seem close to me. It has the perfect amount of land 3-4, you can fetch arbor if needed, you will be able to stick a chalice and then refill with library.
I was initially tempted to "keep" this hand because two lands and a Deathrite Shaman is a mighty fine start, but the truth is that the hand has nothing going for it. Not even a gamble for "well if I draw X it becomes amazing!". Winning the bet and drawing X here only means you're still afloat. The lands are effectively mono-green and enable absolutely nothing that you have in hand or can potentially draw, you have no food for Deathrite Shaman even if he lives aside from whatever your opponent dumps or maybe Tranquil Thicket depending on the draws, and Tranquil Thicket being your second land ensures that you can't even cast the consolation-Scooze in time.
If this was a hand of six I'd probably be tempted to keep it since five cards really starts getting into iffy territory, but this is the opening seven. I've won countless games with ok mulls to 6, but I rarely find myself the victor in games where my master plan is to let my opponent freely flip cantrips and drop creatures without pressure for three turns.
I was actually thinking #4 was too easy a decision. As a modification to this,
#6: Savannah, DRS, Decay, Thicket, Scooze.
Bad 5. Would you go to 4?
Keep.
It's likely a loss either way, but at least here I know I can present the concept of a fight.
Generally, if you look at a questionable hand of 7 and think "mull" but would keep the same hand minus the worst card if you had to mull to 6, you should have just kept the 7. I think people mull too often in legacy though. If you mulled to 6 and saw "Savannah, DRS, 2x Decay, Thicket, Scooze", would you keep that? I would definitely rather have that than 5 random cards.
I agree hand #4 is nothing great, but it can cast most of its spells, especially if the opponent fetches. The hand suddenly becomes amazing if it draws a land in the next 2 turns. Drawing into a lily, last decay or pfire are pretty much the only cards I would NOT want to see. I think it is better than the average 6 card hand.
I think you are not giving enough credit to the notion that your 6 can also be above average. Actually, 2 decent lands, Chalice, removal spell, 2x w.e is probably a better 6 than #4 and I would not say that it is above average.
There are 7s that are not keeps, but if you remove the worst card are just keepable 6s (30-40% in terms of quality). I think you have better odds mulling to 6.
I still play the 1x Tarmogoyf from the 2014 BoM list in this slot, haha. I think QPM is probably fine here too.
Presented this one lander earlier today:
Bayou, Deathrite Shaman, Mox Diamond, Green Sun's Zenith, Dark Confidant, Gaddock Teeg, and Punishing Fire.
On the play, keep or mulligan?
You can green sun for dryd arbor so that's a good why. What deck did you meet? If I met Rug delver, mull but agansit strom keep.
Lets break this hand down a bit.
Bayou, Deathrite Shaman, Mox Diamond, Green Sun's Zenith, Dark Confidant, Gaddock Teeg, and Punishing Fire.
Mana:
Bayou, Deathrite Shaman, Mox Diamond, Green Sun's Zenith
Green sun can eventually become a threat rather than mana, but we are far from that atm. The mana takes up a lot of cards but there isn't much of it.
Threats/Answers:
Dark Confidant, Gaddock Teeg, and Punishing Fire
None of these cards are super great. Both Teeg and Pfire are somewhat situational.
I'd mull because there isn't really a compelling reason to keep this 7.
That is a very keepable hand. You can turn make mox and DRS. If they answer DRS you can GSZ for arbor. If they answer that as well, then you've had 3 turns to draw another a land so odds are you found one and can recover with Bob or whatever else you drew. If you drop DRS and then draw lands, then the GSZ can turn into a threat. This hand is above average vs combo or miracles. A bit below average vs delver and average vs midrange. In the blind, I would keep this. Vs a known delver deck I would mull this. Vs delver making land drops and sticking a knight are super important and if you can land an early chalice that's just gravy, but this hand does not play at all into that plan.
I don't think this is a good reason to mull a hand. You are not always going to get god hands and there is no compelling reason to mull this hand vs an unknown matchup.I'd mull because there isn't really a compelling reason to keep this 7.
I really like these discussions about keeps vs mulls with this deck. It is nice when people have different approaches and ways of thinking about hands. With this deck it is super important too because without a pile of blue cantrips the contents of the opening hand and calculator the odds of drawing certain cards becomes super important.
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the 1-land hands... would people keep this hand?
Taiga, Mox Diamond, Tranquil Thicket, Grove of the Burnwillows, Windswept Heath , Life from the Loam, Gaddock Teeg
For reference, I've been running Qasali Pridemage since forever and am quite content with it. It makes for a fine beater and its utility is always welcome.
In a heartbeat.
Also, unless you truly fear getting Wastelanded out, dropping the Bayou as a regular land instead of pitching it to Mox Diamond should be the go-to play while on one land. Reason being that the chance of you drawing into something like Tranquil Thicket, Barren Moor, Wasteland, Maze of Ith, or Karakas is pretty significant, and the occurrence of such can leave you vigorously fucked unless you're able to transmute it into land via Mox Diamond.
Yes. We have a thicket + loam engine going and that gets us our choice of lands turn after turn. We also easily can dredge through to a P-Fire to get that engine going as well. The Teeg may as well be a dead card in some matchups, but it's my second most frequent GSZ target following Dryad Arbor.
Also, going back to the Qasali Pridemage > Deathrite Shaman, I really like that option. I may try that out tonight if I feel like playing this deck (though its likely It'll be tossed aside until after Eternal Weekend for me to feel better about Blue decks). Very likely I'll be running this in the Invitational in 2 weeks, it seems great in an expected invitational meta, while much more risky in a 2 Losses removes you from contention event like Legacy Champs.
@TheArchitect
I think this is a philosophical difference. You need a reason to mull and I need a reason to keep.
The way I see it, I don't need all 7 cards to beat the average opponent. If I have a good 6 or even 5 I'm better off than an average 7. This is because cards like Chalice, Loam, Library, Punishing Fire, Wastelands, (and sometimes other cards but in more subtle ways) are good enough to make up for a 1-2 card disadvantage. In practice keeping that kind of hand for me has lead to close games I can win, but I feel the full force of not being a blue deck there. Mulling on the other hand is likely to increase the quality of my hand.
As for : Taiga, Mox Diamond, Tranquil Thicket, Grove of the Burnwillows, Windswept Heath , Life from the Loam, Gaddock Teeg
I'd keep. I'd probably do something like Mox, fetch, loam T1 and expect to draw, cantrip and play the best 2drop on turn 2. Not exactly the god hand but potentially very powerful if I draw a Pfire, Wasteland, Mox, or just any high quality 2drop.
About playing Mox vs Bayou in the other hand, if you play bayou you are potentially cutting yourself off from both Gaddock Teeg, and Punishing Fire. If your opponent is playing 1 mana removal/LD of any kind you are in trouble. 2 removal spells and you are playing of the top of your deck. If keeping is the "conservative" line here and mulling is the "aggressive" then not playing the mox is even more aggressive. Betting on a land in the top 2 +more good card is riskier than just getting a new 6 IMO.
I would also keep:
I was just curious what peoples thoughts on the slow all-in on loam hands were.Taiga, Mox Diamond, Tranquil Thicket, Grove of the Burnwillows, Windswept Heath, Life from the Loam, Gaddock Teeg
However I would play this differently from apocolyps6, and I believe this the correct opening line here. Actually lead with fetch and pass. EOT crack fetch and cycle thicket, if they waste their turn stifling our excess land that actually a big win for us. Loam turn 1 doesn't do much since we already have all the mana producing lands we need. If it was a 2 land, mox hand this would be excellent line though. But cycling thicket turn 1 increases our odds of drawing something better to do on turn 2 (knight, lily, chalice, etc) but puts us in the same place if the plan is just to loam since you can on turn 2 play the mox, and loam back (now 3) lands AND cycle thicket again to maximize drawing good stuff.
One third of the average deck's land base is dedicated to fluff that won't bail you out while "Wasteland -> go" is one of the worst blind openers on the draw. Your Bayou has little to fear while leading with a Mox Diamond cuts your odds of being able to live significantly. With that in mind, the play should be Bayou - >Green Sun's Zenith for Dryad Arbor. Pass turn, and hope that they don't have or don't use removal...
If they kill the Arbor, you you're on land-or-lose. The same position you would be in if they killed a mana dork that was cast with Mox Diamond.
If they don't kill your Dryad Arbor but you don't draw a land, casting Dark Confidant has to be the priority and so being able to cast Punishing Fire or Gaddock Teeg doesn't really matter.
If they kill the Arbor and you draw a land, you win the war while the Mox Diamond play only wins the war if that land was in the 66%.
In none of the relevant scenarios does first turn Mox Diamond come out ahead. It even loses in terms of mind-games. A hand that leads with Mox Diamond and no land drop is a most deafening telegraph.
All of that being said, I do think keeping that particular hand is an exceptionally risky plan withtoo little payoff and shouldn't be attempted. Also, it's worth noting that I'm typing this on my phone and that the above was all written with "being on the play" in mind since being on the draw is just begging for a slaughter.
Agreed with this. Different on the draw of course, but this is the proper opening sequence while on the play. +/- casting Mox Diamond regardless based on intuition or gut feeling.
There is some merit to casting the Loam first, but I feel it would be better under slightly different circumstances.
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