[Deck] Turbo Depths

[apple713]

Just getting into this deck and I am loving it. I wanted to know what everyone's thoughts were on Living Wish. At a local event, I tested a version of the deck that used the wish plus a wish board. I ended up going undefeated, 2-0 against everything. Matchups were R/G lands, Maverick, Burn, and Esper Stoneblade. We split top 4, so I can't say much more than this, however, it looks promising. This is my list for reference-
http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck.asp?deck_id=1213750

Outside of what is posted in the primer about it I don't know what else i could add that would dissuade you. Quote from primer: "Living Wish: Decreases consistency of drawing into the combo naturally (which is ideal) and slows down the deck. Also makes you more susceptible to counterspells."

Additionally, you can run a search through the entire thread for posts that talk about living wish by searching "living wish".

Here are the statistics

Assumptions: the "combo" is dark depths + hexmage OR stage; the "tutors" are 4x crop rotation and 4x sylvan scrying; stats do not take into account Brainstorm or Sylvan library or sensei's divining top.

Without living wish

Chances of drawing the combo naturally within the opening hand - 26.11%

Chances of drawing the combo naturally after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 36.62%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece in opening hand - 72.90%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 84.40%

With living wish (-1 depths, -1 stage, -1 hexmage, +4 living wish)

Chances of drawing the combo naturally within the opening hand - 17.08%

Chances of drawing the combo naturally after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 25.06%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece in opening hand - 76.73%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 87.32%

Braintstorm vs 4 other Tutors

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 88.07 (+4x brainstorm)

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 93.44 (+4x Tutors)


Takeaways from statistics

1. you reduce your chances of drawing the combo naturally by 10%
2. Adding 1 additional tutor ONLY increases the chances of getting the combo by 3-4%. This number is certain to be subject to diminishing returns.
3. You have 5.37% better chance of getting the combo with 4x tutors than with 4x brainstorm. HOWEVER, this does not take into account the added value of brainstorm being able to find other cards, like sideboard pieces, OR its ability to put back multiples of a card you don't need.
4. You have a 12.04% better chance to draw the combo pieces or tutors after drawing 9 cards with 4x tutors instead of 4x brainstorm.


Non statistics stuff

You can also think about this logically. Why do you lose most games?

1. Were you killed because you couldn't find the combo in about 4 turns?
2. Were you killed because a combo deck beat you first?
3. Were you killed because you couldn't attack with the token (i.e. it was STP / karakas / terminus / maze / etc)
4. Were you killed because you were out tempo'd?

I think the general consensus is that MOST games are lost because of #2 & #3. If you are losing because of #1 then i would first start by looking at the hands that you are keeping.

BUT for the sake of argument lets consider how living wish helps vs each of the options.
1. It cost 2 mana so it is like 5-8 sylvan scrying. Some lists don't run sylvan scrying because expedition map is better for their manabase. I don't think many versions of the deck run more than 8 tutor spells. You could consider Negator's list to have more if you considered the brainstorms but other lists that don't run brainstorm often use sylvan library. Drawing into the combo naturally happens fairly often.

2. If you are losing before turn 3 living wish won't help because you won't be able to cast your wish target until turn 3.

3. One of the best cards you could get with wish to combat these issues is Not of this world and you can't get that. The second would probably be pithing needle. The only two targets i could find useful are sylvan safekpeer, and wasteland / ghost quarter.

4. If you are getting out tempo'd then you surely won't have extra time to cast a spell.


ALSO, please let me know if the statistics were helpful or if you would like me to run other statistics.

[jmlima]

I've read the thread and noted that there did not seem to be a consensus on Mox Diamond.

Checking some of the latest winning decks in mtgtop8 ( http://mtgtop8.com/archetype?a=555 ), 4 out of 6 use 4 Mox Diamond, 1 uses 3 Mox Diamond, the other has none.

This seems to indicate it is a good choice.

What am I missing here ?

[apple713]

I've read the thread and noted that there did not seem to be a consensus on Mox Diamond.

Checking some of the latest winning decks in mtgtop8 ( http://mtgtop8.com/archetype?a=555 ), 4 out of 6 use 4 Mox Diamond, 1 uses 3 Mox Diamond, the other has none.

This seems to indicate it is a good choice.

What am I missing here ?

They are all played by the same player so naturally he's going to play the same deck. His name is negator77 and his list is featured in the primer.

Mox diamond is good to help with speed and mana fixing. Not all versions need mana fixing and some are built to be slower but safer so they don't need the speed. You need 20+ lands to include 2x mox diamond and 24+ to include 4x.

Mox diamond is bad because drawing it in multiples sucks since its pretty large card disadvantage. This is why I prefer 2x over 4x. I run 2x without brainstorm and its fine. If you run 4x you need brainstorm OR life from the loam to offset the card disadvantage. Negator has had success with his list playing brainstorm. However, if you play 4x life from the loam you are probably better off running the lands version of the deck.

A note on brainstorm. Statistically the value created by brainstorm does not come from it's ability to tutor for the combo pieces but rather to put back cards you don't need and trade them for cards you do need. SO, if you are not running cards like mox diamond that are bad in multiples it may be better to use brainstorm instead of something like sylvan library that has the ability to generate more value.

[caprino]

What do you think of this list?

Creatures (8)

4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Vampire Hexmage

Lands (21)

1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
4 Bayou
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sejiri Steppe
4 Thespian's Stage
1 Karakas
1 Shizo, Death's Storehouse
3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Dark Depths

Spells (31)

3 Expedition Map
4 Lotus Petal
4 Pithing Needle
4 Crop Rotation
3 Into the North
1 Rite of Consumption
4 Sylvan Scrying
4 Thoughtseize
4 Not of This World

Sideboard
3 Ashen Rider
3 Dread of Night
4 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Abrupt Decay
1 Bojuka Bog
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

[apple713]

What do you think of this list?

Creatures (8)

4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Vampire Hexmage

Lands (21)

1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
4 Bayou
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sejiri Steppe
4 Thespian's Stage
1 Karakas
1 Shizo, Death's Storehouse
3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Dark Depths

Spells (31)

3 Expedition Map
4 Lotus Petal
4 Pithing Needle
4 Crop Rotation
3 Into the North
1 Rite of Consumption
4 Sylvan Scrying
4 Thoughtseize
4 Not of This World

Sideboard
3 Ashen Rider
3 Dread of Night
4 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Abrupt Decay
1 Bojuka Bog
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

there are several cards that don't really solve the problems of the deck. Rite of consumption is really only beneficial against a deck like death and taxes because they don't have counterspells. Decks with counterspells such as miracles, are gonna present problems.

Not of this world is more of a sideboard card because unless a deck is running mainboard sword to plowshares / karakas / maze of ith, its kinda of wasted. Against most combo, and fair decks like delver / shardless you won't have the need for them.

There is no card draw like sylvan library to get to the cards faster in the matches you need them in.

This version is fast but I'm not sure that its speed improves any of its bad matches. This is the reason the consensus on this forum has been that the speed is excessive and unnecessary. For example, assume that you draw your combo naturally in your opening hand. You still need to get to turn 2 to make the token, and attack on turn 3. Thats sill slow vs ANT because you don't have sufficient protection.

here are the probabilities and reasons i don't like leyline of sanctuary, especially in a deck that has little to no means of hardcassting it.

Odds of getting it in
opening - 39.95%
after 1 mull - 61.06%
after 2 mull - 72.76%
after 3 mull - 79.49%
after 4 mull - 83.38%
after 5 mull - 85.54%
after 6 mull - 86.50%

realistically i guess you can get it 70% of the time and still have a decent chance at winning. Thats only assuming the opponent can't find their chain of vapors, which they probably will. They can still cast ad nauseous to filter through their decks and get what they need.


TLDR: I'm sure it will do fine in weekly tournaments but I think it could use improvements.

[caprino]

there are several cards that don't really solve the problems of the deck. Rite of consumption is really only beneficial against a deck like death and taxes because they don't have counterspells. Decks with counterspells such as miracles, are gonna present problems.

Not of this world is more of a sideboard card because unless a deck is running mainboard sword to plowshares / karakas / maze of ith, its kinda of wasted. Against most combo, and fair decks like delver / shardless you won't have the need for them.

There is no card draw like sylvan library to get to the cards faster in the matches you need them in.

This version is fast but I'm not sure that its speed improves any of its bad matches. This is the reason the consensus on this forum has been that the speed is excessive and unnecessary. For example, assume that you draw your combo naturally in your opening hand. You still need to get to turn 2 to make the token, and attack on turn 3. Thats sill slow vs ANT because you don't have sufficient protection.

here are the probabilities and reasons i don't like leyline of sanctuary, especially in a deck that has little to no means of hardcassting it.

Odds of getting it in
opening - 39.95%
after 1 mull - 61.06%
after 2 mull - 72.76%
after 3 mull - 79.49%
after 4 mull - 83.38%
after 5 mull - 85.54%
after 6 mull - 86.50%

realistically i guess you can get it 70% of the time and still have a decent chance at winning. Thats only assuming the opponent can't find their chain of vapors, which they probably will. They can still cast ad nauseous to filter through their decks and get what they need.


TLDR: I'm sure it will do fine in weekly tournaments but I think it could use improvements.

write a list what would you do at this time

[apple713]

write a list what would you do at this time

like what changes i would make to it?

[Captain Hammer]

I've read the thread and noted that there did not seem to be a consensus on Mox Diamond.

Checking some of the latest winning decks in mtgtop8 ( http://mtgtop8.com/archetype?a=555 ), 4 out of 6 use 4 Mox Diamond, 1 uses 3 Mox Diamond, the other has none.

This seems to indicate it is a good choice.

What am I missing here ?

Speaking of mtgtop8 winning decks, it seems like we arrived at a consensus optimal build...


4 Gemstone Mine
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Dark Depths
4 Thespian's Stage
4 Polluted Delta
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Bayou
1 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
1 Sojeri Steppe
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Wasteland

4 Mox Diamond
4 Thoughtseize
4 Vampire Hexmage
2 Duress
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Abrupt Decay

4 Brainstorm
4 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
3 Sylvan Scying

Pretty much every single deck that top 8ed in the past few months is playing something that is nearly identical to the above list.

So have we reached a consensus build, or do you guys see any issues with the above build of the deck that is currently dominating mtgtop8?

[apple713]

Speaking of mtgtop8 winning decks, it seems like we arrived at a consensus optimal build...


4 Gemstone Mine
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Dark Depths
4 Thespian's Stage
4 Polluted Delta
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Bayou
1 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
1 Sojeri Steppe
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Wasteland

4 Mox Diamond
4 Thoughtseize
4 Vampire Hexmage
2 Duress
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Abrupt Decay

4 Brainstorm
4 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
3 Sylvan Scying

Pretty much every single deck that top 8ed in the past few months is playing something that is nearly identical to the above list.

So have we reached a consensus build, or do you guys see any issues with the above build of the deck that is currently dominating mtgtop8?

like i mentioned earlier its the same player. The other players play different lists. Some use brainstorm some don't.

[adrieng]

I have been testing tainted pact and I prefer ancient stirrings because of the addition of chalice of the void.
I am right now sure that chalice of the void is a good maindeck choice. Here is my latest build. the eldrazi matchup is positive and so is miracle.
I have also added 2 decay which are good not to scoop to an early CB or kotr in G1. Cut into the reb.
I am happy with everything except maybe the grafidiggers cage which i don't use a lot.


4 Dark Depths
4 Thespian's Stage
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Copperline Gorge
4 Mana Confluence
1 Gemstone Mine
1 Forest
1 Maze of Ith
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sejiri Steppe

4 Crop Rotation
4 Expedition Map
4 Vampire Hexmage
3 Sylvan Scrying
3 Ancient Stirrings

4 Sylvan Library
4 Pithing Needle
1 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
2 Abrupt Decay

SB: 1 Bojuka Bog
SB: 4 Krosan Grip
SB: 4 Not of This World
SB: 3 Ratchet Bomb
SB: 3 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Marit Lage

[caprino]

Next week I will take this list here at a big tournament

4 vampire hexmage
2 Duress
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Sylvan Scrying
4 Thoughtseize
1 Abrupt Decay
4 Brainstorm
4 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
4 Mox Diamond
2 Bayou
1 Bojuka Bog
4 Dark Depths
4 Gemstone Mine
2 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
1 Sejiri Steppe
4 Thespian’s Stage
1 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Wasteland
side:
1 Abrupt Decay
3 Flusterstorm
1 Ghost Quarter
2 Krosan Grip
4 Pithing Needle
4 Surgical Extraction

I find very solid deck what you think?

[-Spooky-]

Outside of what is posted in the primer about it I don't know what else i could add that would dissuade you. Quote from primer: "Living Wish: Decreases consistency of drawing into the combo naturally (which is ideal) and slows down the deck. Also makes you more susceptible to counterspells."

Additionally, you can run a search through the entire thread for posts that talk about living wish by searching "living wish".

Here are the statistics

Assumptions: the "combo" is dark depths + hexmage OR stage; the "tutors" are 4x crop rotation and 4x sylvan scrying; stats do not take into account Brainstorm or Sylvan library or sensei's divining top.

Without living wish

Chances of drawing the combo naturally within the opening hand - 26.11%

Chances of drawing the combo naturally after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 36.62%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece in opening hand - 72.90%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 84.40%

With living wish (-1 depths, -1 stage, -1 hexmage, +4 living wish)

Chances of drawing the combo naturally within the opening hand - 17.08%

Chances of drawing the combo naturally after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 25.06%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece in opening hand - 76.73%

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 87.32%

Braintstorm vs 4 other Tutors

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 88.07 (+4x brainstorm)

Chances of drawing both combo pieces or a tutor to get the missing combo piece after drawing 9 cards (3rd turn if you are on the play turn 2 on the draw) - 93.44 (+4x Tutors)


Takeaways from statistics

1. you reduce your chances of drawing the combo naturally by 10%
2. Adding 1 additional tutor ONLY increases the chances of getting the combo by 3-4%. This number is certain to be subject to diminishing returns.
3. You have 5.37% better chance of getting the combo with 4x tutors than with 4x brainstorm. HOWEVER, this does not take into account the added value of brainstorm being able to find other cards, like sideboard pieces, OR its ability to put back multiples of a card you don't need.
4. You have a 12.04% better chance to draw the combo pieces or tutors after drawing 9 cards with 4x tutors instead of 4x brainstorm.


Non statistics stuff

You can also think about this logically. Why do you lose most games?

1. Were you killed because you couldn't find the combo in about 4 turns?
2. Were you killed because a combo deck beat you first?
3. Were you killed because you couldn't attack with the token (i.e. it was STP / karakas / terminus / maze / etc)
4. Were you killed because you were out tempo'd?

I think the general consensus is that MOST games are lost because of #2 & #3. If you are losing because of #1 then i would first start by looking at the hands that you are keeping.

BUT for the sake of argument lets consider how living wish helps vs each of the options.
1. It cost 2 mana so it is like 5-8 sylvan scrying. Some lists don't run sylvan scrying because expedition map is better for their manabase. I don't think many versions of the deck run more than 8 tutor spells. You could consider Negator's list to have more if you considered the brainstorms but other lists that don't run brainstorm often use sylvan library. Drawing into the combo naturally happens fairly often.

2. If you are losing before turn 3 living wish won't help because you won't be able to cast your wish target until turn 3.

3. One of the best cards you could get with wish to combat these issues is Not of this world and you can't get that. The second would probably be pithing needle. The only two targets i could find useful are sylvan safekpeer, and wasteland / ghost quarter.

4. If you are getting out tempo'd then you surely won't have extra time to cast a spell.


ALSO, please let me know if the statistics were helpful or if you would like me to run other statistics.

This was all very helpful, thank you! I will tinker with non-living wish versions, then. I think I need to decide whether or not to use brainstorm, Mox Diamond, etc, and what the correct number of libraries is. There seems to be a lot of discussion on all of this, so I'll read on and let you guys know if I have any more questions.

[apple713]

I have been testing tainted pact and I prefer ancient stirrings because of the addition of chalice of the void.
I am right now sure that chalice of the void is a good maindeck choice. Here is my latest build. the eldrazi matchup is positive and so is miracle.
I have also added 2 decay which are good not to scoop to an early CB or kotr in G1. Cut into the reb.
I am happy with everything except maybe the grafidiggers cage which i don't use a lot.


4 Dark Depths
4 Thespian's Stage
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Copperline Gorge
4 Mana Confluence
1 Gemstone Mine
1 Forest
1 Maze of Ith
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Sejiri Steppe

4 Crop Rotation
4 Expedition Map
4 Vampire Hexmage
3 Sylvan Scrying
3 Ancient Stirrings

4 Sylvan Library
4 Pithing Needle
1 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
2 Abrupt Decay

SB: 1 Bojuka Bog
SB: 4 Krosan Grip
SB: 4 Not of This World
SB: 3 Ratchet Bomb
SB: 3 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Marit Lage

I usually don't have a problem running 1cmc spells with chalice but I've never run 18 1 cmc spells. Are you finding that it's too much?

Also, you used to not like "not of this world", what has changed your mind about including it in the SB?

This was all very helpful, thank you! I will tinker with non-living wish versions, then. I think I need to decide whether or not to use brainstorm, Mox Diamond, etc, and what the correct number of libraries is. There seems to be a lot of discussion on all of this, so I'll read on and let you guys know if I have any more questions.

There are 3 differing views to consider. Adrien ( if i recall correctly ) prefers not to use mox diamond cause it leads to inconsistencies. Negator77, likes to run them because he also uses brainstorms. Negator does not use chalice of the void and has not tested with it but I would imagine that he might have to cut the brainstorms if he were to run chalice, unless chalice was a SB card. I'm in the middle of the road and believe that chalice is a main board card and that mox inconsistencies can be balanced by running 2. They still benefit the basinal first turn chalice, and I have included 1 Life from the loam help with my lower land count and with card disadvantage from moxes. While they only make up 3 cards in the deck they add depth and complexity.

[Captain Hammer]

Next week I will take this list here at a big tournament

4 vampire hexmage
2 Duress
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Sylvan Scrying
4 Thoughtseize
1 Abrupt Decay
4 Brainstorm
4 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
4 Mox Diamond
2 Bayou
1 Bojuka Bog
4 Dark Depths
4 Gemstone Mine
2 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
1 Sejiri Steppe
4 Thespian’s Stage
1 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Wasteland
side:
1 Abrupt Decay
3 Flusterstorm
1 Ghost Quarter
2 Krosan Grip
4 Pithing Needle
4 Surgical Extraction

I find very solid deck what you think?

That main deck looks godawful, play this list instead...

Speaking of mtgtop8 winning decks, it seems like we arrived at a consensus optimal build...


4 Gemstone Mine
4 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Dark Depths
4 Thespian's Stage
4 Polluted Delta
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Bayou
1 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
1 Sojeri Steppe
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Wasteland

4 Mox Diamond
4 Thoughtseize
4 Vampire Hexmage
2 Duress
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Abrupt Decay

4 Brainstorm
4 Crop Rotation
3 Expedition Map
3 Sylvan Scying

Pretty much every single deck that top 8ed in the past few months is playing something that is nearly identical to the above list.

So have we reached a consensus build, or do you guys see any issues with the above build of the deck that is currently dominating mtgtop8?

Your sideboard looks pretty good though.

Best of luck.

[adrieng]

I usually don't have a problem running 1cmc spells with chalice but I've never run 18 1 cmc spells. Are you finding that it's too much?

Also, you used to not like "not of this world", what has changed your mind about including it in the SB?

Chalice was hardly a problem, cause i play the one cc before chalice usually or when I am sure I can make the token. This deck do need chalice it is the best answer against miracle which is now a good matchup.

As for not of this world, there are two differents approch to beat death and taxes one is mass removal the other is to ignore hate thanks to not of this world ; I am on the second right now. Not of this world is good against loam.decks,
death and taxes, maverick cloudpost. I do like them in side.

[caprino]

That main deck looks godawful, play this list instead...



Your sideboard looks pretty good though.

Best of luck.

you like as a list?

[apple713]

Chalice was hardly a problem, cause i play the one cc before chalice usually or when I am sure I can make the token. This deck do need chalice it is the best answer against miracle which is now a good matchup.

As for not of this world, there are two differents approch to beat death and taxes one is mass removal the other is to ignore hate thanks to not of this world ; I am on the second right now. Not of this world is good against loam.decks,
death and taxes, maverick cloudpost. I do like them in side.

I think that i could balance in my list to include some because D&T is harder than i'd like. Pernicious deed hasen't been performing great. Its not good against D&T cause i never get enough lands with thalia out. Im pretty sure deluge is better there. Deed also wrecks my chalices and libraries. It helps against miracles but Between chalice and abrupt decay miracles is easy enough.

Maybe i'll try a few of them.

[caprino]

there is a land that gets things from rapidity? second question in the latest lists do not play more Shizo_ Death's Storehouse why?

[apple713]

there is a land that gets things from rapidity? second question in the latest lists do not play more Shizo_ Death's Storehouse why?

i dont think that there is a land that can give haste that would be viable in this deck. Shizo isn't played because the main problem isn't having the opponent block the creature, its having the opponent remove the token or bounce it. Sejiri steppe is better than shizo.


sejiri steppe
flamekin village
Slayers' Stronghold

[caprino]

there are channels on the internet where you can see recent matches of dark depht?