All B/R update speculation.

[Dice_Box]

One large meta does not equal the entire non recorded meta.

And? Are we to debate over data we just don't have? My Nic Fit dominated local meta is not represented in this data so the data is flawed?

When you go to the doctor does he take all your blood or just a sample and work from that?

[Sidneyious]

And? Are we to debate over data we just don't have? My Nic Fit dominated local meta is not represented in this data so the data is flawed?

When you go to the doctor does he take all your blood or just a sample and work from that?

Apples and oranges.

If sites like mtgtop8 could track every local meta the %# will be extremely different and this conversation won't be happening.

Instead we should be talking about specifically cards that will help shape the meta and not make it crash into a turnpike.

That's why I never look at results anymore because it does not represent the whole of legacy in the world.

[Dice_Box]

If your argument is honesty "We can't get 100% of the data therefore no data has any value" you are a moron.

[Lemnear]

If your argument is honesty "We can't get 100% of the data therefore no data has any value" you are a moron.

[Zombie]

If your argument is honesty "We can't get 100% of the data therefore no data has any value" you are a moron.

Have you read most of his posts?

[Lemnear]

Have you read most of his posts?

What do you mean? The "Gentlemans agreement" part of Miracles being less played in locals but only in big tournaments or the "MTGO data is warping", which is nonsense, because i EXCLUDED those data from the start?

[Stevestamopz]

What y'all have to understand is this.
Thoes are big events, they likely will take the deck that has the best chance for them to top.

Local events are never like this and are never recorded and does not makeup the total share of decks at events.

My legacy night is nothing like anything I see here that y'all complain about.

Many that want bans are people that(99% sure) mtgo all day and with how mtgo is I'm not surprised at all that people play the same deck all the time.

I think legacy is just fine, it's that mtgo has caused a huge problem.

Bigger than when netdecking first started and xerox became a thing.

This potentially is one of the stupidest posts ever on this thread and we have had people talk about Brainstorm being skill intensive as a defence.

There's definitely zero percent chance that some people play for fun at their weeklies and take their good deck to tournaments that they have to pay a heap of money to attend and/or are important events. Definitely not possible that people play Legacy for fun when there's nothing on the line...

[Crimhead]

An 51.67% winrate in the Top8 against D&T, Lands, Infect and Grixis as the other DtBs (in the last months), which we consider more or less bad matchup for Miracles, isn't something you would call busted?

Also good point regarding ~52% win rate IN the top 8 against other tier 1 decks that are meant to be favourable against miracles that have been gunning for it for the past 2+ years

Not exactly. The top8s are not populated exclusively by tier one decks. Going just by mtgtop8, we get these numbers for the last two months:

Grixis - 11%
Eldrazi - 7%
ANT - 5%
S&T - 5%
D&T - 4%
BUG - 7%
Lands - 4%
Infect - 2%

That accounts for 45% of the top8. The numbers might be different depending on your method, but these are probably close. If we consider Miracles to be ~20% (mtgtop8 calls it 17%) that leaves ~35% of top eight spots going to decks that are not tier one or DTB.

This means only ~56% of Miracles' (non-mirror) top8 matches are actually against "other tier one decks that are meant to be favourable against miracles".

Since we seem to agree that Miracles is very god vs tier 1.5, tier 2, and rogue decks, It should follow that if we took those decks out of the equation, Miracles win rate in the top8 would be considerably lower than ~52% - probably lower than 50%.

It seems like Miracles is over preforming early in the events, but much less so when the rogue decks and scrubs have been weeded out. That's assuming the statistics you guys have provided are accurate and representative.

This is an absolute realistic scenario of Miracles not stumbling over random crap or the infamous "Round 1 Kid" in the early rounds due to its balanced construction able to beat Combo AND aggro with the default setup.

On the one hand, it's a little disconcerting to hit a deck with the hammer when it's advantage comes from being very good against bad decks and/or bad players; but is barely favoured (if at all) vs the other half dozen or more tier one decks. I hope people can sympathise with this point, even if it's not enough to sway you.

On the flip side, tier two (or 1.5) decks are important to the meta. It's certainly a good thing if these decks are close enough to the "big boys" that minor meta variations (eg, at the local level) can be enough to make one of these decks favoured under the right conditions. It's also arguably very much a plus if a player can take a < tier-one deck (for budget reasons or for a personal fondness) and still have a reasonable chance to place - especially if they play very well.

The viability of < tier-one decks is a contributing factor to format diversity. One could argue that with a collective 1/3 meta share in the top8s, rogue and tier 1.5-2 decks are sufficiently represented. So the real issue here isn't that Miracles is pushing second tier decks out of the meta, but rather that it has an (unfair?) advantage compared to other tier-one decks on account of having better matches vs those weaker decks!

It's a strange situation. If we are on the same page here, we can at least refute the notion that everybody should be playing Miracles; because that's only true if people are playing tier-two decks. One could instesd argue that everyone should be playing a tier one deck (which is almost self evident), and that if they did Miracles would no longer be the "best deck".

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

On another note, I think the CN2 spoilers should debunk the idea that WotC doesn't care about Legacy. Looks like they want to make some money off it! This makes a ban seems likely, especially given Miracles' dominance online. However, I think they will wait to see how the meta adjusts first. Looking back, this may have been going on for some time now...

Miracles didn't fully developed and thrive until some point in 2014. By late 2014, the format had been turned on its head with delve spells. At this time the best decks were Delver decks (TC era), and then Omnitell (DTT). After the Dig ban, only six months later (barely time for the dust to settle), the format was again turned on its head with Eldrazis. The meta has barely had time to adjust, and we have an incoming boost for D&T.

I can see it could be frustrating to see Miracles reign for so long, but arguably meta shifts are a bad time to ban cards becuase there is never certainty that Miracles will endure the next shake up as successfully as it did the last one. Put another way, Miracles has not dominated a specific meta for longer than a six month stretch.

I'm hoping D&T becomes big enough that we can bury this topic forever. Between D&T and Miracles, maybe the meta will be sufficiently ripe for some decks like Infect or Enchantress to really thrive? I guess we'll have to sit back and watch, because I can't see a ban coming so soon after CN2, especially if they didn't ban anything in July.

Also, the conversation has been both pleasant and "productive" lately. It's easy for perfectly nice people to become impatient or less civil in the impersonal environment that is the internet; myself included. Last couple pages have been really nice.

[Sidneyious]

This potentially is one of the stupidest posts ever on this thread and we have had people talk about Brainstorm being skill intensive as a defence.

There's definitely zero percent chance that some people play for fun at their weeklies and take their good deck to tournaments that they have to pay a heap of money to attend and/or are important events. Definitely not possible that people play Legacy for fun when there's nothing on the line...

My local has prizes, that's worth winning with my good deck.

I don't really build to have "fun".
I'd say my post was the most intellectual post here.
Most posts are whining and crying name calling and general absurdery.

[Dice_Box]

I'd say my post was the most intellectual post here.

I disagree. Your understanding of how a sample works, how stats work and what you can do with them is flawed. Your comment that you do not have 100% of all collectable Data points everywhere means that we can not talk about a large and highly detailed at points sample is foolish at best and stupid at the least. It is akin to claiming that we need to test a shipment of Bananas for disease, but unless we test each individual Banana in the shipment nothing we do is worthwhile. Its just not true. While the data we have is not 100% complete, no one would ever claim it was. But that does not make it useless. Thats why its called a "Sample" and not a "Bible".

But if from your point of view this topic (the numbers) is of no consequence, then fine. If that is your view back out of the thread while people are talking numbers. Because these last two pages have been as close to an agreement two warring factions have come to finding common ground and we do not need someone who has nothing to add getting in the middle of that.

Most posts are whining and crying name calling and general absurdery.

Most of the time it is yes, but these last few pages have been much better. Let the people talk right now. I am hopeful of what may yet come.

[Lemnear]

Not exactly. The top8s are not populated exclusively by tier one decks. Going just by mtgtop8, we get these numbers for the last two months:

Grixis - 11%
Eldrazi - 7%
ANT - 5%
S&T - 5%
D&T - 4%
BUG - 7%
Lands - 4%
Infect - 2%

That accounts for 45% of the top8. The numbers might be different depending on your method, but these are probably close. If we consider Miracles to be ~20% (mtgtop8 calls it 17%) that leaves ~35% of top eight spots going to decks that are not tier one or DTB.

I didn't put it in context with the metagame structure, just tried to make a point in regards to Miracles having obviously a positive percentage not only during the previous rounds (see: the previous discussion about metagame share and top 8 presence), but ALSO within the T8 and against the other DtBs. I might should have done that - Sorry for that.

Its open for interpretation if the data hints at Miracles having a good matchup against other DtBs (the majority?) or not

Edit:

Also, the conversation has been both pleasant and "productive" lately. It's easy for perfectly nice people to become impatient or less civil in the impersonal environment that is the internet; myself included. Last couple pages have been really nice.

This thread just asks for getting out of hand at times. Its just important to leave some fights behind and get a fresh start :)

[menace13]

I'd say my post was the most intellectual post here.

No.

[Scott]

Damn it Sidneyious, you made me agree with arch-douche menace13.

I'd say my post was the most intellectual post here.
Most posts are whining and crying name calling and general absurdery.

[Sidneyious]

If you can not take all the numbers then you can not make a decision on the whole.
By many here's logic if medical field was mtg tournament reports then we should have a cure for the common cold.

[Lemnear]

If you can not take all the numbers then you can not make a decision on the whole.
By many here's logic if medical field was mtg tournament reports then we should have a cure for the common cold.

No one has "all the numbers" like ever. This is a truth not limited to MtG.

[Sidneyious]

Then stop saying miracles is dominant or this is because it's only a thing in mtgo and the occasional big event.

[Jain_Mor]

If you can not take all the numbers then you can not make a decision on the whole.
By many here's logic if medical field was mtg tournament reports then we should have a cure for the common cold.

I mean if you're trying to say we should ban brainstorm because it causes the common cold, then I think we should give you a raise.

@Crimhead, I think that is what people have been generally trying to say. The presence of Miracles greatly narrows the format down. Which in my mind is one of the characteristics / appeals of legacy. It plays fun police far too well against all archetypes and forces the resultant successful decks in its presence to behave in certain ways. I mean it seems clear to me that the format is thoroughly distorted around miracles.

[Lemnear]

Then stop saying miracles is dominant or this is because it's only a thing in mtgo and the occasional big event.

You are free to come up with data to prove TCdecks, MtgTop8, etc and the resulting statistic wrong. I dunno why you keep arguing with MTGO.

[Dice_Box]

Then stop saying miracles is dominant or this is because it's only a thing in mtgo and the occasional big event.

Come up with data that contradicts more than 2 years worth of collection or stop. Do one of those two things. I don't care which but if you want us to stop talking about the data we have, prove it false. Until you do, leave the topic alone. Because you have no idea what your talking about.

Do note, saying "But there is more data out there" does not disprove, undermine, weaken or contradict what we have already. It's not an argument unless you can find large amounts of data we have missed or are intentionally ignoring. If you find this data, I am happy to add it to all future calculations.

[Julian23]

Then stop saying miracles is dominant or this is because it's only a thing in mtgo and the occasional big event.

I think those two are by far the two most important, one might even argue the only important stages. Everything else isn't really important. Something does well in a 30 person tournament? Whatever.