It better involve misplacing a Golgari Thug
Lol
Originally Posted by cavalrywolfpack
If somebody wanted to include an anti leyline package in the sideboard how should it look like in your opinion? You will need an enchantment removal and something to cast it.
Removal: Nature's Claim, Reverent Silence
Mana sources: Bayou, Forest, Elvish Spirit Guide, Land Grant
That's what I can think of. Maybe Reverent Silence is superior because it can handle multiple Leylines in exchange for an additional 2 life compared to Nature's Claim. Forest is wasteland proof while Bayou can also cast Therapy. I was also thinking of 1 Forest/Bayou plus 3 Land Grant to thin the library a bit improving your dredges. Elvish Spirit Guide is also an option but can be discarded if you have to draw into your removal with a Guide on hand. Plus it can be stifled (I think).
What are you guys' opinions? Have you ever tested something like that?
Think for a minute about how many manasources you'd need to reliably cast anything. And then of how good the odds are of you having both that manasource AND that enchantment removal spell in your opening 7. And your opponent not having a counter to answer your removal spell.
Leylines hardly see any play (and at best they have a 40-ish percent chance to have it). Why bother with such a fragile, unreliable answer to a fringe problem?
By the way - ESG can't be Stifled, it's a mana ability.
There is that, and that mostly sums it up.
Also, think that if you manage to hit both manasource and claim/silent, what are the odds you win the game with the double timewalk you just put upon yourself?
While it is doable, especially if your opponent mulled a couple of time to hit it, it is not that much.
If you really need an answer (local meta infested with them, and no other deck available for you), it will depend on which decks are running it.
Here are the pros and cons on each:
- silence: much better if you have to fight a deck featuring daze, and much better at answering multiple leylines too. If the leyline is played in a deck such as lands, playable under Sphere/Thorn.
- claim: answers efficiently grafdigger's cage, one of the most common hate, but also decent vs tormod and/or relic of progenitus.
lands: land grant is terrible, giving away information is bad, even with manaless dredge. Do not do anything in the grave.
fetches with a one off bayou and one-off dryad arbor are not that bad thought. Arbor is still a creature that can hit play very quickly to enable fast CT/DR.
No, the probability is much higher than that. If they run four, it is 86.5%. Far from negligible for a game-ending threat.
Exactly, except if it is a local meta issue, do not bother.
Thanks guys, very helpful comments!
@dte: What's the math behind the 86,5%? Does this include mulligans?
Yes, this include mulligans. Otherwise, classic hypergeometric function.
When you open a 7 without your leyline vs manaless dredge, you know that you have a 77.5 % to find it by mulliganing, and that finding leyline equates win.
So you mull, except if your hand give you more than 80% chances to win.
And you mull into oblivion if necessary, as even if you did not find a leyline in your 7, 6 and 5, you still have a 50% chance winning the game by mulling at four and below. So you do it.
That's why reasoning with a 40% chance of opening with it is wrong. That does not mean that leyline is a good gravehate card: it has this blowout effect almost only against these two very fringe decks that are manaless dredge and the oops all spells that do not run alternate wincon in SB.
Against reanimator or classical dredge it can be a big mistake to mull in this fashion.
And as a result people seem hesitant to do so, even vs. Manaless. If they find another piece of hate in their opening 7 (say Surgical, or something of the sort) they tend to stick with that, rather than mulligan for something better (whether they should or not).
This deck profits a lot from the fact that it's hardly played. People make a lot of mistakes when sideboarding (and just in general). I'm talking CotV on X = 0, boarding out Thorn of Amethyst, electing to start rather than forcing you to start G2, dropping Pithing Needle and naming Dread Return. Seriously, I've seen people do the craziest shit when attempting to deal with Manaless. Mind you, this only goes for opponents that haven't played the MU that much yet. Experienced opponents know how to deal with your shenanigans just fine.
The question "What happens when I Stifle your Phantasmagorian activation?" always cracks me up.
Yes, it is true that people often misplay against us. I played the deck last week, finishing at 5-1, and in two of my wins I saw what my opponent should have been doing and was not doing that could have secure them the win.
But should we count on that? I don't. Maybe we should, as it is one of the deck's strengths, but it seem awkward to me. Maybe you're right and we should.
We shouldn't count on it. It's just fun when it happens and it just happens to happen a lot. Makes for entertaining anecdotes.
It goes on both sides.
- Cabal Therapy targeting you?
- Resolves.
- Leyline of the void.
- You got me!
So I'm thinking about joining the dark side and converting my LED Dredge to Manaless for a couple reasons. For one, it's faster, which is what LED tries to do with Petals against certain matchups anyway. This version of the deck also makes for shorter games, both winning and losing. Lastly, this build is cheaper to build and keep up, which would free up the LED's and sideboard pieces I may need to sell when I'm strapped for cash. Is this an accurate line of thinking?
Pretty much, it's also significantly more resilient to certain categories of graveyard hate like Surgical Extration or Tormod's Crypt that would be a significant impedimet to LED Dredge. The Unmask (or Gitaxian Probe) and Spy lists are really cheap to keep sleaved.
Not completely accurate. LED dredge is much faster, not the opposite. And games tend not to be short, last tournament I took the deck in (last week), I went to time in two rounds out of 6, winning in the additional turns.
Cheaper, however, is true, but not by far. Only FoWs are expensive in manaless, and LED in LEDdredge.
I'm pretty sure our fundamental turn is faster thanks to the combo, LED Dredge can explode out of the gate quicker but it actually takes some time to end the game with just Ichorids and Zombies. I suppose it depends on whether or not you count the turn you combo off or the turn you kill your opponent as the fundametal turn tho', it's kind of the Empty the Warrens argument.
I tend to agree with this. The saturation of creatures in Manaless is superior, and although we aren't as explosive out of the gate because of the lack of LED, LED Dredge tends to have more situations where it flames out when it tries to combo out or has to wait a turn in order to finish the game. Manaless doesn't have that problem as often, typically because it runs four Dread Return and more free creatures - even when you factor in the lack of a turn-one play.
Yes, I consider that when turn one you cast 2 cabal therapies and have a full gy, you won T1, even if it takes four turns before your opponent eventually scoop or is put at 0 lifes. Doesn't it make more sense when you want to compare which deck is the fastest? I mean, you want to be fast because you want to win before your opponent wins or before RiP comes down for instance. Like LEDdredge has a good game racing ANT, manaless less ;) Or LEDdredge can easily beat D&T before they can do anything relevant.
by this definition (which is imo the more relevant one), LEDdredge "kills" quite regularly as often as T1, and regularly T2. manaless is a bit more than a full turn slower, I would say one and a half. Which is logical, as it is more resilient, much harder to stop and/or to slow down.
For EtW, it comes down as how the opponent can interact: if he cannot race gobs but a couple of turns give access to pierce, daze, flusterstorm, fow,... to prevent the storm player to cast EtW, I think it is fair to consider the turn you cast EtW as the kill turn. If your opponent can race or kills gobs, then it makes more sense to consider the one at which you actually win the game (or even better, both).
Last played at the end of May (pg. 21'ish).
Took it out again this past Saturday for a 1k, that ended up being $500 due to a lack of participants (16 heads, top 8 payout, cut to top 4). The room was full of Miracle players (missed them all), a number of Lands (missed) and a few other tier decks (reanimator, etc.), nothing crazier than manaless.
Played nearly the same Horde Moar list, but swapped out the Nature's Claims and Undiscovered Paradise with 4 Contagion.
4 Narcomoeba
4 Street Wraith
2 Bloodghast
4 Golgari Thug
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Dakmor Salvage
4 Nether Shadow
2 Ashen Ghoul
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Ichorid
3 Cabal Therapy
2 Bridge From Below
2 Vengeful Pharaoh
4 Phantasmagorian
4 Prized Amalgam
3 Dread Return
1 Flayer of the Hatebound
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Faithless Looting
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
3 Mindbreak Trap
4 Contagion
TL,DR; finished 7th, was at 5th heading into the last of 4 rounds, record of 2-2.
Rd. 1 G - 12-Post
Playing against my friend, who knew what I was on before the day started. So I was actually excited to win the die roll.
G1
He cast a third turn Propaganda, which limited my beats to a narco hit, and two Ashen Ghoul hits. With the life gain effects though, he was at 23. This was a stalling game. I eventually find the combo and D.R. Flayer, D.R. Troll. I don't take damage in this game, keep his hand small with Therapies.
G2
I'm on the play. I lose to a SnT Emmy. I actually get part of my combo up and ready, but can't live long enough for recursive Flayer beats to get there. He also gets a Bog in, cut off at the knees to race Emmy.
G3
He's on the play. Horde Mode - some good flips, accelerated by a street wraith. Bridge tokens, ickys and narcos.
Rd. 2 Ryan M. - Shardless Bug (eventual #1 spot)
At some point, he judge calls for the reordering of cards going into yard from dredge. This used to phase me, but now it's just a time waster.
G1
He's on the play. I scooped this one, the variance gods were against me. Drew 4 times, no dredgers present. He had an active DRS, a Goyf and an agent (that got him A. Visions). When I called quits, I had 3 g. probes in hand, and drew 2 of them.
G2
He's on the play. Got there the good old fashioned way. Went with a S.W. activation on him trying to eat my troll, and a little more gas with a g.probe activation. I build an army slowly, and when I begin to do math with the Flayer and a board full of tokens and beats he scoops. (Was going to need another turn, couldn't kill him the turn Flayer returned.)
G3
I'm on the play. Welp, gonna get got. I contagioned his DRS, but he had a t3 graf digger cage, and thus, the game. Sided in the LED's and sort.
Rd. 3 David V. - LED Dredge
The perverted mirror'ish match. We're the only two dredge decks in the room, so of course we'd play each other. I win the die roll, he starts.
G1
We trade back and forth a bit, but his dredges aren't super explosive. He drops his hand without burning through his deck, nor finding bridges. I take some beats from a narco, imp and two ickies. On the flip side, a couple points pain from his lands, some return beats from icky, ghoul and shadow- he's almost dead when i D.R. Flayer, triggering Prized and he's dead on end step.
G2
He's on the play. (I forget to tell him this was a mistake at the end of the match.) He gets there by doing what the deck was designed to do. Flips one bridge and a few dredgers, goes hog wild on C. Coliseum, and flips a total of three bridges, and has all of the zombies and beats. I sided in the LED's and Lootings, but don't have them.
G3
He's on the play, mulls to five. Tight race first 3 turns but his flips don't add much. I take minimal hits from a narco, imp and icky. I return with two ickys, two tokens, two shadows. Find the Flayer, which combos with the Amalgams for the eot win. I take the Lootings and LED's back out.
Rd. 4 Ryan G. - Painter
won roll, which is good cause fat fingers flipped something in deck while shuffling. I knew he was on this as I saw earlier, but forgot initially. Not sure if it would've made a difference. This guy also judge called me on reordering the dredged cards. The humor is someone calls him out for being a dredge player in Vintage, le sigh.
G1
He's on the play. He attacked me down to 17 with a imp recruiter and painter servant, then a V. Pharaoh stops his advances. He damages himself with fetches and Ancient Tomb, and I attack him with a narco (stalled shadow) down to 12. He had an ensnaring bridge in play, and 1 card in hand. Eventually lost to the combo.
G2
He's on the play, mulled to 6. My turn 1, eot, he enlightened tutored for a R.I.P. And that's the game. I had a dakmor salvage in hand, and could've hypothetically cast some creatures eventually, but yeah...
So I finished 7/16, and the payout for 5-8 is the entry fee back, $25. I end up spending another $40'ish on a few lands for the sake of it, cause store credit?
I will be modifying the deck from the LED and Looting package to the blue side board. Between this day, and the last time, I didn't once live the dream of the fast LED-Looting start, and losing to hate is blah. Thinking a SB of:
4 Contagion
3 Mindbreak Trap
4 Force of Will
4 Disrupting Shoal
Good times were had, the deck is grindy and combo. Shardless Bug in the hands of a pro like Ryan McKinney was a tall order, got lucky against a poor drawing 12-post, and got unlucky against Painter.
P.S.- Played Team Italia against my buddy with 12-post, and was either dominated, or in slow control. I love that deck, but it's so bad. Where is the Team Italia Siege Rhino?
P.P.S.- Spoke to a Miracles player that has the Whirlpool Rider Manaless list too. Explained the deck to him, the Horde Moar, and he seemed flumoxed. He disliked the -2 Bridge, -1 Therapy, -1 DR. But all the same, I like the Horde version just because it shows depth of construction. There are 3 flavors in my opinion, Spy, Rider/Kelpie, Horde. Let the tinkering and improvements continue.
Last edited by ahg113; 08-30-2016 at 04:13 PM.
@agh: You know what would have been fun vs. Painter..?
Progenitus.
Turns the MU into 95/5 in your favor.
I tend to agree here too. LED-dredge is all about landing a board presence early, and then riding those zombies/Ickys to victory whether they play gravehate or not.
Manaless is a turn or two slower, but has a critical mass feel about it given the bigger threat density.
After years of playing both decks, I feel the difference is all about post-board, as game1 for both decks is similar.
Postboard I feel LED-dredge and Manaless could both be argued as being the stronger or weaker of the two, but it depends greatly on what sort of opponents you may see, and what sort of hate you may expect to see also.
I think it's worth mentioning Terminus, especially if your opponent likes *instant* dropping it off a Top.
Terminus messes with LED dredge, forcing you to play slowly, and Monastery Mentor can really suck sometimes too. Same here with Manaless, but I feel that now we have Prized Amalgam, Terminus is more damaging for the LED-version of the deck.
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