[Discussion] Hulk Flash

[Sims]

I'd never thought I'd say this, but it looks like the only thing can save Legacy right now is Engineered Plague on Clerics.

As far as I know, Plague doesn't disrupt the combo, because the 0/0 Disciples would die as a state-based effect exactly at the same time as the robots, and so they will still trigger for the life loss effect.

I am pretty sure Nihil has it right here.... They all come into play at the same time, due to plague the DotV are 0/0 like the walls and marauders, thus they all die as a state based effect... I may suck at magic (which I do), but I am pretty sure you still get to choose the order in which they enter the graveyard....thus still setting off 7x4 DotV triggers. Plague does not = Hate.

[Rastadon]

I really don't want to see this combo die. The easiest thing would be to errata flash and get the format back to it's healthy self, but I really really like this deck. How awesome is it that people are tweaking out that 0.25 cent junk rare will break the format? But it's too crazy right now. I'd would like to see it weakened to a fair level, making it vulnerable to creature removal would probably be best for it.

edit: yeah, you're right about that

[Cire]

I'd never thought I'd say this, but it looks like the only thing can save Legacy right now is Engineered Plague on Clerics.

And just when you thought you knew the meaning of the word "ridiculous", some idiot at mtgsalvation decides to throw some Gemstone Caverns in there, and reports a 25% chance of going off on turn 0. It's the 2nd decklist on the opening post.

http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=75263

thanks for calling me an idiot.

really its just probability- all you need for a turn 1 win is flash in your hand (46%) gemstone cavern in your hand (46%), Protean hulk in your hand and or / green pact (93%) and ESG and/or SSG and/or green pact in your hand (basicly 100%) and you get 19.7 % of a turn 1 win

throw in some luck and in 20 games i got 5 turn 0 kills, thats 25 %...now im sure that if you play more the percent will be closer to 20% or even less but my estimation wasnt that off - it was basicly close to my testing results

and dont call me an idiot

[Poron]

i bought 3 Flash almost free.. let's hope they're not going to re-errata or ban it...

but probably they will.

[Tacosnape]

Funniest thing ever?

Engineered Plague for Clerics doesn't stop the combo, but Shared Triumph for Constructs or Walls does.

[Poron]

this deck doesn't fear any hate... 4 Chain of Vapor SB, high possibility to close 2nd turn, 8 free counters, 10 tutors..

just broken. and cheap too..

[Anusien]

thanks for calling me an idiot.

really its just probability- all you need for a turn 1 win is flash in your hand (46%) gemstone cavern in your hand (46%), Protean hulk in your hand and or / green pact (93%) and ESG and/or SSG and/or green pact in your hand (basicly 100%) and you get 19.7 % of a turn 1 win

throw in some luck and in 20 games i got 5 turn 0 kills, thats 25 %...now im sure that if you play more the percent will be closer to 20% or even less but my estimation wasnt that off - it was basicly close to my testing results

and dont call me an idiot

Not to derail the thread, but this post demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics. The probability of having at least one Cavern in hand is just less than 40%. This is the same as having the probability of Flash in hand. Now you are calculating the probability of flash and Cavern in hand as P(Flash)*P(Cavern). If A and B were independent (such that P(A|B) = P(A)) this would be true, but they're not. If the first card in your hand is Flash, then only 6 of your cards can be Caverns instead of 7.

Using the following deck:
4 Flash
8 Protean Hulk
4 Gemstone Caverns
8 Elvish Spirit Guide (discounting Pacting for ESG, for the moment)
36 Blank

MWS reports, on 0 mulligans, that the probability of getting a turn 0 kill is 4%. Since mulligans are independent, let's see how high the probability gets if you mull as far down as 5 (the lowest you can get). MWS won't work the later stats out for me, and I'm too lazy to work them out by hand, so I'll be generous and assume 6 card hand produces probability of 4% and same for 5 card hand.

If all of that were true the probability of winning on turn 0 is still less than 12% (.04 + .96*4 + .96^2*.04). And before any flips out, remember that the probability is (probably much) less than that, that the probabilities are the same or better for turn 1 but that you're also assuming no disruption. Are you willing to mulligan down to 5 to try to turn 0? Because if you whiff on the first hand and mull to 6, 96% or more of the time you'll whiff on the second hand, and then you're risking a crappy 5 card hand.

Just trying to get some facts into the discussion, rather than nebulous playtest results.

By the way, I find it amusing that Flash sold it $1, since Ben and Pete knew about the errata before almost anyone else did (I know, since I told them Saturday morning of the Future Sight prerelease), and they chose not to raise the price. It's possible they didn't have time to fully figure out the interactions.

What will this do to the price of blue and green pacts?

[pooispoois]

Independently of whether or not a Turn 0 win is probable, the deck is still ridiculous. We've got a tournament report of a pre-FS version (which is significantly weaker than the post-FS version), and it swept the opposition.

[Anusien]

Independently of whether or not a Turn 0 win is probable, the deck is still ridiculous. We've got a tournament report of a pre-FS version (which is significantly weaker than the post-FS version), and it swept the opposition.

I know, I was judging at that event. To be fair, while there are bad matchups for the deck, he avoided a few of them. Affinity smashed him by virtue of being a good aggro deck that won on Disciple. Other bad matchups in the room included UWR Pyroclasm (I maintain that this is a bad matchup based on the amount of power the deck brings in post-sideboard with things like possibly REB and definitely Meddling Mage) and Iggy Pop. Iggy may or may not be able to go off faster, but Flash is really in trouble to the Mind Twist opening. Also Landstill was probably problematic for the deck, and Thresh and many other similar decks were absent. In other words, it's good, but not OMG WTF BUTTSECKS good.

[Nihil Credo]

May I suggest adding a SB to Hulk Flash? As it is, playing a list without a sideboard would make it an unfair fight against other, tournament-ready decks.

This should make it fairer:

4 Mind Peel (against countermagic)
3 Floral Spuzzem (against Stax)
4 Root Greevil (against Solitary Confinement, Leyline of the Void, etc.)
4 Vodalian War Machine (general purpose utility - you know, those games where "oh, I could win right now, if only I could tap this merfolk!")

[pooispoois]

May I suggest adding a SB to Hulk Flash? As it is, playing a list without a sideboard would make it an unfair fight against other, tournament-ready decks.

This should make it fairer:

4 Mind Peel (against countermagic)
3 Floral Spuzzem (against Stax)
4 Root Greevil (against Solitary Confinement, Leyline of the Void, etc.)
4 Vodalian War Machine (general purpose utility - you know, those games where "oh, I could win right now, if only I could tap this merfolk!")

Floral Spuzzem is clearly unreliable as you never know which artifact he's going to choose.

I know, I was judging at that event. To be fair, while there are bad matchups for the deck, he avoided a few of them. Affinity smashed him by virtue of being a good aggro deck that won on Disciple. Other bad matchups in the room included UWR Pyroclasm (I maintain that this is a bad matchup based on the amount of power the deck brings in post-sideboard with things like possibly REB and definitely Meddling Mage) and Iggy Pop. Iggy may or may not be able to go off faster, but Flash is really in trouble to the Mind Twist opening. Also Landstill was probably problematic for the deck, and Thresh and many other similar decks were absent. In other words, it's good, but not OMG WTF BUTTSECKS good.

Are these your thoughts on the pre-Future Sight version, the post-Future Sight version, or both?

[Anusien]

Are these your thoughts on the pre-Future Sight version, the post-Future Sight version, or both?

The pre-Future Sight version, but many of the comments apply to the post-Future Sight build as well.

[nightshade81]

This is the version of pre-Future Sight that I have had most success at beating thres with.

Land - 11
2 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
2 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
2 Island
2 Tropical Island

Accel - 8
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal

Combo - 18
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Shifting Wall
3 Phyrexian Marauders
4 Flash
3 Protean Hulk

Protection - 10
3 Force of Will
3 Daze
1 Chain of Vapor
3 Xantid Swarm

Tutors - 13
4 Brainstorm
4 Mystical Tutor
4 Worldly Tutor
1 Living Wish

SB
2 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Protean Hulk


EDIT: Edited to update list

[jamest]

I know, I was judging at that event. To be fair, while there are bad matchups for the deck, he avoided a few of them. Affinity smashed him by virtue of being a good aggro deck that won on Disciple. Other bad matchups in the room included UWR Pyroclasm (I maintain that this is a bad matchup based on the amount of power the deck brings in post-sideboard with things like possibly REB and definitely Meddling Mage) and Iggy Pop. Iggy may or may not be able to go off faster, but Flash is really in trouble to the Mind Twist opening. Also Landstill was probably problematic for the deck, and Thresh and many other similar decks were absent. In other words, it's good, but not OMG WTF BUTTSECKS good.

I don't know what qualifilies as OMG WTF BUTTSECKS good (except for Minotaurs), but if they don't ban/errata Flash, I think this archetype will be Tier 1 and the only Tier 1. The power level of the combo has no peer in Legacy and it would only require some time to construct the proper shell. I'm currently using Duress and Cabal Therapy as my disruption. From testing, this has been really tough for any combo or countermagic deck to beat.

[Rastadon]

Cire: I'm not doubting how quick you go off. I just think you're a madman giving turn 0 wins to a deck that was already pumping out consistent turn 1 and 2 wins. The deck was broken enough as it was. Now you can win before the game has even started, literally. This isn't a flame, really. I'm just awed by the seemingly never ending What The Crap moments this deck and its creators provide. Props.

Anuisen: Yeah, but if he really gets a turn 0 win 25%, you can't argue with that. I know it may not make sense mathematically and logically, but if he plays 100 games and gets a turn 0 win 25 times, he's right. There can be a difference between what's mathematically conducted and what actually happens.

[Symbolism]

Anusien:

I played U/W/R Pyroclasm, and beat it with no problem at all (as reported previously in this thread). During playtesting, it was the same thing, over and over. I know you built that deck, but it has a horrible game one against the deck, and a difficult game two, even with Meddling Mage.

Also, in the Affinity match-up, I lost due to inexperience and poor preparation. I didn't mulligan aggressively enough, and I had no answer for his Disciples. It really had nothing to do with the "aggressiveness" of his deck...both games went to at least turn 5, which means I just didn't pull it off fast enough.

Engineered Plague Question:

As ruled at the Trial, it works just like it does if you had Wrath'ed...the Disciples' triggers do go on the stack, once state-based effects are checked, even if they die.

[Nihil Credo]

For the record, the famous judges' words that say that something will happen on May 1st are these (cut and paste from the WotC Legacy board, and what an unspeakable trauma was it to visit those lands of madness and despair):

Those two rulings no longer apply as worded; they were based on errata that has been replaced. Mark Gottlieb, our Rules Manager, has put considerable effort into evaluating old errata and reverting to the original wording of many cards, or original intent with current templating. As a result, the Oracle wording on Flash has been updated more recently than those rulings; the next Gatherer update is scheduled for May 1st, and Sheldon (the Gatherer NetRep) is aware of this not-for-long discrepancy.

So, as I interpret the quote, the only thing that will happen on 5/1 is that the 2004 rulings will be removed from Gatherer; the Oracle wording will not change. That seems consistent with WotC's policy of not issuing power-level errata anymore, so the day to sweat over is probably June 1st, when bannings will be issued, rather than Tuesday.

Edit: xsockmonkeyx, while I was wanking off with this deck on MWSPlay I met a guy who just played you... he was still traumatised. :D

[xsockmonkeyx]

LOL, take that random internet guy.

Actually, this is quite impressive as I havent been on MWS today.

[mikekelley]

I was just curious as to which of you fools bought all these on SCG, haha. I was just going to see that it was in fact a dollar rare, and they are all out of stock on all levels, when I'm pretty sure a week ago that they probably had 20+ of them from both 6th and Mirage.

[Cire]

Cire: I'm not doubting how quick you go off. I just think you're a madman giving turn 0 wins to a deck that was already pumping out consistent turn 1 and 2 wins. The deck was broken enough as it was. Now you can win before the game has even started, literally. This isn't a flame, really. I'm just awed by the seemingly never ending What The Crap moments this deck and its creators provide. Props.

Anuisen: Yeah, but if he really gets a turn 0 win 25%, you can't argue with that. I know it may not make sense mathematically and logically, but if he plays 100 games and gets a turn 0 win 25 times, he's right. There can be a difference between what's mathematically conducted and what actually happens.

lol sorry i took it the wrong way. but ill like to put it out there was that i didnt create the deck only was one of the first posters on ssg and mtg and i dont even think i came up with the caverns tech....its just so crazy lol...sorry that i took offense

Anuisen - sorry i suck at statistics its just that i gold fished alot and either through luck or bad shuffling (pile shuffling) i was abel to get around 20%-25% turn 0 wins.... so i though life supported my bad math....if youll be willing to pm me to teach me real math i would apreciate it, sorry.