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Thread: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out there?

  1. #1

    What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out there?

    If such fakes are out there, they would almost certainly be slowly dripped into the market to not crash prices, while the forgerers simultaneously flood the market with obvious fakes to make people feel more secure about buying the fee cards that do pass the light and dot tests.

    At the end of the day, its just ink printed on paper. The reserve list cards were printed when magic was a small hobby. With how valuable reserve list cards are, it would be worth it for forgerers to obtain or reverse engineer the exact same types of paper and printers used to print the first magic cards. How it could be impossible to reverse engineer printing techniques from the 90s?

    The methods/tests to detect fakes are common knowledge which means that forgerers know what they need to modify in ordet to pass those tests.

    Itís inevitable that with machine learning and other advanced techniques, counterfits that are indistinguishable from genuine cards will arise. They are probably technically feasible even now.

    With singles of power 9 going for tens of thousands of dollars, it is absolutely worth the time and effort it would take for counterfeiters to perfect the process and make counterfeits that pass all the common tests.

    Imo, there is a very high chance that such forgeries already exist, and we have no way to know if they are very slowly dripped into the market to not plummet card prices, while forgerers also flood the market with obvious fakes to make people feel more secure in the cards that pass all the tests.

  2. #2
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    IIRC, the type of printer (and/or paper) used to make the original cards aren't used anymore, so it's kinda hard to replicate it.

  3. #3

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    IIRC, the type of printer (and/or paper) used to make the original cards aren't used anymore, so it's kinda hard to replicate it.
    They would only need to get their hands on a single printer from back then, or even just the blueprints for that printer, in order to be able to easily reverse engineer it. But even barring that, machine learning would let them create a printer that prints in the same manner. Manufacturing the same type of paper would be even easier.

  4. #4

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    I already swapped out my duals for proxies. No one can tell them apart. I can't either, I only know by keeping them separately.

    I currently play "beta duals" in my deck. No one can tell those are fake either, including a handful of judges. They just check for the CE/IE stamp and shrug when it's not there.

    Of course, I only play locally with my friends right now since paper events are gone.

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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Clark Kant View Post
    Manufacturing the same type of paper would be even easier.
    The chemical engineering department where I received my PhD had a paper mill and focus on pulp and paper engineering, and having briefly worked in a paper mill while pursing my degree, easy is not how I would describe the manufacturing process.

  6. #6

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by S1N1STER View Post
    The chemical engineering department where I received my PhD had a paper mill and focus on pulp and paper engineering, and having briefly worked in a paper mill while pursing my degree, easy is not how I would describe the manufacturing process.
    I am not saying that manufacturing paper is easy.

    I am saying that if a company in the 90s was able to mass manufacture a type of paper, a resourceful company with modern techniques could find a way to manufacture that same type of paper.

  7. #7

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    There isn't.
    There is, however, a good test though for people talking out of their ass about it: Just look for the word "loupe" in their answers.

  8. #8

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    I was a commercial graphic artist for almost 25 years. I even sent an application to WOTC...
    The variables to create good fakes are humongous. However, I have the technical understanding to do the pre-press work.
    I even remember the line screen and DPI for ABU cards.
    Getting the paper right, the sheen, the inks, the color, true black (not CMYK) black, etc...

    A long time ago, I had access to a small ABdick press and I surely wanted to try but I never invested the time and energy.
    I've seen good fakes that even passed my loupe test but did not pass other "tests".

  9. #9
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Clark Kant View Post
    Itís inevitable that with machine learning and other advanced techniques ...
    You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.

  10. #10

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.
    This isn't true. Of course you can. These cards weren't given to us wholly formed by God, and whatever techniques were used to create them once can be used to create them again and any differences dismissed as aging.

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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    This isn't true. Of course you can. These cards weren't given to us wholly formed by God, and whatever techniques were used to create them once can be used to create them again and any differences dismissed as aging.
    Your post history has long indicated a need to continually argue, and I'm not going to engage with you on these boards.

  12. #12
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Perhaps coincidentally, there's a similar thread on the mtgfinance subreddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/...that_pass_all/

    It's worth a read and contains many comments that address logistics, practicality, and the physical and technical challenges of forgery.

  13. #13

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    Your post history has long indicated a need to continually argue, and I'm not going to engage with you on these boards.
    Cool?
    But could you edit out the outright falsehoods from your post before you do, thanks.

  14. #14

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    Perhaps coincidentally, there's a similar thread on the mtgfinance subreddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/...that_pass_all/

    It's worth a read and contains many comments that address logistics, practicality, and the physical and technical challenges of forgery.
    Thanks for linking to my reddit post. celticstill_i_last made an excellent post in that thread explaining the process...

    ď You could buy a cheap beat up single color 9810 or 360. Itís just finding ink and stock. There isnít much of a plate issue anymore with the advancement of paper plates. Metal plates are dead, and so are dark rooms. You could 100000% create identical alphas as long as the ink and paper are correct, down to the pica and point(old school printing terms).

    A ab dick 360 or 9810 arenít the price of a Honda, easy to maintain, and fun to use. Itís finding the exact ink and card stock.

    As for the pattern. I think that could be the easiest part. We are talking about single color, overlapping printing. Each plate, for each color. You change the plate, clean the rollers, add new plate, add new ink. Paper plates are so cheap and easy to use, getting the pattern down would take some time yes, but once you have it done, itís just a matter of cleaning rollers and swapping plates. 1 color press, 3 man job. One to watch the feed, one to watch the tray, one to handle cleaning and design and replicate image to plate. We are talking about 30 year old applications with modern techniques. Itís very plausible that within a month of trail and error you could easily manufacture thousands of 1 card. Itís all on card and ink. That will always be the hardest to match. Which is why itís hasnít been accomplished perfectly.

    Edit: to put it bluntly. If I had the perfect matched ink and card stock, a single color press, and the plate maker/printer, within two months of running solo I could have many unl lotuses in the world. Itís not hard to age card stock after printing. Place hundreds of sheets on the floor and drive over them with a forklift and do some sick spins, lmfao. Seriously tho, time, money, and the right tools and itís not challengingĒ

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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    You can't replicate the smell, though. Not going to lie, back when I was doing a lot of business in Beta Power/Duals, etc., I would use my loupe, weigh it, feel it in my fingers, and then give it a good sniff.

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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Clark Kant View Post
    There isnít much of a plate issue anymore with the advancement of paper plates.
    Wait a second... You're telling me my duals are worthless because advances in paper plates?? That's it, I'm suing Dixie!

  17. #17

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Clark Kant View Post
    A ab dick 360 or 9810 arenít the price of a Honda, easy to maintain, and fun to use. Itís finding the exact ink and card stock.

    As for the pattern. I think that could be the easiest part. We are talking about single color, overlapping printing. Each plate, for each color. You change the plate, clean the rollers, add new plate, add new ink. Paper plates are so cheap and easy to use, getting the pattern down would take some time yes, but once you have it done, itís just a matter of cleaning rollers and swapping plates. 1 color press, 3 man job. One to watch the feed, one to watch the tray, one to handle cleaning and design and replicate image to plate. We are talking about 30 year old applications with modern techniques. Itís very plausible that within a month of trail and error you could easily manufacture thousands of 1 card. Itís all on card and ink. That will always be the hardest to match. Which is why itís hasnít been accomplished perfectly.
    1000% this. when I was a commercial graphic artist, I ran an abdick 9810 solo for small print runs. some were CMYK, too.
    after getting all of the above perfect, you'd also want the correct die to cut down all those unlim lotus...

    it can be done but I like this reply below:

    Quote Originally Posted by sdematt View Post
    You can't replicate the smell, though. Not going to lie, back when I was doing a lot of business in Beta Power/Duals, etc., I would use my loupe, weigh it, feel it in my fingers, and then give it a good sniff.

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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Can't beat that late nineties mouthfeel. Takes me back...
    Quote Originally Posted by GreatWhale View Post
    Gross, other formats. I puked in my mouth a little.

  19. #19

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Maybe I just don't get it, but what is the goal of this thread exactly?

    Is it about fakes already out there, printing techniques, or what?

    As for the printing process, you could probably replicate everything if you put enough effort to it.
    That could probably fool most non-invasive/destructive tests.
    The smell comment, as weird as it may be, gives a hint on something you can probably not fake as easily: aging.
    If you put real effort and nerd power to it you could probably find differences due to chemical decomposition.
    The smell might be a bit to high in variance, but somewhere in the spectrum there should be something you can trace chromatographically.


    As for fakes existing, at this point who cares anymore?
    If you're buying reserved list cards in this age you're just asking to be scammed.
    Either you get fakes or you will never be able to sell them because the prices are absurd.

    If Legacy survives as paper format past this pandemic, everyone should be thankful for every player, regardless if they use fakes or not.
    Wotc doesn't give a shit about the format, so who cares?

  20. #20
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    The big mistake WOTC made was making a value statement (Reserved List) about collecting while the cards in question were still being widely used for tournament play. Collector demand, I would presume, is much lower than player demand. So the obvious opportunity for taking advantage of that demand is making fakes to support the player base. If it's just a collectable then they can be scrutinized appropriately by buyers/sellers and fakes are fairly well squashed, especially with the grading services that have popped up for collectables. On the other hand, if there are so many in circulation/demand for actual use, with an 'unregulated' secondary market, the chance for fakes is increased. Until Legacy/Vintage/Commander are no longer played, the Reserved List creates an huge opportunity/risk for fakes. It's the whole 'make something illegal you create a black market' principle, in this case it isn't illegal, but the cards can't be reprinted.
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