[Deck] Non-LED Based Dredge/Ichorid Combo

[YigSnakeDaddy]

Can't talk for andrew, but my Imps don't get the attention they deserve (luckily).
However they hardly get any play time either and go straight to the graveyard due to an early Study and/or Breakthrough.

[jimirynk]

Can't talk for andrew, but my Imps don't get the attention they deserve (luckily).
However they hardly get any play time either and go straight to the graveyard due to an early Study and/or Breakthrough.

?

[YigSnakeDaddy]

What I meant was:
When they get any time playtime, which is not that often, the opponents usually don't waste any removal on Putrid Imps, let alone counter them. Not worthy I guess.
More often than not, I don't even get to play them, since they go straight to the graveyard, due to dregde. Or when I have them on the hand, I usually profit more of discarding them along with Ichorids and Bridges.
It's quite hard to be a second banana Imp, I guess.

[Anusien]

What I meant was:
When they get any time playtime, which is not that often, the opponents usually don't waste any removal on Putrid Imps, let alone counter them. Not worthy I guess.

Must be nice. It's really difficult to have a good hand that doesn't open with either Imp or Tribe.

[YigSnakeDaddy]

True, but when the lucky starthands happen, I mostly have bad luck with the early dredges, no Narcomoebas or additional Bridges. That can be fixed, but still it's a bit disappointing at times.

[frogboy]

running 15 lands is only 2% hire chance of having a land in your opening 7 than 14 lands.

14 has a 2% hire than 13, so don't talk like you run some high number.

It is easier to mulligan to lands then to mulligan to draw.

The point is that you want at least two lands, because then you are resilient to Wasteland, can activate your Coliseum, can cast Thug, etc.

[4eak]

@ jimirynk

You aren't even trying to speak with civility; Your posts look like trolls, bro.

running 15 lands is only 2% hire chance of having a land in your opening 7 than 14 lands.

14 has a 2% hire than 13, so don't talk like you run some high number.

It is easier to mulligan to lands then to mulligan to draw.

2% is an important difference in the long run. A single slot rarely makes a "huge" difference. You really should have compared the single card slot to what it replaced though. Whatever you would use in its place is going to have pretty small value as well. You shouldn't be arguing over the 2%. You should have been arguing over the difference in value of two candidates for the same slot; and that difference in value will likely be an even smaller value contribution than that 2% chance to see land, etc. (the benefits of that land). If you think 2% is too small to consider, then you really are missing the point, because the argument calls for us to consider an even smaller value (the difference between those candidates).

You still need some clarification about the important part of Anusien's argument. Anusien's point is not about 1-land hands in the first place. That mulligan concern is important, but it is not the same as discussing the merit of building some resilience into the mana-base against cards like Wasteland (which is much closer to Anusien's argument).

Instead of inappropriately using information like the "2% increase to open with a land", you should realize the context calls for us to consider the odds of drawing a 2-land hand. There is a ~5% difference. Of course, this isn't just about Wasteland either. Other things are at stake, including CC activations.

Running the right balance of Lands/Dredgers/Draw/Discard is up to play style.

Relativism makes your above argument all the more pointless. If you really believe this, then stop trolling others for their choices. Otherwise, learn to admit that there is only 1 mathematically correct playstyle and 1 correct balance/build per metagame.





peace,
4eak

[YigSnakeDaddy]

I'm kinda worried now about my 12 lands choice.
4eak, since I built upon your original list, are the 2 Paradises really that necessary?

[4eak]

Build your deck with proper ratios of the card functions you require in your opening hands.

What do you require of keepable hands?

With a few exceptions, most hands requires at least 1-dredger to be keepable. You can always DDD from there. I generally throw back DDD hands that don't also have a land + draw spell though.

1x Dredger/Land/Draw or 1x Dredger/Land/Discard are acceptable (without knowledge of my opponent's deck).

Good hands will usually have:
1x Dredger/Land/Discard Outlet/Draw

In my opinion, this tells me that all functions are pretty important, with Dredger and Land being slightly more important to the range of hands which I think are keepable. Further thought would lead us to realize that the 2nd dredger or land in hand is often a good thing as well (we shouldn't see huge diminishing returns).

Build with nearly equal ratios of dredger/land/discard/draw -- and if you are forced to emphasize one or two, then dredger and land merit it the most.

For example, don't run 11 dredgers and 14 of everything else. If you want to make room, then consider going to 13 on everything (including dredgers). We do a similar thing when we are sideboarding out singletons. The proportions are really important to consider.

Beyond ratio though, and moving to the quantity, I'm honestly not sold on your choice to run DR targets in the main. I'd rather have the dredger/land/discard/draw than what you've chosen in their place. I very rarely find I need explosive outs in game 1, I'd rather than inevitability and consistency; medium power gets you there just fine. You won't win big (assuming 15/15 GGT's + zerg team is winning small), but you'll win smaller much more often.

I think LEDless has strong discard options (as many cards play dual-roles and there is always DDD). Draw options are actually the weakest link for the ratio; as 12 is the usual max. I wasn't impressed with Brainstorm as much as the U-Paradise. The CC's of course require a 2-land hand, which only gives us more reason to increase the land count (as it helps maximize CC).




peace,
4eak

[YigSnakeDaddy]

Thanks for the advice.

I've tried a 14/14/20/12 (lands/dredgers/graveyard stuff/draw&discard) ratio and ran some starting hand tests with the deckstats tool.
I must say the start hands are up a notch in quality.

So I put the Paradises back, added 2 Darkblasts, moved Iona and Woodfall to the Sideboard and dropped the Tribes in favor of the keeping the P-Imp at 4.

[Anusien]

How do you ever activate Cephalid Coliseum with only 12 lands?

[jimirynk]

@4eak
I don't take the time to write these long as posts when all you have to do is go back 10+ pages.

It is all there, not much has changed from page 10 to present posts..

[YigSnakeDaddy]

How do you ever activate Cephalid Coliseum with only 12 lands?

Truth be told, hardly ever, as expected.

[Aleksandr]

Trying this one right now:

Qty Name
// Lands
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 City of Brass
4 Undiscovered Paradise
2 Dakmor Salvage (I heard that these are good with Bloodghast.. and I also use them for one "savage" sb tech.)
//\\
// Creatures
4 Narcomoeba
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
2 Golgari Thug (yes, two only - with Salvages and only three Ichorids I think it is enough)
4 Putrid Imp
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
4 Stinkweed Imp
3 Ichorid (I feel its enough)
4 Bloodghast
1 Sphinx of Lost Truths (no other swine.. the list is really tight)
//\\
// Spells
4 Careful Study (I like to have four of them, as they duplicate both draw and discard)
4 Breakthrough
3 Dread Return
3 Cabal Therapy
4 Bridge from Below
1 Deep Analysis (yeah, random... but I like it, because now I can use the spare mana to kick the combo even without Sphinx... and also the Salvages are even more useful.)
//\\
// Sideboard
1 Cabal Therapy (I don't like Unmask, namely because it eats useful black cards and also sb slots: either play four of them - i mean Unmask - or none.)
1 Raven's Crime (dtto, also can be good against control with Salvage, as it is both discard outlet and discard spell; needs more testing.)
1 Ancestor's Chosen
1 Woodfall Primus
1 Sadistic Hypnotist
4 Ancient Grudge
4 Chain of Vapor
2 Firestorm (goblins and Jailers, of course.)

What do you think of it? I just test it on MWS, so these "tests" are not of a great relevance, but I like the list.
I'd like to incorporate third Thug somewhere, but the list is so tight... Right now I am not very sure of the random DA, but as I already stated: I like it how I can combo (or at least try to kick it) another way than by DReturning the Sphinx.
I got problems with proper sideboarding, too, namely because I did not play the deck for ages and the metagame shifted a bit...

EDIT: Is there any chance to get an Ashen Ghoul in the deck? Nostalgia, of course... :-)

[Pltnmngl]

@ 4eak- The last list yo posted had no Unmask in the sideboard. How do you feel about using it against Non-artifact hate?

[4eak]

@ Anusien

How do you ever activate Cephalid Coliseum with only 12 lands?

We need to be fair. It isn't like CC shouldn't see activations at 12 land. There are certainly a bunch of small differences that add up when adding or subtracting land from a deck. 12 isn't insanely worse off than 14 and 15 land (albeit, there is a difference).

% Chance that an opening hand on the play will have a CC and any other blue-producing land (including another CC) by turn 2, assuming we are Dredging on turn 2.

4x CC + 8x Rainbow Land: ~32.9%
4x CC + 9x Rainbow Land: ~34.5%
4x CC + 10x Rainbow Land: ~36.0%
4x CC + 11x Rainbow Land: ~37.4%

% Chance that an opening hand on the draw will have a CC and any other blue-producing land (including another CC) by turn 2.

4x CC + 8x Rainbow Land: ~38.6%
4x CC + 9x Rainbow Land: ~40.0%
4x CC + 10x Rainbow Land: ~41.7%
4x CC + 11x Rainbow Land: ~42.9%

@ Pltnmngl

The last list yo posted had no Unmask in the sideboard. How do you feel about using it against Non-artifact hate?

If I saw more Leyline and Trap, it would have more merit. I don't see a lot of either card, and I consider both to be aimed almost exclusively at Dredge, as they have more conditions to play than Crypt or Relic.

If you see non-artifact hate often, then Unmask seems mediocre. Unmask doesn't answer Leyline directly enough any better than Therapy. It does answer Traps though.

Unmask is an interesting catch-all. Helps give you a shot in hell against Prison and Storm combo. I think the deck has slowed down enough from LED-Dredge that we should be willing to forget those matchups entirely.

I also don't like Unmask on the draw (which is a common game 2).




peace,
4eak

[ZZZ]

I went to the Belgian Legacy Cup last Saturday and wrote a small report although my performance wasn’t that great.

I took the following list:
MD:
4 City of Brass
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Cephalid Coliseum
2 Undiscovered Paradise

4 Putrid Imp
4 Tireless Tribe
4 Golgari Grave troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
3 Golgari Thug
4 Ichorid
4 Bridge from Below
3 Breakthrough
4 Cabal therapy
4 Careful Study
4 Narcomoeba
3 Dread Return
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria

SB:
1 Ancestor’s Chosen
3 Chain of Vapor
3 Unmask
4 Ancient Grudge
2 Wispmare
2 Firestorm

88 Players showed up so we played 7 rounds of swiss before the cut to the top 8.

Round 1 – Wim playing Ugr Dreadstill
The first game I was able to Dread Return an Iona early in the game after Therapy made sure he didn’t have the counter. Iona and Zombies beat him down quickly.
I think I only boarded the 4 Grudge in for 3 Breakthrough and a Dread Return. He gets a relic out quickly but I have the Grudge. He gets some pressure with a Goyf and gets me to 10 but I dredge a lot of Ichorids; Iona joins the party again and finishes the job with some Zombies.
1-0

Round 2 – Benjamin playing Merfolk
Benjamin told me after the match that it was the first time he played against Ichorid and I could tell. The first game he has a vial at one with a Cursecatcher in hand while I have 1 or 2 bridges in the yard. I flashback Therapy and he just reveals his hand. I DR a big Troll, get some Zombies and he scoops ‘m up.
I board the Grudges and Chosen. I keep a slow dredge hand but can’t get much action going. Again he makes a mistake; he plays a standstill (!!!) while he has an Adept and Mutavault down. They beat me down slowly to about 10 life but then I’m able to recur some Ichorids and they quickly take him down to 7 at which point he breaks his own Standstill with a LoA and a Reejerey and beats me down to 2. But then I’m able to DR Iona, get enough Zombies to chump the next turn and then swing for the win.
2-0

Round 3 – David playing ANT
I noticed he was playing against Enchantress in the previous round but I didn’t found out what he was playing. I quickly find out it’s combo when he chants me during my upkeep. I don’t have a very fast hand but neither does he. I beat him down with some Ichorids. When he goes for Ad Nauseam at 8 life; he goes down to 2 but flips insanely good and is able to produce just enough storm for the kill.
3 Unmask and a Chosen come in for an Ichorid, Tribe, Thug and Study. I’m able to Unmask him once but his hand was just too good.
2-1

Round 4 – Peter playing GBW Rock (with MD Elspeth)
Game 1 I can DR Iona on turn 3, put her on white and that’s a win.
I’m not sure how to board but figure he could be playing Leyline, so I go for the Chains. I have a slow hand and he beats me down a bit with a Goyf. I’m able to get back in the match although he’s able to remove all of my Bridges at some point. The match goes back and forth for a long time. He Extirpates my Trolls, kills some Ichorids and Zombies but isn’t able to apply any pressure himself. Eventually he gets Elspeth down and I die with 5 minutes on the clock. He asks if I still want to start the 3rd game which I do. I board out all hate as I will need to kill him quickly. I don’t and we draw.
2-1-1

Round 5 – Tom playing Belcher
Not much to say here. Game 1 he leads with a Taiga, double Rite of Flame, some other stuff and a Belcher. On his second turn he plays a LED with which he activates his Belcher and kills me.
Game 2 he makes 12 Goblin tokens on turn 1; I don’t make any Zombie tokens…
2-2-1

Round 6 – Sabrina playing Landstill.
Game 1 she leads with turn 1 Relic but I’m still able to DR Iona on turn 3.
Game 2 is absolutely ridiculous. She played about 3 Relics and even recurred one with Ruins after I hit it with Grudge, a Ravenous Trap and an Extirpate. Yes, I lost that game although I managed to stay in there for some time, I even got her down to 9 but Elspeth sealed my faith for the second time today.
Game 3 she draws a lot less hate and Zombies, Ichorids and a Troll get me back to a positive result.
3-2-1

Round 7 – Steven playing ANT
I know he always plays either ANT or Landstill. I keep a hand which is great against Landstill; he plays ANT this time.
In come the Unmasks and Chosen again. Game 2 I have to mull to 5 but can lead with Therapy naming Infernal Tutor and I see the following hand: land, double Petal, double Dark Ritual, Double Cabal Ritual. On my next turn I rip an Unmask from the top. But I make a mistake in my following plays; Unmask grabs a Cabal Ritual, Therapy the 2 Dark Rituals. On my 3rd turn I can flashback a Therapy but I name Petal (while I should have named Cabal Ritual). He reveals his hand with the 2 Petals but I also see he topdecked a Mystical Tutor. He tutors up Ad Nauseam and plays it on his turn with the Cabal Ritual. He has no mana floating and only 2 storm but still has a land drop and 20 life so I lose this one as well.
3-3-1

Despite the result I was very happy with my deck. The 3 losses all were against one of our thoughest matchups (combo). Iona is simply amazing. I recurred her a couple of times when FKZ or Hypnotist just wouldn’t have cut it because I had no Bridges in the yard. The fact that she doesn’t change anything to what’s already on the board is almost always irrelevant because she’s just almost always the biggest creature on the board. Just name the opposing colour of removal and you normally win.
I still think Unmask is the best SB-option we have for the combo matchup but if they have a good hand, we need to have the perfect hand to win (a very fast hand with a lot of disruption).
Conclusion: the deck is solid but my choice for playing it in this tournament wasn’t (1/3 of the meta was combo).

[Anusien]

% Chance that an opening hand on the play will have a CC and any other blue-producing land (including another CC) by turn 2, assuming we are Dredging on turn 2.

4x CC + 8x Rainbow Land: ~32.9%
4x CC + 9x Rainbow Land: ~34.5%
4x CC + 10x Rainbow Land: ~36.0%
4x CC + 11x Rainbow Land: ~37.4%

% Chance that an opening hand on the draw will have a CC and any other blue-producing land (including another CC) by turn 2.

4x CC + 8x Rainbow Land: ~38.6%
4x CC + 9x Rainbow Land: ~40.0%
4x CC + 10x Rainbow Land: ~41.7%
4x CC + 11x Rainbow Land: ~42.9%

How did you calculate these? I think you're way off.

By the way, is a 5% chance not worth it?

Edit: I retaught myself combinatorial statistics. The actual numbers on the play are these, carried out to 10 decimal places:
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 8 rainbow land: 0.2437398895
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 9 rainbow land: 0.2625688815
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 10 rainbow land: 0.2794610723
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 11 rainbow land: 0.2945792789v

The actual numbers on the draw are these, carried out to 10 decimal places:
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 8 rainbow land: 0.2981831464
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 9 rainbow land: 0.3188519380
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 10 rainbow land: 0.3369709649
4 Cephalid Coliseum, 11 rainbow land: 0.3528079984

Using the following formula:
#Combinations=COMBIN(DeckSize;HandSize)
P(No Cephalid Coliseum) = COMBIN((DeckSize-#CC);HandSize)/#Combinations
P(No Rainbow Land) = COMBIN((DeckSize-#land);HandSize)/#Combinations
P(No Coliseum and No Rainbow Land) = COMBIN((DeckSize-(#CC+#land))/#Combinations
P(No Coliseum or No Rainbow Land) = P(No CC) + P(No land) - P(No CC and no Land)
Total probability = 1-P(No CC or No Land)

[sunshine]

How did you calculate these? I think you're way off.

By the way, is a 5% chance not worth it?

Let's see.

Assumptions:
- 60 card deck
- 7 card opener
- 12 land build
- 3 cards in our opener are determined (dredger, outlet, and CC)
- - there's some subtlety glazed over in that last assumption since we should really require that we have the correct land to play our outlet, but we'll overlook that detail for simplicity.

So we have 4 cards left to work with, one of which needs to be a land. The probability that none of those is a land is ~41.4%(57 cards left, 46 of which are non-land) so the probably that we get at least one other land is ~58.6%.

That's quite a bit higher, but I may be making simpler assumptions that 4eak did.

[Anusien]

Let's see.

Assumptions:
- 60 card deck
- 7 card opener
- 12 land build
- 3 cards in our opener are determined (dredger, outlet, and CC)
- - there's some subtlety in that last assumption since we should really require that we have the correct land to play our outlet, but we'll overlook that detail for simplicity.

So we have 4 cards left to work with, one of which needs to be a land. The probability that none of those is a land is ~41.4%(57 cards left, 46 of which are non-land) so the probably that we get at least one other land is ~58.6%.

That's quite a bit higher, but I may be making simpler assumptions that 4eak did.

That's a completely lost cause, because you're taking for granted having those cards in the first place.

However, since I had the spreadsheet already:
With 4 CC, 11 land, 11 dredgers, 16 outlets, the probability of having at least 1 Cephalid Coliseum, 1 rainbow land, 1 dredger, 1 outlet: 17.11% on the play and 24.10% on the draw.

With 4 CC, 8 land, 11 dredgers, 16 outlets, the probability of having at least 1 Cephalid Coliseum, 1 rainbow land, 1 dredger, 1 outlet: 13.84% on the play and 20.00% on the draw.