[Deck] Goblins

[Dice_Box]

You can add Tin street to the topic as well. If you want to run Tin then the mana reduction that Warchief provides may hurt Tins ability and stop him from doing his job.

If your running Prospector, warchief really does a number on your board position. Dropping him turn two is nuts.

[kombatkiwi]

I've always found no-Warchief builds really odd
Typically the lists I run are along the lines of

25 Core (-1 Siege Gang)
4 AEther Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Siege-Gang Commander

12 Other Goblins
1 Krenko
1 Sharpshooter
1 Prospector
1 Stingscourger
3 MWM
4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Chieftain

23 Lands (4 Port 4 Waste 4 Cavern 11 Mountains)

Reasons for liking Warchief more than Chieftain is essentially that having more Goblins on the board is usually more effective than having less Goblins with a Glorious Anthem, for example:

-Being able to play Krenko and activate it a turn earlier is better than having a slower Krenko making 2/2s. Say you have 2 other 1/1 Goblins (MWM) and you Krenko once. Now you have 5 1/1s + Krenko. Next turn you do it again. Now you have 11 1/1s + Krenko. If you just played your Krenko a turn later then you activate it with your 2 1/1s then you have your 5 2/2s + Krenko which is the same total amount of power but with Warchief you could've been doing other things with your open mana and generally more creatures > bigger creatures in terms of chump blocking and Piledriver attacks and stuff. (In both of these situations I apparently don't have an actual either Warchief or Chieftain on the board but just deal with it, I'm sure you get what I'm trying to say).

-With Chieftain you can play MWM + Piledriver off of 2 open mana and attack for 7 immediately and then 7 again next turn - with a Chieftain this takes you 2 more mana and on the same turn you've only done 10 damage instead of 14.

-If you really have to make clutch matron plays like Stingscourger their guy or get prospector to save yourself from Jitte or whatever this is much better with Warchief for obvious reasons. Same deal when you're in the mid-late game and trying to burn through Ringleaders.

-Gempalm would rather you had more goblins in play than fewer goblins with a higher P/T

-You can lackey in a Warchief and have it do something relevant in your second mainphase, Chieftain does not do this.

As a previous poster has mentioned if you're running a deck with Warren Instigator and probably fewer ports and more red sources to support it then I could understand playing fewer Warchiefs and more Chieftains, because obviously Warchief doesn't work with instigator and you're also cutting MWM (probably) in order to fit the WIs in. (MWM and other 1R cards are amazing with Warchief because halving the cost of spells has so much more of an impact than just reducing it by 1/3 or 1/4). The +1/+1 also is stronger when you have goblins with double strike in your deck, and you aren't having your mana tied up on port activations as much so the cost reduction wouldn't be a necessity in as many situations.

I haven't actually played any builds with WI in them, but I don't like the sound of the above thing because without having the Ruby Medallion effect available you seem so much more reliant on WI/Lackey triggers in order to get your goblins into play, and I would rather not build the deck in such a way that it makes your weakness to spot removal/early blockers even worse.

If you want to play a bunch of Chieftains I don't think there's anything necessarily bad about that but you should be cutting into your count of Piledrivers (because they share a similar purpose of making big combats happen) and flex slots rather than your 4 Warchiefs, and you should probably be playing some number of WI to go with it.

[lost_ronin_soul]

I am trying to brew a non-tradition goblin list.

4 cavern of souls
14 mountain
3 mutavault

4x goblin chieftain
4x goblin guide (with 8 lords and meta morph he gets big real quick and slams down with vial on one or turn one)
4x goblin king
4x goblin lackey
4x goblin ringleader
4x goblin warchief
4x warren instigator
3x krenko
4x phyrexian metamorph (for help with show and tell, jitte killer, awesome goblin clone, and other unique interactions)
4x seige gang commander

4xaether vial
----
sideboard
3xcursed totem
3chalice of the void
3x null rod ( can hinder lion's eye diamond, lotus petals, jitte, batterskull's other abilities, helm of obedience, affinity)
3xthorn of amethyst
3xtormods crypt

I used to play traditional vial goblins back in 2006. They deck was stolen but it was complete and I have had expierence playing it and i am familiar with piledriver, matrons, and land denial. I want to try to brew up a non traditional goblin list that is not on the beaten path. This list currently lacks tutoring for answers since it does not play matron. it can turn three kill but its not like the tradional lackey into warchief into piledrivers. The list lacks removal since I am finding it hard to find room without lowering the threat density. It would be nice to find room for tarfire to remove creatures out of lackey's way but I'm not sure if thats the way i wanna go or if i sould just build up a massive army and over run them. Pernious deeds is a real card and yes my goblins can come back from it I want to try to make a off the beaten path for goblins to work. I know vial goblins are excellent with wasteland and rishidan port, I am just curious on your thoughts of phyrexian metamorph, and a red deck wins style of play. This isnt a finished product, but it runs ok, it probably needs a bit more adjusting but so far it runs explosively.

[Hof]

Refreshing.

I am working on a somewhat similar approach: Less removal, more goblins, no mana denial, much more power. So far my test results have been nothing but positive.
My list is different from yours, but the strategy is the same. And it isn't really a "Vial Goblins" deck anymore.

I am wondering if it would be correct to create a new thread in the development forum and leave this thread for discussion of the classical vial goblins list that stalls the game with mana denial, MWM, and removal, until vial, warchief, and ringleaders take over the game?

[GoboLord]

@ the Warchief/Chieftain discussion: suggested reading

I am wondering if it would be correct to create a new thread in the development forum[...]?

Yes, it would be and I realy wonder why no such threat exists. You guys aren't the first to discuss this approach here (although Hof is the 1st one to recognize that such an approach is strictly different from VIal Goblins, which speaks for his understanding of the deck).

This guy said he would start that kind of threat. WOnder if he did so? Otherwise you could PM him and start such a threat in collaboration?

[Julian23]

4x phyrexian metamorph (for help with show and tell, jitte killer, awesome goblin clone, and other unique interactions)

Note that putting Phyrexian Metamorph into play via Show and Tell will most likely fail. You will need to Vial it in _after_ Show and Tell has put Griselbrand into play...at which point you're opponent will already have been able to draw cards. Even on day2 at a GP, way too many people don't seem to know that.

[lost_ronin_soul]

Note that putting Phyrexian Metamorph into play via Show and Tell will most likely fail. You will need to Vial it in _after_ Show and Tell has put Griselbrand into play...at which point you're opponent will already have been able to draw cards. Even on day2 at a GP, way too many people don't seem to know that.

If they play show and tell and you show and tell metamorph into play, mtamorph will come into play as a copy of a creature. It will copy they're creature the sneak into play(unless they drop omniscience). Unlike angel of despair it will kill it immediately due to the legend rule and metamorph static effect ability, without using the stack. This denies them the ability to respond if it is griselbrand It kills emrakul to. Vialing in metamorph is a bad idea and defeats the tech purpose of the card. If you suspect they run omniscience you need to drop in a guy with a etb trigger like ringleader or matron and then you can get a shot to kill the enchantment(krosans grip, naturalise, beast from within, red elemental blast) before they regain priority to play a sorcery or creature spell . Unfortunately with meta morph you lose that option so its either worry about creatures or enchantment. Angel of despair hits all show and tell targets but they have a chance to respond with griselbrand (but will probably fail to find anything useful) metamorph is at least cast able and can do thin,s .like clone a ring leader, or a goblin chieftain so its not dead in the combo match up....and if you are hard up for life you can cast it of cavern of souls for four mana.

[Dice_Box]

I really think that Confusion in the ranks is our best SnT hate. (Hurry up and arrive posted playset.... Grr)

The reason for this is that you can hit with some degree of accuracy the 3 main things you will see from a SnT.

1) A critter.
Mine, thanks.

2) Sneek attack.
Here, have Confusion in the ranks. I don't need it anymore.

3) Omniscience.
As above.

[GoboLord]

If they play show and tell and you show and tell metamorph into play, mtamorph will come into play as a copy of a creature. It will copy they're creature the sneak into play

from magiccards.info

6/1/2011: If Phyrexian Metamorph somehow enters the battlefield at the same time as another permanent (due to Mass Polymorph or Liliana Vess's third ability, for example), Phyrexian Metamorph can't become a copy of that permanent. You may only choose a permanent that's already on the battlefield.

Julian23 is right there.

[Dice_Box]

Quick question. I have this as a theodical mana base. My only real question: Drop another port and add another mountain or leave as is? I do not want to drop the white lands as there is a good amount of white cards in the sideboard, (7 for this build.) and 3 main.

4 Cavern of Souls
3 Rishadan Port
1 Karakas
4 Wasteland
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Plateau
1 Taiga
2 Mountain

[goblinsplayer]

Quick question. I have this as a theodical mana base. My only real question: Drop another port and add another mountain or leave as is? I do not want to drop the white lands as there is a good amount of white cards in the sideboard, (7 for this build.) and 3 main.

4 Cavern of Souls
3 Rishadan Port
1 Karakas
4 Wasteland
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Plateau
1 Taiga
2 Mountain

I think i'd cut a karakas and just add mounatin or a fetchland

[GoboLord]

Quick question. I have this as a theodical mana base. My only real question: Drop another port and add another mountain or leave as is? I do not want to drop the white lands as there is a good amount of white cards in the sideboard, (7 for this build.) and 3 main.

4 Cavern of Souls
3 Rishadan Port
1 Karakas
4 Wasteland
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Plateau
1 Taiga
2 Mountain

Really depends n your MD + SB. Can you post it please?
I wouldn't run 2 Ports, because at that point they are not doing what they are supposed to do. With Ports I think it's the mass that counts. So, either drop Ports altogether, or maybe cut a fetchland.

Also, I'm just finished with the second part of my analysis, which also deals with the issue of color splashes and Ports. You might be interested to read the related article as soon as it's finished (which is, as I assume, tomorrow).

[magicmerl]

Quick question. I have this as a theodical mana base. My only real question: Drop another port and add another mountain or leave as is? I do not want to drop the white lands as there is a good amount of white cards in the sideboard, (7 for this build.) and 3 main.

4 Cavern of Souls
3 Rishadan Port
1 Karakas
4 Wasteland
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Plateau
1 Taiga
2 Mountain

That manabase looks fine to me. You have a 6/5 ratio of fetchlands to targets, which I think is good. And with 9 white sources you are cheating ever so slightly on the mana to cast RIP, but I can live with that. I think that's the perfect manabase for for a Rwg deck with 23 land. If you wanted 24 I'd add the 7th fetch or the 4th port. Karakas could be the 4th Port (or a Pendelhaven), I'm still tossing up on what I want really.

I don't see what the issue is with Esper. It's a 50/50 matchup in my opinion and gets slightly better postboard imo. The only reason I'm giving them 50/50 is if they get batterskull/jitte online early, we don't draw a cavern, no matron/ringleader into tuktuk/tsh, etc...I feel like a lot has to go wrong for us to get crushed by Esper. Most games are a grind in my experience, but I always feel like I have inevitability against them if my ringleaders pop off. Elves I fell is a little in their favor but in general you want to take their dudes off the board early and often so they can't ramp and NO. I never feel like I have to aggressively mull against either of these decks.

Yeah, I feel that we are favoured vs Esper as well. I don't struggle vs it much, although I agree that it's one of the more interactive matchups we have. Stingscourger is 'mr disinfectant' vs germs. And chaining Ringleaders just feels dirty vs them since they are another fair deck.

I just find it hard at times for Goblin players to get a good game when we want Aether Vial, Rishadan, Wasteland to Lackey and Spot Removal. I usually have a hard time in drawing the right cards *sigh*. Especially Elf decks and Esper decks...(I mully until I can at least get a Chalice or Pyrokinesis for them.)

I don't understand needing to draw spot removal. Why do we need to do this? I'm happy to accept a bad matchup G1 vs Elves (although if they stumble then Matron->Sharpshooter gives us the win). But that's what my SB is for. CotV and Pyrokinesis slow them down enormously.

And vs Esper, I don't really understand why you guys have such a hard time in the matchup. I feel that the matchup hinges around their equipment's combat triggers, and if you can successfully defend against them, then we have a better and more consistent deck, with a better card drawing engine. Perhaps this matchup is one that should be discussed in more detail? In a 'one game' type scenario?

[Dice_Box]

I do not want to put Karakas as it is useful as both a land and a counter to some painful things that are dropped. If I have to cut something tho, this is the weakest link at the moment.

I would like to read the could splash update. The trick with Vial and tapping it in responce to its own trigger I only noticed the other day from your writing. I am interested to see what else you see that I don't ever seem to notice.


Ok so this is the decklist. I am still trying to tweak it and see what I can come up with.

4 Goblin Lackey
1 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Piledriver
2 Mogg War Marshal
1 Stingscourger
1 Tin Street Hooligan
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Matron
3 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
1 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Æther Vial
4 Cavern of Souls
3 Rishadan Port
1 Karakas
4 Wasteland
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Plateau
1 Taiga
2 Mountain

//Sideboard
SB: 2 Krosan Grip
SB: 4 Oblivion Ring
SB: 3 Pyrokinesis
SB: 3 Chalice of the Void
SB: 3 Rest in Peace


I want to give O ring a go while I wait on confusion, Confusion is in the post but doing some reading I did see some good arguments on which of the two was more versatile. I want to test them both in my local meta and make up my own mind.

RIP is a test card too. I want to see if it works better for me. I know others have come to their own personal views on some cards, I respect that and I am more than happy to hear their viewpoints, but I will try anything at least once.

Views? Thoughts?

Edit:
@Merl:
Did some testing with Pendelhaven on Cockatice. Can't fetch it and its ability is not all that great over all. Its weakness to Wasteland and the fact that it is often a poor top deck has lead me to really think its more DOA than worth playing. Also I might test a 24 land build but if I found something to cut I think I would rather put Sharpshooter back in somewhere.

[magicmerl]

Your list is very similar to my own (so it's unsurprising that I like it).

Some points of difference:

1. I like the 4th Gempalm and Sharpshooter, I guess I'm running them over MWM in yoru list. I really want to run MWM, but can't find the room for it.

2. I think that the 4th Warchief is better than the 1st Chieftain, even if one time in four you want a chieftain, that's still doing it wrong.

3. I'm ambivalent on Krenko vs the 2nd SGC. I do not encounter many situations where Krenko is better than SGC, and I know which one I want to lackey in.

4. Ditto with Karakas vs 4th Port. I don't know which is right.

5. I think you only want 3 O-Ring at most, since it's the least targetted of all of your SB cards. I think you will get much better value running the 4th GY hate card, particularly since in the matches where you need GY hate, you *really* need it. Assuming you're prepared to mull to 4 for it, running 4 RIP will 'get there' 79% of the time, while 3RIP will show up 69% of the time.

@Merl:
Did some testing with Pendelhaven on Cockatice. Can't fetch it and its ability is not all that great over all. Its weakness to Wasteland and the fact that it is often a poor top deck has lead me to really think its more DOA than worth playing. Also I might test a 24 land build but if I found something to cut I think I would rather put Sharpshooter back in somewhere.

Thanks. That was my guess as well, but I just saw a 'free' way to play something that could buff Lackey past a DRS or Stoneforge (which other people are reporting trouble against), since I don't like to run burn spells that don't also draw me cards.

[Dice_Box]

1.
I really don't want to cut the MWM. Fact is if I could run four I would. Try them mate, they are great.

2.
Most likely. An answer to Engineered Plague to me is worth the cut.

3.
I am mostly the same. The second SGC slot changes from week to week. Have run everything from Krenko to Kiki in it. SGC as well.

4.
Might be a "Romantic" play, but having Karakas as a possible main deck answer to SnT and a bounce for whatever we have thats a legendary, its a thought. Is it worth cutting port for it tho, still unsure.

5.
Will change that around. Thanks.

[magicmerl]

1. I really don't want to cut the MWM. Fact is if I could run four I would. Try them mate, they are great.
Yeah, I will have to find room somewhere.

2. Most likely. An answer to Engineered Plague to me is worth the cut.
Here was my results vs Engineered plague in my most recent tournament:
a. Lose to double-Plague
b. Win while Port strands Plague in their hand
c. Win while Port strands Plague in their hand
d. Win with Warchief/Piledriver through Plague
So from my perspective Chieftain isn't actually that much of a help vs Engineered Plague. I mean, it's no Show and Tell or Dark Ritual

3. I am mostly the same. The second SGC slot changes from week to week. Have run everything from Krenko to Kiki in it. SGC as well.

4. Might be a "Romantic" play, but having Karakas as a possible main deck answer to SnT and a bounce for whatever we have thats a legendary, its a thought. Is it worth cutting port for it tho, still unsure.
The last time I played Karakas, I had one opponent who got Griselbrand into play T2 EVERY SINGLE GAME. Happily, I had a T1 and T2 Karakas in two of those games, because otherwise I would have been demolished. I love Karakas.

5. Will change that around. Thanks.

Comments in bold.

[GoboLord]

Comments in bold.

@ Dice_Box
I also don't think that 1 singleton Chieftain will help you much against E.Plague. Especially when you are running a Rwg list you have TONS of answers to E.Plagues (Seal of Cleansing, Wear//Tear, Ray of Revelation, Celestial Purge), you shouldn't bother yourself with making changes to your MD to adapt to a card that isn't frequently played at all.

[Pee-Dee-2]

Yesterday I went to our monthly Legacytournament and played with this list:

//Lands
3 Mountain
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Karakas
2 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland
4 Cavern of Souls
1 Plateau
2 Volcanic Island

//Noncreatues
4 Aether Vial

//Goblins
4 Lackey, Matron, Warchief, Ringleader, Mogg War Marshal
3 Piledriver, Incinerator
2 Stingscourger
1 Siege-Gang, Lightning Crafter, Sharpshooter, Prospector, Chieftain, Sparksmith

//Sideboard
3 Spell Pierce
3 Flusterstorm
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Celestial Purge
1 Boartusk Liege
1 Legion Loyalist
3 Pyrokinesis

I went 4-1-1 with a lost against Goblins and an ID against Zombardment and became 4th. My opponents and results:

1. 2:0 against Goblins
2. 2:0 against Affinity
3. 1:2 against Goblins
4. 2:0 against UW Dreadnought
5. 2:1 against MBC
6. ID against Zombardment

I played against nothing like BUG, Jund oder Sneakshow but yesterday I needed every SB-card during the tournament (I boarded blue against UW). In the mirror I bring in Loyalist, Pyrokinesis and Purge and won it in round one without any Matron or Ringleader!

Questions?

[GoboLord]

ID against Zombardment and became 4th.

Drawing after only 5 rounds of Magic? And even worse: drawing against Zombardement? You are getting old, Pascal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@ ALL: Here's the article, as promised.

Hey there fellow Warchiefs.
Last month I presented a summary of some data that I collected (click here for reference). I went on collecting data because I was a little disappointed that some important question could not be answered because of lack of data. Today I’m presenting you an analysis on a larger dataset, which might solve some, but not all of the questions raised last time:
Here is what I wanted to find out this time (all questions relate to Vial Goblin decklist in Legacy, in case this isn’t obvious):

(1) Do splash color(s) affect the overall performance?
(2) Which number of lands-total is most related to success?
(3) What is the “correct” number of Rishadan Ports?
(4) Are lists with Mogg War Marshal strictly better than lists with Warren Instigator?
(5) Piledriver an indicator of success? (is it true that: the more PD the better the performance?)
(6) The more MWM, the better the performance?
(7) The more cmc2 spells the better?
(8) Do Goblin Sharpshooter and Skirk Porspector affect performance?
(9) How does the total number of non-Goblin cards in a decklist relate to success?

Quite a bunch of problems to solve, eh? Luckily I did find answers to most of the questions! Here are the facts:

I analyzed 272 matches of 45 different decklists. Again, most of the decklists were winning decklists which reflects a certain report-bias for good results. So, the overall performance of this particular set of decklists was quite good to begin with. That means: if I’m stating that a certain card “does not positivey affect the performance of the decklists” then that actually means the card in question is frequently found in winning decklists and doesn’t make the performance better than “above average”. The average performance of the whole dataset is expressed in a Win-% of 62.85

(1) Do splash color(s) affect the overall performance?
Short answer: No. Overall mono-red decklists were just as successful as multicolored ones.

(2) Which number of lands-total is most related to success?
Decklists with 22 Lands were most successful and slightly above average(65.05% Wins), while other lists’ success ranged from 53.00% to 62.07%

(3) What is the “correct” number of Rishadan Ports?
This question can’t be easily answered. Read more about that in the latter part of this article!

(4) Are lists with Mogg War Marshal strictly better than lists with Warren Instigator?
Short answer: No. However, don’t jump to the conclusion that it wouldn’t matter whether you run MWM or Winstigator. Further analysis revealed that it’s a matter of configuration of the whole decklist.

(5) Piledriver an indicator of success? (is it true that: the more PD the better the performance?)
Short answer: No. However, don’t jump to the conclusion that the number of Piledriver doesn’t matter! Further analysis revealed that it’s a matter of configuration of the whole decklist.

(6) The more MWM, the better the performance?
Yes, that is true for decklists that do NOT run Warren Instigator. That is, if you decide not to run a Winstitigator decklist, you should run as many MWMs as possible.

(7) The more cmc2 spells the better?
This analysis was the most fruitful of them all. I will discuss the results of this analysis in detail later on. For now let’s just leave it at the conclusion that ”No, there is no linear relation between the number of cmc2 spells and performance. Read the latter part of the article for a detailed explanation.”

(8) Do Goblin Sharpshooter and Skirk Porspector affect performance?
Yes, they do. Lists with Sharpshooter performed slightly above average (63.84%), while lists without him did worse than average (60.84%). The same pattern was found for Skirk Prospector: 1 Skirk Prospector resulted in 63.95% wins; Prospector-less lists win 60.79% of their games.

(9) How does the total number of non-Goblin cards in a decklist relate to success?
This question can’t be answered easily. Read the discussion below to get a better impression of this relationship.

Some of these results really surprised me, so I further explored the dataset to see if I could see a pattern in it (I want to spare you with the details. Let’s just say that I did a bunch of analyses to actually reveal a certain pattern at the end). After looking more closely at the data I found that one variable seemed to be most defining for success, namely “the number of cmc2 spells”. The pattern I found was such that decklists with either 10, 13 or 14 cards with converted manacost of 2 (a sum of: Piledriver, WInstigator, MWM, Gempalm Incinerator, Stingscourger, Tin Street Hooligan) were more successful than those with either 11 or 12 cmc2-cards (decklists with 4-9 cards with cmc2 were excluded from analysis due to lack of data). Here’s an overview of the respective WIN-%s:

10 cmc2 cards: 67.47% (30 records)
11 cmc2 cards: 60.24% (46 records)
12 cmc2 cards: 56.87% (70 records)
13 cmc2 cards: 67.21% (43 records)
14 cmc2 cards: 69.95% (38 records)

As you can clearly see, the decklist with 10, 13 and 14 sms2-spells score quite some points above the average of 62.85, while the other two score below it. And now comes the interesting part! The analysis revealed that most of the decklist with 10 cmc-2 spells are very similar to each other, not only in their cardchoices, but also in the NUMBERs of the keycards they run. E.g. Almost all lists with only 10 cmc2 spells were Winstigator-lists, and not only that, most of them (90%) were mono-Red. The same is true for the “13-“ and the “14-category”. The decklists seem to agree not in particular on the number of cmc2-spells, but rather on many cardchoices throughout the deck, which, by incidence, result in a certain number of cmc-2 spells. That is, they did not, in advance, decide that “I’m gonna have precisely 13 cmc2-spells in my deck, let’s look what they will be.”, but the other way round: “I’m gonna design my deck in such a way…Oh, this results in having 13 cmc2-spells. I wonder if that number matters at all…”.
Interestingly it was not only the case that I had found 3 distinct, successful decklists. It was also the case that those 2 other categories (the “11” and “12”) had similar features too. So what I’m now presenting to you are 4 stereotype decklists, 3 of which are successful and 1 of which is awful, so to say. It’s no surprise that you might recognize those…


STEREOTYPE #1: The Winstigator list (the 10-cmc2-lists)
Features:
* WIN-%: 67.47
* most lists of this data-subset had 3 to 4 Warren Instigators
* 90% were Mono-R
* 75% did not run MWM
* most lists had only 2 Piledrivers
* higher average number of Stingscourgers and Chieftains

Stereotype decklist
Mana (22)
4 Cavern of Souls, 4 Wasteland,
2 Rishadan Port
10 Mountain
2 Chrome Mox

CMC2 (10)
2 Goblin Piledriver
3 Warren Instigator
3 Gempalm Incinerator
2 Stingscourger

Rest 38
4 Aether Vial, 4 Goblin Lackey, 4 Goblin Matron, 4 Goblin Ringleader
3 Goblin Warchief,
3 Goblin Chieftain
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
2 Siege-Gang Commander
2 Others

The first list is a classic Winstigator decklist. I averaged the number of the most frequent cardchoices to get the picture of the decklist you can see above. Note, that this is not necessarily the best decklist, and not even how I would build it. The decklist above reflects the average (the “stereotype”) decklist of the successful “10 CMCM2 spells-category” that has proven to be successful according to the data. It’s important to remember that I asked the question “How does this mysterious 10 cmc2 data subset look like?” and not “What does the average Winstigator list look like?”.


STEREOTYPE #2: 13 CMC2 spells – The classic Vial Goblin deck
Features:
* WIN-%: 67.21
* no list of this subset had fewer than 3 Piledrivers
* majority had 3 or 4 Rishadan Port
* 70% had 4 Gempalm Incinerator
* no single list had Thalia or Karakas
* 90% of the lists had only 4 non-Goblin spells (namely Aether Vial)

Stereotype decklist
Mana (22)
4 Cavern of Souls, 4 Wasteland,
3 Rishadan Port
5 Fetchland
1 Taiga
5 Mountain

CMC2 (13)
4 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Stingscourger
1 Tin Street Hooligan

Rest 38
4 Aether Vial, 4 Goblin Lackey, 4 Goblin Matron, 4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Goblin Warchief,
1 Goblin Chieftain
0-1 Krenko, Mob Boss
1-2 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Skirk Prospector
1 Goblin Sharpshooter

This decklist might be familiar to you, and it should be. This list is basically the one that B-rad, Max Tietze and Jim Davis are playing again and again and for probably eternity. Note that in this data-subset, about 40% of the decklists were mono-Red, while making nearly the same cardchoices (Tuktuk Scrapper instead of TSH, 1 more Rishadan Port instead of the Dualland and 5 Basic Mountains instead of 5 Fetchlands). However, the picture remains the same: the analysis of the “13 CMC2 spells”-data-subset spit out this averaged decklist, with very straight-forward cardchoices, such as a maximum number of manadenial, Piledriver, MWM and Gempalm Incinerators, with the classic triumvirate of Sharpshooter, Skirk Prospector and a Shatter-Goblin.


STEREOTYPE #3: 14 CMC2 spells – The multicolored Thalia-build
Features:
* WIN-%: 69.95
* 100% of the decklists in this category were multicolored
* 75% of the decklists played Thalia and Karakas
* 2-4 Piledrivers
* 3-4 MWM
* 85% had both Sharpshooter
* 100% had 1 Skirk Prospector
* 100% had 4 Goblin Warchiefs
* 100% played without Goblin Chieftain

Stereotype decklist
Mana (22)
4 Cavern of Souls, 4 Wasteland
6 Fetchland
3 Duallands
1 Karakas
4 Mountain

CMC2 (14)
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Stingscourger
1 Tin Street Hooligan

Rest (38)
4 Aether Vial, 4 Goblin Lackey, 4 Goblin Matron, 4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Goblin Warchief,
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
1 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Skirk Prospector
1 Goblin Sharpshooter

This decklists seems like a configuration of the CLASSIC decklist, since a majority of cardchoices are overlapping. However, by having played both versions I know that the most defining features are different: The THALIA decklist does usually not play Rishadan Ports at all (or at least very few of them) and basically trades 3 slots of Piledrivers and Goblin Chieftains for 3 Thalias. Another defining feature is the heavy dedication to splash colors. To open up more effective SB choices. In comparison of CLASSIC vs. THALIA decklists you could say that the first is more straightforward in its cardchoices, while the second has a bigger accent on non-Goblin cards to improve the deck (Thalia, SB-cards).


STEREOTYPE #4: 12 and 13 CMC2 spells – The “awful” list?
Features:
* WIN-%: 60.24 and 56.87
* 2 Rishadan Port
* some play Karakas, even without Thalia
* many Fetch- and Duallands, although most decklists were monoR
* only few lists with 4 Piledrivers
* many lists without Sharpshooter and Skirk Prospector
* some lists with WInstigator, but without Chrome Mox


Stereotype decklist
Mana (22-24)
4 Cavern of Souls, 4 Wasteland
2 Rishadan Port
6-7 Fetchland
2 Duallands
0-1 Karakas
3-5 Mountain

CMC2 (12 or 13)
1-3 Goblin Piledriver
2-3 Mogg War Marshal
3-4 Gempalm Incinerator
1-2 Stingscourger
0 or 3 Thalia

Rest (38)
4 Aether Vial, 4 Goblin Lackey, 4 Goblin Matron, 4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Goblin Warchief,
0-2 Goblin Chieftain
0-1 Krenko, Mob Boss
0-2 Siege-Gang Commander

As you might have noticed it is really hard to provide a clear picture of this category, which is mostly because the data isn’t clear there. My interpretation would be that this category’s most defining feature is that it doesn’t make any dedications at all. It isn’t maxing out anything, neither Piledrivers, nor MWMs, nor Manadenial, nor number of basiclands. This category appears to squeeze everything into one decklist, that has proven to be successful elsewhere. On thinking about that magicmerl’s spaghetti-sauces parable came into my mind: you have 3 excellent spaghetti sauces, packed in 3 different glasses. Every sauce tastes wonderful on its own. However, if you open the glasses and mix the sauces up into 1 sauce, it will taste like regular spiced ketchup, maybe even worse.

Lessons learned
* to my surprise there are 3, not 2 different types of successful Goblin decklists
* I want to suggest a terminology for them: either (1) Winstigator, (2) Classic and (3) Thalia or (1) Type 1, (2) Type 2 and (3) Type 3.
* Goblin Sharpshooter and Skirk Prospector make the difference, albeit a small one
* extremes pay off, which is evident in the dedicating choices of the 3 successful decklists
* do not forget that those decklists are stereotypes and that they will always need one or two tweaks to make them fit the local metagame
* Playing good and smart Magic is more important than having a decklist that is 100% “correct”. This last point is not a result of my today’s analysis, but rather a reminder for people like me that tend to lose themselves in the idea that there is a perfect decklist and forget about the beauty of the GAME you are playing. There is more to Magic than only deck building.

I hope you liked my article. Comments are, as always, appreciated.

Cheers,

GL