Quote Originally Posted by icedagger View Post
Hi everyone,

I recently found myself in this situation and was hoping somebody could help me with figuring out the probabilities:

I am down to 4 life. Opponent will attack for lethal next turn.
Past in Flames resolved and exiled.
My opponent and I are hellbent.
I have one blue mana floating. No other untapped sources of mana.
In my graveyard, I have one of each cantrip (gitaxian probe, ponder, preordain, and brainstorm), two dark rituals, two LEDs and several fetchlands. No tutors or other business spells.
Opponent has no meaningful interaction left.
I have made my land drop for the turn.

I realized that the only way for me to win was to find a lotus petal and Tendrils with my probe along with one of my other cantrips. Given that I have no knowledge of what's on top of my library, what sequence of cantrips will give me the highest chance of finding the cards that I need to win?
There is the the obvious GP, Ponder, which allows you to see the most cards. Card quality/quantity might make it tempting to save the GP so you can maybe draw the best 2 but LED for UUU allows you use all your cantrips plus others you might find. I'd GP, Ponder.