Quote Originally Posted by Crimhead View Post
You would bet that Legacy cease to "go on" within just 2 years? That's wholly alarmist, I think.
Yikes, that was backwards. Meant Legacy first, then neither. Sorry.

My point was more about Arena, though, and to me it is still very much in show-me mode. As Barook said, the one thing that makes Magic unique is a robust in-person play experience, and almost everything they have done with the brand besides that has not "stuck." Even for all its faults, MTGO has been around for so long that it is practically entrenched in its market. But its initial competitors weren't the kinds of games that Arena is trying to compete with. Arena's competitors have an early-mover advantage; it would be like trying to go up against MTG with a paper card game now. The bet is that MTG's name recognition attached with a more Hearthstone-like play experience will create a hit. But, Hearthstone already exists.

I understand the anxiety and unease around Arena as it relates to entrenched players, but worrying about its impact right now isn't necessary, in my opinion. The biggest fear should be them unplugging MTGO but I think they would be incredibly stupid to do that, as it would be nothing but bad press and would alienate a large base of customers who they need to move on to the next thing in order for it to be anything remotely resembling a success.

You could make the case that four bannings in Standard in 13 months may lead Wizards to the conclusion that supporting a paper game with the effects set in ink is just not a tenable business strategy anymore, and it's just easier to go all digital and errata cards remotely. The money they would lose from no longer selling cards would be made up in lower operating costs, etc. But that's a fundamental re-working of their business model and there are a TON of other people who are affected by that -- not the least the network of game stores. There's going to be a long transition time between MTGO/the paper game and Arena, if there even is a transition, and hopefully they are not too stupid and myopic as to just bet on all new customers. Abruptly pulling support for MTGO and paper, and/or going away from their most popular format by far in Modern, would be a massive strategic error.