[Primer/Deck] Pox

[tescrin]

With regards to whiffing on Inquisition to the point that it matters[...]

What on earth are you arguing here? My argument applies just as much to Thoughtseize as a IoK.

As far as Hymn to Tourach, in the discussion of discard, those thinking it's played to "hit" cards are misunderstanding it's purpose. [...]
The whole reason it's played is because it's card advantage.

Yes. And if you whiff with a 1-mana spell you just accrued needless card disadvantage.

So as I stated before, in a vacuum, which means for those uncertain: without concern for countermagic or the opponent playing Nephilim Tribal or some bullshit; you will have a more educated choice by playing the Hymn first, thereby selecting the best choice of a smaller pool of options with the targeted discard. You will better guide the play of your opponent to an end which benefits you the most. Playing Hymn second, all you achieve is a hedged bet.

:/
Let me put up some examples of where you are right and wrong.

Proof 1:
Imagine the opponent has 3 cards, 1 land.
Thoughtseize into hymn? You hit all three.
Hymn into thoughtseize? 33% Chance to whiff.


Proof 2:
Imagine the opponent has 4 cards, 1 non-land
Thoughtseize into hymn? You hit the card and you hit 2 lands.
Hymn into thoughtseize? 50% Chance to whiff.



Now, the counter examples (including my now corrected post before) have to do with requiring yourself to hit X cards in Y cards to win. This is because the ratio of positive hits to negative hits changes in a bad way if you TS first.

Counter 2:
Need to hit a specific 2 in 6:
Hymn First: 60% success
TS first: 40% success


So I will amend my statement:
If going for raw card advantage (fair decks most of the time) you want to Hymn Second.
If playing against Combo, you want to Hymn First.


EDIT: This was edited several times as a few of the maths were incorrect, things were rephrased accordingly.