[Deck] Belcher

[b4r0n]

It really depends. Because let's assume that the opponent has played 3 accelerants, so he has three mana in his mana pool, and is obv. holding one kill condition, so that he has 3 unknown cards in hand. Then, he plays a 1-mana accelerator.

If you counter, you basically lose. Because your opponent has, a hypothetical 11 win cons, 4 street Wraith, and 45 acceleration, so that there's little to no chance that he's holding at least two more win conditions, which is what you would need to have your counter be effectful. Otherwise, he ramps up to that 4 mana through your counters and plays what he was gonna play anyway. 8/11 of the time. Or, he could cast Burning Wish, and find something good anyway.

Not really. If you counter the accelerant, he has 2 mana in his pool and 3 cards in hand. To win from this situation, he needs those 3 cards to consist of 2 accelerants and EtW. If those are the cards he has in hand, he wins regardless of which spell you counter. But if he only has 1 accelerant, he fizzles. Or, if has a Wish or a Belcher instead of EtW, he fizzles for the turn. By countering that accelerant, you have the greatest chance of stopping the combo.

So, the only time it's right to counter going above four mana is when it's with a Seething Song

As described above, this isn't true (unless you have an answer to EtW).

[Ozymandias]

THe thing is, the chance of his two remaining cards being accelerants is actually (40/50)^2=64%, and the chance of his kill being ETW is 27%.

So 36% of the time, countering the 1-mana accel wins, and 64% of the time, it loses. Granted, he might not have enough mana to Wish and Warrens, but just letting him get EtW in his hand is bad. Even so, if he has the wish and you say it doesn't win. the percentages go to 64% lose to 40% lose.

Now, compare that to not countering the accelerant. This play wins 73% of the time and loses 27% of the time. Therefore, it's better to not counter a 1-mana accelerant that would push them to four. However, you should counter 2-and-3-drop accelerants, since those make him lose if they fail.

[b4r0n]

THe thing is, the chance of his two remaining cards being accelerants is actually (40/50)^2=64%, and the chance of his kill being ETW is 27%.

So 36% of the time, countering the 1-mana accel wins, and 64% of the time, it loses. Granted, he might not have enough mana to Wish and Warrens, but just letting him get EtW in his hand is bad. Even so, if he has the wish and you say it doesn't win. the percentages go to 64% lose to 40% lose.

Now, compare that to not countering the accelerant. This play wins 73% of the time and loses 27% of the time. Therefore, it's better to not counter a 1-mana accelerant that would push them to four. However, you should counter 2-and-3-drop accelerants, since those make him lose if they fail.

How are you coming up with these numbers?

This still doesn't seem right to me. By countering that accelerant and leaving the Belcher player with 2 mana in pool, 3 cards in hand, they have the following outs:

• accelerant, accelerant, EtW (your counter was irrelevant anyways)

• accelerant (or LED), LED, Wish (requiring 2 specific 4-ofs, plus an accelerant... aka a pretty slim chance)

• accelerant, accelerant, Belcher (they can drop a Belcher but won't be able to kill you this turn... in this case, yes, it would have been a wiser play to save the counterspell for the Belcher)

In any other case, they fizzle. Am I missing something?

Additionally, keep in mind that we've only been discussing a hand of 7. For each mulligan the Belcher player takes, they have drastically fewer outs, so countering that accelerant becomes better and better.

[m03]

THe thing is, the chance of his two remaining cards being accelerants is actually (40/50)^2=64%, and the chance of his kill being ETW is 27%.

But what are the chances of them being usable accelerants for the situation? If it's a LED and a Dark Ritual, for instance, it could be a couple of turns before they draw into anything allowing them to be useful. In the mean time, the control player is drawing into more counters.

[Ozymandias]

Take a theoretical decklist with 11 kill conditions, 4 Street Wraith, and 45 mana spells. So, given that there is at least 1 kill condition in their hand, and 4 accelerants, what could the other cards be?

The first one has a 41/51 chance of being a mana source(41 sources and 10 kill cons left in the effectively 51-card deck). If the first once is a mana source, the second one then has a 40/50 chance of being a mana source. So, the chance of them being both sources is (41/51)*(40/50)=about 64% for them both to be mana sources. I took the fact that there's no real instawin from burning wish into account, and multiplied by 7/11 Win conditions for the one in hand, thereby coming up with 40% for the insta loss chance from countering.

Also, for any give situation, the first accelerant I would play would be LED. You lose the least from an opponent's FoW.

Also, bear in mind that if a Belcher player storms off for something like 8 goblin tokens, holding something back to rebuild off of, countering the main copy of EtW gives you a whole extra turn to find something

[Pulp_Fiction]

Also more numbers to keep in mind, your opponent is only going to have Force of Will in their opening hand 40ish% of the time. And while we are comparing numbers lets also assume the control player takes mulligans as well, possibly mulling (down to 5 at lowest) trying to find Force of Will or Stifle, then we need to take into consideration the amount of time they give the Belcher player to rebuild after mulling into their necessary counter/control cards.

[syssc9]

I don't mean to be a downer or anything, but calculating all these simple percentages may not be the most accurate representation of what this deck does/is doing in any given situation. I think we need someone with more than passing acquaintance with hard-core statistical analysis to help us. Unfortunately, that ain't me. I am no longer in school, nor do I currently have access to such a person, but if one of us is taking a course in statistics, it is often possible to get help from the teacher/professor and get some extra credit at the same time (not to mention brownie points.) Not bad for working on a Magic deck. Getting a real expert involved may yield some real gold, especially for a deck like this. Anyone who has ever been involved, even if only peripherally, with statistics can tell you, it is far from obvious or intuitive. Hey, you might even suck the Prof into our game!

[ratzes]

Isn't Richard Garfield a phd in combinatorics, maybe we can talk to him lol.

We don't need a phd in stats to calculate all of these probabilities... its just glorified counting. The problem is in deciding on a deck to analyze. Get together a base deck, and we can start filling out all of the probabilities.

[ratzes]

Oh, if you meant probabilites taking into consideration what your opponent does, you are looking at something with the complexities of chess and go, but on an even greater level.

The best way to figure that sort of stuff out is play testing, combinatorics isn't going to help there.

[chocomel]

Hey guys,
I started tweaking belcher a few weeks ago, because i wanted to add dark rituals...
When manamorphose was printed, i first got the idea because splashing for an other color would be a lot easier.
So i removed the inverior rituals and added dark rituals and cabal rituals.
To support cabal rituals I also added 4 street wraith's in addition to the mana morphoses, so getting ******** never has been easier before!
With the "new" rituals the deck was faster than before and it could storm a lot easier, so replaced the EtW with tendrills but didn't like the mainboard storm stuff like Ill-gotten gains, tendrills, etw, etc..
So I decided to move all of it to the sideboard, after all it was a belcher deck, so the main win should be belcher.
While adding infernal tutor's to replace EtW I kept the same possibilities to get some business at hands..


Here's the list:

// Lands
1 [B] Bayou
1 [B] Taiga

// Creatures
3 [GP] Wild Cantor
4 [PLC] Simian Spirit Guide
4 [FUT] Street Wraith

// Spells
4 [US] Dark Ritual
3 [DIS] Infernal Tutor
4 [MR] Goblin Charbelcher
4 [TE] Lotus Petal
4 [MI] Lion's Eye Diamond
3 [JU] Burning Wish
4 [TO] Cabal Ritual
4 [CS] Rite of Flame
4 [MM] Land Grant
4 [MR] Chrome Mox
4 [SHM] Manamorphose
1 [MR] Seething Song
4 [CHK] Desperate Ritual

// Sideboard
SB: 1 [DIS] Infernal Tutor
SB: 1 [US] Ill-Gotten Gains
SB: 1 [TSP] Empty the Warrens
SB: 1 [SC] Tendrils of Agony
SB: 1 [MI] Infernal Contract
SB: 1 [AL] Diminishing Returns

Short card explinations:
2 lands, sometimes you need red, sometimes black to power up the eninge, so playing only with 1 land isn't a possibility, i think...

Wild Cantor, mana fix, storm

Simian Spirit Guide, fuel, imprint target, start-up

Streetwraith, cabal ritual fuel, imprint target, deck thinning

Dark ritual, best ritual ever printed

Rite of Flame, second best ritual printed

Cabal Ritual / Desperate Ritual, not that good ritual but they are needed, cabal ritual slightly better than desperate in this deck...

Land Grant, free storm, and land is good

Chrome Mox, startup, free storm.

Manamorphose, the best filler card ever printed, mana fix, free storm, and instant card draw, all for the relative cost of 0.

Seething Song, well this one kind of sucks, you almost can't keep a hand with 2 of these, and 3 mana is a lot tho get the party started, so that's why I only play 1 and I didn't know what else to put in it's place..



Infernal Tutor/Burning Wish, utilty, storm, kill searcher.

Goblin Charbelcher, well the deck is named after it, so it should have at least 1 belcher in it, don't you think?

Lotus Petal/Lion's Eye Diamond , mana fix, fuel, etc

So that's it, a belcher deck that can easilly storm for 10 and killing with a tendrills with the right hand and a improved chance to win t1 and 2 by using a belcher..

Comment is welcome :)

[GGoober]

I've always thought that black is a good addition due to Dark Ritual, Infernal Tutor for your win condition or Burning Wish then win. 3 color Belcher is a little strained for the 1st two turns without a land grant, or if it gets FOWed. You would then have to rely on either manamorphose or Wild Cantor/LED to effectively cast off a ritual (not possible with LED since you'd lose your ritual). Perhaps tweaking with the list to make black as consistent a source as red and green would make this new list strong. The heart of Belcher is still in RG though,but I personally like a black splash for Infernal Tutor, IGG. Hell, in the Fetchlands Tendrils, Doomsday is the big addition that wins if left uncountered. But this deck can't really support Doomsday since there's no way to protect the combo (FT has Chants to resolve their combo safely). Belcher is more focused on the fast explosive wins, and the right bluffs and right timings when casting off your accelerants, comboing off.

[m03]

But this deck can't really support Doomsday since there's no way to protect the combo (FT has Chants to resolve their combo safely).

Besides the fact that Charbelcher and EtW don't work well with an empty library.

[Mental]

I've always thought that black is a good addition due to Dark Ritual, Infernal Tutor for your win condition or Burning Wish then win. 3 color Belcher is a little strained for the 1st two turns without a land grant, or if it gets FOWed. You would then have to rely on either manamorphose or Wild Cantor/LED to effectively cast off a ritual (not possible with LED since you'd lose your ritual). Perhaps tweaking with the list to make black as consistent a source as red and green would make this new list strong. The heart of Belcher is still in RG though,but I personally like a black splash for Infernal Tutor, IGG. Hell, in the Fetchlands Tendrils, Doomsday is the big addition that wins if left uncountered. But this deck can't really support Doomsday since there's no way to protect the combo (FT has Chants to resolve their combo safely). Belcher is more focused on the fast explosive wins, and the right bluffs and right timings when casting off your accelerants, comboing off.

What's all the hype about Doomsday suddenly? Since FT started running it, it's like the new "thing" to put in combo decks. Really, the card is mediocore at best, slightly better than IGG with set up/in certain MUs, and definitely isn't worth running in any combo deck but FT.

For what it's worth, I think black is unnecessary in Belcher. Doesn't RG Belcher have a critical mass of mana acceleration in any event? And has room for some REBs? Seems like playing Black is unnecessary, especially if you need to play crap like Wild Cantor. Infernal Tutor could be nice, but seriously, in MUs where it won't get FoWd, you win anyways.

[syssc9]

I agree that 3 colors is a strain on Belcher. I mentioned in an earlier post dropping black and going to R/G for the improved consistency. Well, when you look at it, green is splashed only for Tinder Wall. At least it is the only card I actually need green to cast in my deck. IMO it is just as legitimate to drop green altogether (I know, some of you are already screaming, “Heresy!”) and going exclusively to the black splash. This gives access not only to Dark Ritual, but To Tendrils of Agony and various tutors and recursion affects.

Down with Taiga! Up with Badlands! Viva la Revolucion!

[sunshine]

the problem with dropping green completely is not just losing tinder wall but also land grant as well as the effectiveness of elvish spirit guide. you’re giving up eight free mana sources and not picking any up. go ahead and test a list without green but I suspect you will not be too happy with the consistency.

[syssc9]

Land Grant is always cast for free. Always. Who, when playing this deck, would spend 2 to get one? Not I. Elvish Spirit guide still produces mana, albeit now it only qualifies as generic. I probably shouldn't hold my breath for Phyrexian Spirit Guide, but since I put Cantor back in the deck and am also running Manamorphose, I am having no more consistency problems running Black than I was running Green. I have done considerable testing with this new configuration (and am now sleeping on the couch, instead of in bed with my wife, see my previous post *Ninja Edit - couple of posts back) but as yet have no competitive experience with the new configuration. Perhaps you should also do some testing, you might like it ;-). Either way it's a Red Deck with a one color minor splash, either b or g.

[sunshine]

obviously my point - it's a free accelerant. and if you cut green and only run badlands you wont have any forests to get with it... even if you cast it for free ;)

[syssc9]

Oops! As my youngest daughter would say, "Well, duh, Dad!" Can I use 'senior moment' as an excuse? I did turn 60 this year...
(Where is that damn drawing board, anyhow?)

@ sunshine
OK, now that it's been a couple weeks, I gotta tell ya...
You should have seen me, diligently testing, goldfishing away and pulling that Badland out with the Land Grant, over and over, just as happy as if I had good sense. Boy, it was working great! I must have forgotten to pay the premium on my moron insurance that month.

[Michael Keller]

I agree that 3 colors is a strain on Belcher. I mentioned in an earlier post dropping black and going to R/G for the improved consistency. Well, when you look at it, green is splashed only for Tinder Wall. At least it is the only card I actually need green to cast in my deck. IMO it is just as legitimate to drop green altogether (I know, some of you are already screaming, “Heresy!”) and going exclusively to the black splash. This gives access not only to Dark Ritual, but To Tendrils of Agony and various tutors and recursion affects.

Down with Taiga! Up with Badlands! Viva la Revolucion!

Cutting green out of Belcher is terrible. Land Grant and Tinder Wall are critical mana producers that start your acceleration and improve your win ratio. Dark Ritual should be played anyways with green and red. You have Lotus Petals and Wild Cantors/Manamorphose to produce black. It was never a problem for me.

[StarkTheBloody]

Dark Ritual should be played anyways with green and red. You have Lotus Petals and Wild Cantors/Manamorphose to produce black. It was never a problem for me.

QFT. I can probably count on one hand the amount of times I've been unable to cast Dark Ritual.