Most common cards at GP Chicago Day 2

[AngryTroll]

...
I think there would be an extremely trace number of decks splashing any extra colors for any cards other than Tarmogoyf (which I expect a lot of people would splash for).

...

Those data could be coupled with, "What percentage of Tarmogoyf decks have less than 8 green cards?" and "What percentage of decks with any green but fewer than 8 green spells have Tarmogoyf?"

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

[ScatmanX]

Yet, I´d like to see the statisc he proposed, onde Goyf see a "little" bit more play than Plowshers...

[Volt]

You didn't do or say anything wrong, GreenOne. Carry on.

[Volt]

Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?"

And the answer is often "No."

Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

And the answer is always "Yes."

There were 8 Swords to Plowshares in the GP Chicago Top 8. There were 24 Tarmogoyfs.

[AngryTroll]

A startling confirmation that threats are better than answers. That's no surprise to anyone.

[Forbiddian]

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

That's exactly the point of also doing Swords to Plowshares. Of course I don't know how the numbers will turn out. That's the whole point of it being evidence and that erases all chance that it'll be a "biased" statistic. I just have a hypothesis, which we can test by looking at data. I'd be happy to look through, but I didn't parse the data (I assume GreenOne does or has too much time on his hands).

If Tarmogoyf numbers dwarf Swords numbers, it's really strong evidence that Tgoyf is commonly splashed and is becoming ridiculous, since Swords is probably the second most-splashed-for card. If Swords numbers are comparable, then I'm wrong in my hypothesis and I learned something from it.


And I would find data that, say, 50% (or some other high value similar to Tarmogoyf's) of decks with fewer than 8 White Cards ran StoP anyway *extremely* convincing that Swords is too powerful/easily splashable.

I don't think those data exist, but I guess we'll find out.

I think that maybe, "Of decks running Swords to Plowshares, N% run fewer than 8 white cards" and "Of decks running Tarmogoyf, N% run fewer than 8 green cards" might have somewhat similar values of N, since Swords is often very commonly splashed and there's not a ton of other good white cards.

But that's not the main line of thinking from the data parse. And if you can't figure out how those are questions are worlds apart, PM me and I'll try to explain it to you, but I don't want to clog up the thread with more explanations.

[AngryTroll]

Thanks again, GreenOne, good work so far; no complaints here. Nightmare's right, but you presented the relevant data.

Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90

Swords to Plowshares
Number of decks playing it: 34
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 + 1x1 = 132
Average per deck playing it: 3,88
Average per deck: 1

Sure, about twice as many Goyfs as Swords. More people played Goyfs than Counterbalances, too, because:

A startling confirmation that threats are better than answers. That's no surprise to anyone.

Sure, Goyf is a lot more...something...than Swords; I'm not arguing that Swords should be banned or unbanned or isn't fun or whatever. I'm just saying that people splashing a weaker color for one card isn't new.

[AngryTroll]

.

[quicksilver]

Do they have all the deck lists by chance? I would love to see cards ratio's between day 1 and day 2. Like day one 10% of the decks were playing extirpate and day 2 2% were. Could help show what cards do not pull their weight and are overrated and also which cards do pull their weight and are actually good.

[Forbiddian]

Yeah, I was looking all over for those and couldn't find them. :-(.

[Volt]

I'm just saying that people splashing a weaker color for one card isn't new.

Obvious is obvious. Thx.

[FoolofaTook]

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

Vindicate is just a little bit less good than Swords to Plowshares and then only because it dictates a second color in your scheme and comes down a bit later in the game state. For that significant handicap you also get to remove permanents other than creatures also.

Oblivion Ring may actually be better than either of them because it also allows you to remove any permanent from play however it doesn't require a black splash in the deck and is therefore a slightly more reliable solution than Vindicate.

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

[AngryTroll]

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

...

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

Oooh, is that how it works. I am, in fact, familiar with the card. I was just pointing out that just because decks splash a color for one card doesn't mean that card is overpowered (see, for example, Swords).

When Archetypes splash an aggro creature because it is too good not to run, then there may be a problem (See, for example, Landstill, ITF).

[Volt]

I was just pointing out that just because decks splash a color for one card doesn't mean that card is overpowered (see, for example, Swords)

That's debatable. Everything is relative. Swords is the best analogy you can come up with, but we've already established that the decks splashing green for goyf greatly outnumber the decks splashing white for StoP. Your response to that seems to be "Of course. Goyf is a threat, and threats are better than answers." Well, yeah... Thanks for proving our point.

When Archetypes splash an aggro creature because it is too good not to run, then there may be a problem (See, for example, Landstill, ITF).

*scratches head* Which side are you on again?

[from Cairo]

I think he's presenting different view points, or a conflicting dialogue. One doesn't have to pick sides. Tarmogoyf clearly has made a huge impact on Legacy, whether it's ban-worthy or sucks the fun from the format is debatable.

I don't understand why like 16 threads in the past month have turned into "ZoMg BANN Tarmogoyf vs. Tarmogoyf is not OP".

None of us have any say in it regardless so debating it isn't going to effect the outcome anyway. And the 1 thread seems like more than enough to be honest. I seriously hardly want to bother reading anything in the Format Discussion section of the boards cause its the same arguement with the same people regardless of what the initial topic is, it might as well be "What are your feelings on Tarmogoyf".

[raharu]

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

Vindicate is just a little bit less good than Swords to Plowshares and then only because it dictates a second color in your scheme and comes down a bit later in the game state. For that significant handicap you also get to remove permanents other than creatures also.

Oblivion Ring may actually be better than either of them because it also allows you to remove any permanent from play however it doesn't require a black splash in the deck and is therefore a slightly more reliable solution than Vindicate.

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

lol

Back on topic, the parable that threats are better than answers keeps recurring. This makes no sense, because when you take a look at the Top Eight data from the GP, the Decklists and card information gathered from said tournament, and the LMF, all those decks and cards are control decks and composed of answers (barring Tarmogoyf. Just to mention). So... are threats really better than answers, or does a deck entirely composed of answers beat a single threat, which just happens to be the most efficient in the game and the only one worth playing.

Just a few thoughts. I know what my next deck is going to look like, though.

[memnarch]

Thanks Green One and everyone that put work into this thread. That creature list isn't super surprising because I have seen those creatures showing up more in the meta. But it is a fairly recent change. Considering hyppie dies to trygon and are also still strong and at the top of the list. Infact I still think hyppie > trygon but its close. tyrgon also kills hyppie. But against control and combo and really everything hyppie is relevent. But people are using ALOT of new creatures from the new sets Sower of Temptation is actually the one surprise because I haven't seen it that much. But honestly I think shackles is waay better if you have the mana base. I'm a little peeved that hyppie is last on the list :(