[Official] Bitching About Prices, Buyouts and Reprints Thread

[Koby]

So all these modern cards are exploding, right. But when is a good time to really unload them? When is the next PTQ or any other tourneys for modern?

My initial guess is during the first few weeks of the PTQ season. However, at this point prior to the Pro Tour, we don't know which strategy will ultimately be the top tier - and this could cause wild fluctuations in prices.

For MTGO - the best time to sell back Modern cards will be this upcoming Wednesday when the format becomes officially sanctioned for tournament play. The demand there should spike heavily around that time.

[crovakiet]

I don't care much about modern, so for me the good time is now. I have 12 Shocklands I purchased for 3-4 euros each and I think the best time to unload is now. I'm also wondering how much a foil Watery Grave should go for ?

I would probably find an EDH player who needs Watery Grave and would pay out the nose to pimp his deck out with the foil watery grave, especially now with all the speculation. Otherwise, the general rule of 2-3x the non foil price I guess depending on demand.

[SpikeyMikey]

Lol @ modern being just as expensive as legacy. This is just nuts.
It seems like people don't get that the reason legacy staples are expensive is because of the small print run..

Doesn't this actually show the opposite? That Legacy prices are not actually priced based on player demand but by set by speculators?

I mean, I've heard numerous times that Mirrodin was where the popularity of the game really exploded, so therefore there should be a ton of these cards out there, even the "old" ones like Bob (and I have to laugh at calling that old) or whatever. SoFI won't even see much Modern play and it's $35/$80 regular/foil. And yes, I know, every EDH deck ever, but that's 1 copy each. Ditto Legacy, if you're playing SoFI, you're play SFM and 1 copy. So somewhow, there were a shit ton of these around, enough for everyone that wanted playsets when they came out, but now 1 is difficult to get (SCG is sold out of NM/M copies at $35 each) at 8 1/2 times the price of when they were at their peak for popularity? I mean, yes, I know that was 7 years ago. But finding a 2004 Honda Accord isn't much more difficult than finding a 2011 Honda Accord. It's not like these things were Mythic.

[Koby]

Much about the MTG singles market doesn't make very much logical sense.

Part of the problem is that no one is willing to sell at a lower price than they bought in for.

[(nameless one)]

What about that Vesuva. It's about $25-30 now. To think I almost traded my 3 Vesuvas for a City of Traitors. Good thing he declined.

[lordofthepit]

I used to think that the rapidly increasing prices on Legacy staples were a phenomenon unique to Legacy. That is, enough Magic players had caught up to what I had known ever since my Ball Lightnings and Cursed Scrolls plummeted in price--that buying into Eternal formats (Type 1/1.5 at the time) was much better, cheaper, and more enjoyable in the long run than buying into Standard. And I am sure that older Magic fans have been aware of this for even longer than I have. Around 2008, however, more players came to appreciate that Legacy staples were undervalued and began speculating, driving the price up accordingly.

However, I now believe that increased interest in Legacy is only one small factor contributing to increased prices across the board. Rather, price trends have been driven primarily by increased speculation. Many players have dedicated themselves to "grinding", acquiring massive volumes of cards (their "inventory") to add to their collections ("portfolios"). They write articles to glamorize what they do, inspiring other wannabes. As a result, speculation occurs on a much larger scale then it did before. If someone perceives card X as being slightly undervalued and writes about it, it's very much likely that every prominent online retailer will be cleaned out of X in a matter of hours.

I think the upward trends of "pimp" foils, EDH staples, and most recently, Modern staples is a manifestation of this increased speculation. Pimp cards aren't inherently necessary to be competitive in their respective formats. EDH cards is by its very nature not a competitive format, and from what I understand, is a format in which you can use non-tournament legal cards. And staples for Modern--a format that resembles old Extended--have seen prices double or triple their prices during Extended, even before Modern was officially announced as a format.

Maybe when enough Modern staples are reprinted, this speculation craze will subside.

[Mr.C]

I used to think that the rapidly increasing prices on Legacy staples were a phenomenon unique to Legacy. That is, enough Magic players had caught up to what I had known ever since my Ball Lightnings and Cursed Scrolls plummeted in price--that buying into Eternal formats (Type 1/1.5 at the time) was much better, cheaper, and more enjoyable in the long run than buying into Standard. And I am sure that older Magic fans have been aware of this for even longer than I have. Around 2008, however, more players came to appreciate that Legacy staples were undervalued and began speculating, driving the price up accordingly.

However, I now believe that increased interest in Legacy is only one small factor contributing to increased prices across the board. Rather, price trends have been driven primarily by increased speculation. Many players have dedicated themselves to "grinding", acquiring massive volumes of cards (their "inventory") to add to their collections ("portfolios"). They write articles to glamorize what they do, inspiring other wannabes. As a result, speculation occurs on a much larger scale then it did before. If someone perceives card X as being slightly undervalued and writes about it, it's very much likely that every prominent online retailer will be cleaned out of X in a matter of hours.

I think the upward trends of "pimp" foils, EDH staples, and most recently, Modern staples is a manifestation of this increased speculation. Pimp cards aren't inherently necessary to be competitive in their respective formats. EDH cards is by its very nature not a competitive format, and from what I understand, is a format in which you can use non-tournament legal cards. And staples for Modern--a format that resembles old Extended--have seen prices double or triple their prices during Extended, even before Modern was officially announced as a format.

Maybe when enough Modern staples are reprinted, this speculation craze will subside.

Yeah, it is getting out of hand. What's next, painlands at $10? Geez. Vesuva at 25 is ludicrous. Time Spiral was a very heavily opened set, less than five years ago.

Either that, or there really isn't a lot of Magic stock.

[routlaw]

The numbers of Vesuvas in active circulation have gone down a LOT since the EDH shebang started. I think that land is considered very much a "staple" in that format and it was creeping $10 before the Modern news hit.

[dontbiteitholmes]

A lot of people are putting themselves in a position to get seriously burned. I think it's important to remember Magic is a game and not rely on being able to cash out at the current value of cards whenever you feel like it. Right now the reason a lot of cards are valued what they are is because a significant amount of the secondary market is in the hands of vendors. There have never been more Magic dealers then there are right now and a lot of them have huge inventories of staple cards. I know of one guy locally who for example has a 300 count box full of Force of Wills and that isn't even the beginning of his stock obviously.

The way the economy is looking right now is shaky at best and a lot of people are starting to predict a double dip recession with round 2 coming in the next 2 years. If this happens a lot of the players are going to lose jobs or be short on money and start liquidating their collections. This will flood the market with a lot of cheaper cards at a time when there will be less demand with a downward economy and a lot of the people who have serious collections aging several years and making the transition from high school to college, or from college to looking for work, or from working to starting a family and needing extra money, or working to suddenly unemployed. If this happens a lot of the smaller outfits that have been greedy on holding extra stock will start to feel the sting and many will start to go under and end up further flooding the market with cheap stock and it all spirals down from there. Right now Magic cards are looking a lot like a classic bubble. Cards that were practically worthless for a long time are quickly shooting up in value and we are all paying out the ass for what amounts to a hobby, a lot of greedy dealers are setting prices that rely on record high demand and the fact that other dealers set equally high prices and also have huge amounts of stock.

If any of these pieces gets pulled out and prices start to fall as quickly as they have risen in the past a lot of collections could lose a lot of value overnight and all of a sudden the people who have been thinking they were so smart the last couple months could get caught with a basket full of unhatched eggs and end up looking quite foolish.

I'm not saying this to be a doom bringer or to make myself feel better because I'm some scrub with a weak ass collection (I'm not, I have at least a 3k collection right now). I'm just putting that out there because a lot of people in this thread seem to be stroking their own egos about how great they are at turning a profit off Magic cards and a lot more people seem to be on the verge of trying to get into the buying/selling game with dollar signs in their eyes. People seem to have very short vision when it comes to the current situation with card prices overall. It's one thing to lose 10-30% value if your collection is a personal hobby one it's quite another if that collection is something you view as an investment and you have a lot of extra stock in cards you banked on selling for what they were valued at when you bought them. All I'm saying is don't be foolish. It's hard to look at the current situation with so many small dealers out there holding huge stocks like every day is Christmas and not think that everyone is being a little greedy and shortsighted and if 10% of those dealers suddenly realize their investment is looking shaky and rush to sell out while they can it's not going to be so much a ripple effect but more of a nosedive.

[jandax]

Eternal staples are like GM stocks thirty years ago.

Given a little time, they won't be worth the paper they're printed on.

[socialite]

Eternal staples are like GM stocks thirty years ago.

Given a little time, they won't be worth the paper they're printed on.

Yeah people said that right after AN was released; look at the game now.

[phonics]

But what would cause a 'crash' on the prices (short of dropping the format)? Prices are only rising because people are willing to pay that much.

[joemauer]

Dontbiteitholmes hit it on the head when he said this is a classic bubble. People talk like they did during the housing bubble.
These cards will only appreciate!
My cards doubled/tripled overnight!

Yeah I've been thinking this was bubble waiting to burst for a while now. Give it another year or two. Could be sooner if wizards does something stupid.

[TsumiBand]

A lot of people are putting themselves in a position to get seriously burned. I think it's important to remember Magic is a game and not rely on being able to cash out at the current value of cards whenever you feel like it. Right now the reason a lot of cards are valued what they are is because a significant amount of the secondary market is in the hands of vendors. There have never been more Magic dealers then there are right now and a lot of them have huge inventories of staple cards. I know of one guy locally who for example has a 300 count box full of Force of Wills and that isn't even the beginning of his stock obviously.

The way the economy is looking right now is shaky at best and a lot of people are starting to predict a double dip recession with round 2 coming in the next 2 years. If this happens a lot of the players are going to lose jobs or be short on money and start liquidating their collections. This will flood the market with a lot of cheaper cards at a time when there will be less demand with a downward economy and a lot of the people who have serious collections aging several years and making the transition from high school to college, or from college to looking for work, or from working to starting a family and needing extra money, or working to suddenly unemployed. If this happens a lot of the smaller outfits that have been greedy on holding extra stock will start to feel the sting and many will start to go under and end up further flooding the market with cheap stock and it all spirals down from there. Right now Magic cards are looking a lot like a classic bubble. Cards that were practically worthless for a long time are quickly shooting up in value and we are all paying out the ass for what amounts to a hobby, a lot of greedy dealers are setting prices that rely on record high demand and the fact that other dealers set equally high prices and also have huge amounts of stock.

If any of these pieces gets pulled out and prices start to fall as quickly as they have risen in the past a lot of collections could lose a lot of value overnight and all of a sudden the people who have been thinking they were so smart the last couple months could get caught with a basket full of unhatched eggs and end up looking quite foolish.

I'm not saying this to be a doom bringer or to make myself feel better because I'm some scrub with a weak ass collection (I'm not, I have at least a 3k collection right now). I'm just putting that out there because a lot of people in this thread seem to be stroking their own egos about how great they are at turning a profit off Magic cards and a lot more people seem to be on the verge of trying to get into the buying/selling game with dollar signs in their eyes. People seem to have very short vision when it comes to the current situation with card prices overall. It's one thing to lose 10-30% value if your collection is a personal hobby one it's quite another if that collection is something you view as an investment and you have a lot of extra stock in cards you banked on selling for what they were valued at when you bought them. All I'm saying is don't be foolish. It's hard to look at the current situation with so many small dealers out there holding huge stocks like every day is Christmas and not think that everyone is being a little greedy and shortsighted and if 10% of those dealers suddenly realize their investment is looking shaky and rush to sell out while they can it's not going to be so much a ripple effect but more of a nosedive.

Truth. Has the gospel of Beanie Baby taught us nothing? People were going to send their kids to college based on the turnaround on Beanie Babies. What did people think they were stuffed with, gold-pressed latinum?

As a guy who's had two potential careers poop in his lap over the last four years, I have to say that yeah I have a somewhat vested interest in seeing the price of Magic cards come down. I do not expect a magical candy-land where every card I ever wanted ever is 50 cents; at the same time I don't like watching the market turn to speculation, and I don't like watching hardcore competitive nerds satiate the speculators. It puts a lot of people in a position to just lose. Modern's effect on price points feels completely artificial and unfounded at this point; there's barely enough data to make a DTB gauntlet and people are putting $25 price tags on Temple Gardens? Fuck you.

[Hummingbird TG]

I just cashed out whatever cards I have that have any value - if there's a crash anytime soon i can pick them all up again and more. It is, after all, as everyone's pointed out, unsustainable.

[ramanujan]

My 2c,

This is indeed out of hand. We have some indication of what good decks may be, and because of that, there has been absolutely massive increases in prices. I think that there are way to many people out there with money, or more likely cash advances, to burn that think (Probably incorrectly) that they can pick the big cards out of the format before they are established through tournament performances. They invest, as if it were a stock, into the card or cards that they believe is worthwhile. This is risky behavior which will ultimately burn some people.

In the end, the investors pay extremely hefty margins even when an investment goes your way. For example, say I want to invest in card X, I pay full retail for it and shipping to buy many copies of it. The more copies you get, the smaller the effect that shipping costs affect the per unit cost of X, so I buy 100 copies at 4.00. Suppose that the price doubles to 8.00 at the retailer where I purchased it. Chances are I can barely profit because the dealer probably only credits half the price (perhapse 25% trade bonus). Only a few retailers are willing to accept so many copies of a card, almost certainly not your local B&M store. Now you are faced with the work of either selling to the one of the large online retailers for almost no profit or auctioning off your surplus. With an auction, as the seller you pay a hefty fee to use the service, cutting into profit. The shipping costs are factored into bids so chances are you will eat that cost as well. In addition, there is a significant risk of getting ripped as the seller on auction sites. Auction sites tend to side with the purchaser so you might want to protect your backside with address confirmation, another cost you eat. Complicating the situation is that unlike when you purchased 100 copies and paid one shipping fee, chances are you will be selling many smaller auctions, further exacerbating the shipping and auction fee problems.

So, what you need in the end is for a card to really spike by more than double for it to be worth your while. The unit cost needs to be high enough in the end to justify the shipping, and you need to be able to turn product quickly enough to avoid any negative changes in the market, like what happenned with Candelabra of Tawnos. In the end, yes you can make some money if you have your ear to the grindstone and you are willing to work really hard to buy and sell when the moment is right. I would rather get paid consistently for minimum wage than try to time the market and accept those rediculous margins. I bet there are many people out there like me.

However, I also bet that there are many people chasing the dream of buying a 300 cards for a buck and then selling them at 25. Easy investments with credit or savings make the dream seem real. We will see in time whether it was worth it for the speculators, my money is on no.

[GGoober]

Wow, Vesuva is $25+ now? I bought my foil one for $7 just a year ago!!

Think it's time to unload. The land is not even that good in EDH (unless you're using it to kill Cradles/Kor Havens or the rare occassion on copying a Workshop).

Also, what are your thoughts on Reflecting Pool for Modern? The card used to be sky high in Standard, and I think RPool is going to be an important staple for Modern. It hasn't creeped up yet, but thoughts if it'll hit $20+? For control/mid-range decks that are 3+ colors, I think you would have to play 2-4 Reflecting Pool to have the manabase work without dying to Boltlands.

[lordofthepit]

But what would cause a 'crash' on the prices (short of dropping the format)? Prices are only rising because people are willing to pay that much.

Legacy Staples A, B, and C start going up like crazy in price.

EDH Staples M, N, and O go up in price.

Modern Staples X, W, and Y go up in price, plus cycle Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, and Z5 shoot up as well.

In the next set, C, O, and Y are reprinted, plus all of cycle Z. Obviously, that depresses the prices of each of those cards, and probably makes speculators think twice about speculating in the future. Non-reserved cards likely get hit as a collateral effect, and the speculation momentum stops.

Of course, this depends on what the mindset of speculators are. The ones who have bought in for the purpose of aggressively reselling are certainly more optimistic than me (which is why I don't do anything but buy my necessary playsets for own use), but I imagine this would stop them. I'm not saying this as a bitter player with a tiny collection either (I have all the Legacy staples: 40+ duals, 50+ fetchlands, Forces, Jaces, LEDs, Goyfs, NOs).

[Zolek]

All it takes is some reprints and prices could crash through the floor, causing a lot of collateral damage to the game in general. Just look at the 1990s comic crash for how damaging a magic speculation bubble popping could be.

[Julian23]

All it takes is some reprints and prices could crash through the floor, causing a lot of collateral damage to the game in general. Just look at the 1990s comic crash for how damaging a magic speculation bubble popping could be.

So I hear people still read comics.


/edit: So I actually took the time to inform myself on that comic book crash. As a matter of fact it was just another bubble, caused by massive speculation, bursting. Those things happen, just look at what happened even to global economy 2-3 years ago. However, don't blame the people that burst the bubble but actually those who played their part in creating it. If reprinting Legacy staples is going to hurt people who kept believing their cards would never drop in price, I'm fine with that. It's not like I'm advocating reprinting reserved list stuff (without providing an about 5-year warning before doing so) but: please go ahead and reprint any Legacy staples that aren't on the reserved list. This includes bending the reprint policy (that MaRo and Aaron Forsythe would love to get rid off anyways) as far as possible (snow duals? do it!). If doing so actually hurts "prices" this will be due to people just feeling justified to keep ignoring that prices might drop.

(not that it should matter, but this comes from someone who owns most of those staples, I wan't to see reprinted.)