GP Amsterdam Top 8

[Gui]

Here's a % of decks from day 1 that made into day 2.
The "x%" in front of the deck means that x% of the players playing that deck made into day 2.

I call the % "entrance", and it's ordered by best "entrance".

Team America -- 39.71%
Canadian Threshold -- 36.09%
Bant -- 32.46%
Dredge -- 18.94%
UW Stoneforge -- 17.72%
Maverick -- 16.74%
Ad Nauseam Tendrils -- 15.82%
Elves -- 10.82%
Goblins -- 10.80%
Sneak Attack -- 8.67%
Reanimator -- 8.28%
Merfolk -- 8.12%
UB Snapcaster Control -- 6.20%
Doomsday -- 5.36%
Zoo -- 4.82%
BUG -- 3.61%
High Tide -- 2.68%
Burn -- 2.17%
Junk -- 1.79%

I took the most expressive values, so that the sample size is considerable enough. I don't know if this data should be used as a indicator of the power level of the decks, but I believe so.

UGx decks combined (Bant, Canadian, TA) have 36%. Their numbers are impressive, at least to me.

[Esper3k]

Dredge's 94% is pretty nuts!

[Gui]

Dredge's 94% is pretty nuts!

it's 18,94%

[Admiral_Arzar]

I find it interesting that Dredge put so many players into day 2 whereas ReAnimator did not (considering they tend to have issues with the same type of hate). The extremely poor performances of High Tide and Junk don't really make much sense to me either, as both decks seem pretty strong (I guess Snare + Snapcaster does screw over Junk pretty badly though). In my testing, High Tide is generally even to favorable against blue decks assuming they don't play Counterbalance or Hymn. A TMI-style breakdown of this event would be amazing to look at.

[Adan]

I find it interesting that Dredge put so many players into day 2 whereas ReAnimator did not (considering they tend to have issues with the same type of hate). The extremely poor performances of High Tide and Junk don't really make much sense to me either, as both decks seem pretty strong (I guess Snare + Snapcaster does screw over Junk pretty badly though). In my testing, High Tide is generally even to favorable against blue decks assuming they don't play Counterbalance or Hymn. A TMI-style breakdown of this event would be amazing to look at.

The connection between Reanimator and Dredge jerking off on Hightide-players' faces is Iona, Shield of Emeria. Obvious, huh?

[Esper3k]

it's 18,94%

Oh, I'm sorry - I completely misread how that was formatted.

I thought that meant 18 players, 94%! :)

[Gui]

Oh, I'm sorry - I completely misread how that was formatted.

I thought that meant 18 players, 94%! :)

My fault, coma is the default decimal separator here in Brasil. xD
Fixed for dots. No tabs allowed also sux.

[nedleeds]

As incredibly strong as Brainstorm is, I think it could do irreparable harm to the format to ban it. I suspect people would leave the format in droves if it got the axe.

I agree. I think it's banning would have to coincide with several (obvious) unbannings.

[Admiral_Arzar]

*Condescending Bullshit*

As a Tide player, I'm aware of what Iona does to the deck, bro. I'm pretty sure that's not the only factor, as it wasn't like the whole field was ReAnimator and Dredge.

[Gui]

As a Tide player, I'm aware of what Iona does to the deck, bro. I'm pretty sure that's not the only factor, as it wasn't like the whole field was ReAnimator and Dredge.

Keep in mind that the numbers clould also mean that the general player of one deck sux more than the general player of the other deck, or that the deck is harder to play, or that the sample is too narrow to compare.

[bruizar]

Would banning Brainstorm really make the format more diverse? Will it make Nimble Mongoose better than Tarmogoyf?
There's no question that it would definitely change the format a lot (maybe to the better, maybe to the worse).
But what makes people so sure that this also automatically means that the format would get more diverse?
I am quit sure it wouldn't. There are so many cards that are just "The Best" at what they do so you will still have a creature based Deck that is better than the rest and a Combo deck that is best and so on... and I am failing to see how banning of Brainstorm would change this in any way.

They will ban brainstorm, but only to drive the legacy player base to modern like they did with vintage.

[nedleeds]

Step1: Whine about Brainstorm. Step 2: They print a card that can handle Brainstorm. Step 3: Whine about said card until it gets banned. Step 4: go to Step 1.

If thats what you want to do, fine. I for myself think the meta is very diverse right now, and it's fine as it is. Lots of different decks are viable right now, even non-blue strategies.

I mean these results indicate it isn't very diverse ... when it comes to Brainstorm. I agree with your Step 1,2,3. Mental Misstep was just misplaced in blue, had it been {RP} - Counter target instant or sorcery I think we'd all be singing a different tune. It couldn't counter men and it couldn't counter The Precious Aether Vial.

I don't necessarily *want* Brainstorm banned but to say that it doesn't more than meet the criteria is painfully stubborn. I'm an advocate for removing cards from the banned list.

- Mind Twist (sadly, it would probably be mostly played in U control if at all)
- Earthcraft (really. come on. 1G then 1GG. then an attack step ... on the ground)
- Memory Jar (we have ad nauseum ... let this card go for 6 months and see what happens)
- Survival of the Fittest (really, the card was competitive and fine for 6 years)

It's sad 2 fantastic green cards are banned while brainstorm runs amok as an auto 4 of. Survival was banned on the back of the whining of blue players who lost when it resolved and were too stubborn to play artifact / enchant removal main deck (or pithing needle, or gravehate or any other non Swords / Counterspell card).

[nedleeds]

EDIT: Why was there only one Zoo deck in the top 32? What happened there?

It's tough to win at magic when your opponents are drawing 3 for U and you can't fix your hand, and are the mercy of the top of your library. Also tough to justify non-blue creatures when they print stuff like Delver, Clique and Snapcaster. How in the world does WotC justify the best 3 creatures in the new set being blue?

[Aggro_zombies]

It's tough to win at magic when your opponents are drawing 3 for U and you can't fix your hand, and are the mercy of the top of your library. Also tough to justify non-blue creatures when they print stuff like Delver, Clique and Snapcaster. How in the world does WotC justify the best 3 creatures in the new set being blue?

Because they hate you.

And in other news, tempo decks and Bant midrange continue to be really strong choices. If the amount of combo starts to go down after this GP, the format will probably diversify more, but as long as people think that MMS being banned means combo is suddenly the bestest thing ever, blue will continue to be a strong choice. Hopefully in the next few months we'll see a surge in anti-blue strategies that are typically vulnerable to combo decks (though it's hard to say because Legacy is starting to suffer from a lot of the groupthink and herd mentality that Standard has in terms of deckbuilding and deck choice).

[Gui]

Here's a % of decks from day 1 that made into day 2.
The "x%" in front of the deck means that x% of the players playing that deck made into day 2.

I call the % "entrance", and it's ordered by best "entrance".

Team America -- 39.71%
Canadian Threshold -- 36.09%
Bant -- 32.46%
Dredge -- 18.94%
UW Stoneforge -- 17.72%
Maverick -- 16.74%
Ad Nauseam Tendrils -- 15.82%
Elves -- 10.82%
Goblins -- 10.80%
Sneak Attack -- 8.67%
Reanimator -- 8.28%
Merfolk -- 8.12%
UB Snapcaster Control -- 6.20%
Doomsday -- 5.36%
Zoo -- 4.82%
BUG -- 3.61%
High Tide -- 2.68%
Burn -- 2.17%
Junk -- 1.79%

I took the most expressive values, so that the sample size is considerable enough. I don't know if this data should be used as a indicator of the power level of the decks, but I believe so.

UGx decks combined (Bant, Canadian, TA) have 36%. Their numbers are impressive, at least to me.

Just wanna add that, with 1847 players in day 1, and 225 players in day 2, 12.18% of the players made it to day 2.

Could someone tell me if it's right to say that any deck with an entrance of more than 12% could be considered to be over performing, or is this just not related at all?

[nedleeds]

They will ban brainstorm, but only to drive the legacy player base to modern like they did with vintage.

If you are quitting over Brainstorm being banned you probably didn't like Magic much anyway. You just enjoyed winning, and playing the best deck ... which is fine. So what difference does it make the format you play in if that's your attitude; just pick the best deck; assemble it and carry on. Brainstorm is currently a giant crutch for blue (and combo) decks. It lets you cheat on mana, cheat on keeps, cheat on late game top decks. It's so clearly more powerful then other cards on the banned list it's not even debatable.

For blue losing Brainstorm would mean either sorcery speed hand fixing, or 2 mana hand fixing. Woe is me.

[Admiral_Arzar]

Hopefully in the next few months we'll see a surge in anti-blue strategies that are typically vulnerable to combo decks (though it's hard to say because Legacy is starting to suffer from a lot of the groupthink and herd mentality that Standard has in terms of deckbuilding and deck choice).

This is true. The SCG flavor-of-the-week thing is starting to get a little annoying. At least the European GP was less affected, although still rather blue (the SCG this weekend was stupidly blue thanks to the hive mind).

[Koby]

Because they hate you.

And in other news, tempo decks and Bant midrange continue to be really strong choices. If the amount of combo starts to go down after this GP, the format will probably diversify more, but as long as people think that MMS being banned means combo is suddenly the bestest thing ever, blue will continue to be a strong choice. Hopefully in the next few months we'll see a surge in anti-blue strategies that are typically vulnerable to combo decks (though it's hard to say because Legacy is starting to suffer from a lot of the groupthink and herd mentality that Standard has in terms of deckbuilding and deck choice).

I hope the trend of Combo decks declining and Blue Mid-range rising continuing.

I would love to rip apart such a metagame with the B.o.B.* monster that is Maverick.

* Beats on Blue

[Admiral_Arzar]

I hope the trend of Combo decks declining and Blue Mid-range rising continuing.

I would love to rip apart such a metagame with the B.o.B.* monster that is Maverick.

* Beats on Blue

Maverick isn't even that bad against combo (as aggro decks go it has a ton of hate) which is why it's so strong in the combo-heavy European meta.

[Koby]

Maverick isn't even that bad against combo (as aggro decks go it has a ton of hate) which is why it's so strong in the combo-heavy European meta.

Depends on the type of combo, but yes that's ostensibly true. ANT, Belcher, Hive Mind and DDFT are very hard for the deck to beat, while High Tide, Elves, and other assorted Turn3-4 combos are easier.

My prediction for SCG events going forward in the next 3-4 weeks is that the Blue/tempo trend to continue especially off the back of GP Amsterdam, which positions Maverick in a good spot. Good thing no one plays the deck in the good ole' US of mother-loving A that its completely off the radar for 60% of the SCG crowd.

I just hope tons of Merfolk show up to attack the blue decks, nothing is more rewarding that frying Fish with SoFI. :grin: