All B/R update speculation.

[menace13]

The data we're both using describes two different things. In the post I quoted, you argued that RUG had no "bad match ups". The data I posted talked about direct match ups where RUG went against Maverick & UW Stoneblade. It indicated that RUG has a weak match up against UW Stoneblade and Maverick (also Pox).

The data you refer to doesn't describe anything relevant to RUG's match-ups. At best, one could argue that RUG having a high number of placements means it has reasonably strong match-ups: 57% overall win percentage indicates that. However, it has weak individual match ups and can be metagamed out if peope are playing the right decks. Using placement as the basis for determining a deck's match-ups leads to erroneous conclusions. The data doesn't describe what you're claiming it describes, and there are other variables such as frequency of the decks that can impact the placement. If 25% of the field is RUG it will flood top eights.

I argue that right now RUG has very few bad match ups. Not none.

The data you showed is 2 months old. RUG has for the past 2 months evolved to be the most winning deck, where during the time of the Hatfield article Stoneblade was the most winning(and also the most played at the opens 14%?). The field may have switched to more RUG but that would lead me to believe that the people playing it think it to be their best option. The data describes exactly as I claim; right now RUG has very few bad match ups in the field. If the top 8s consist of RUG Mav and Blade and RUG keeps out placing them then It is safe to say they are not bad match ups.

[Koby]

I own sneaks and shows along with alot of other people... but I would also like to see some unbannings in June.

Same, except...

Consider - There's a Grand Prix for Legacy at the end of June. If (un)/banning went into effect prior to the tournament, it would be a good testing tool to see what we have. I certainly wouldn't like a large shake-up in the metagame as it would invalidate several months of preparation just to have a short experiment.

[Di]

Same, except...

Consider - There's a Grand Prix for Legacy at the end of June. If (un)/banning went into effect prior to the tournament, it would be a good testing tool to see what we have. I certainly wouldn't like a large shake-up in the metagame as it would invalidate several months of preparation just to have a short experiment.

The DCI did absolutely nothing after they "fixed" Flash in April 2007, only a month prior to GP: Columbus, even though they certainly had knowledge about the detrimental effects it would have on the format. Sure they banned it afterwards but the damage was already done. Given that giant fiasco and how that essentially invalidated years of work (not to mention ruined what was only the 2nd American Legacy GP), I don't think they'd be afraid to pull the trigger on something like an unbanning that close to a large event.

[JamieW89]

The DCI did absolutely nothing after they "fixed" Flash in April 2007, only a month prior to GP: Columbus, even though they certainly had knowledge about the detrimental effects it would have on the format. Sure they banned it afterwards but the damage was already done. Given that giant fiasco and how that essentially invalidated years of work (not to mention ruined what was only the 2nd American Legacy GP), I don't think they'd be afraid to pull the trigger on something like an unbanning that close to a large event.

They banned Misstep just prior to GP Amsterdam as well last year. I can see them banning something before GP Ghent and the American GP this year also.

[rxavage]

Same, except...

Consider - There's a Grand Prix for Legacy at the end of June. If (un)/banning went into effect prior to the tournament, it would be a good testing tool to see what we have. I certainly wouldn't like a large shake-up in the metagame as it would invalidate several months of preparation just to have a short experiment.

Fair enough. I don't think removing several cards from the B&R list at once is a good idea either. My only argument is that I would like to see unbannings and not ridiculous bannings.

[Lord Seth]

http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/bus...ide=&strict=on

Nearly half of those tournaments had less than 20 players. None had 50 or more. The smaller the tournament, the less "top 8" actually means. Admittedly, Vintage inherently has relatively small tournaments, but I do wonder how much Delver actually works in truly top-level Vintage.

Worth pointing out, though, that quite a few Legacy staples are in those builds (for example, Tarmogoyf) so advocating banning Delver on the ground that "it gets played in Vintage!" seems rather fallacious.

[Tammit67]

Nearly half of those tournaments had less than 20 players. None had 50 or more. The smaller the tournament, the less "top 8" actually means. Admittedly, Vintage inherently has relatively small tournaments, but I do wonder how much Delver actually works in truly top-level Vintage.

It's pretty decent for fish decks

The RUG 'dominance' can be attributed to people playing it in droves at SCG, as opposed to it doing unfairly well then people showing up with it. Look to europe.

[joemauer]

Tacosnape, you are overreacting and bullshitting.
Any tempo deck has good matchup against S&T decks, merfolks, decks based on heavy disruption and mana denial. I watched deadguy ale raping them alive - first turn iok, second hymn, third turn wasteland + confidant, fourth turn liliana and so on... S&T didnt have a chance. And please, don't say that maverick is smashed by show and tell decks, at least you can put your KOTR in play via S&T and go for karakas.... I played sneak show against maverick couple of times, and it's a 50:50 matchup. It's not so easy as you say. You must get through thalia, wastelands, KOTRs+wasteland+karakas, qasali and other form of answers....
Why are you whining? S&T decks are not even close to numbers of showing in top 8 like...erhm... maverick, rug, blade, dredge, ur burn and so on.... Where is problem? Storm and high tide are more frustrating combo decks to play against than combo decks cheating large creatures in play (sneak show, reanimator....)

Karakas does not do a whole lot when the show and tell player gets to draw 7-14 cards. The other cards you listed are quite irrelevant to a Show and Tell player.

People who fail to see that Show and Tell + Grislebrand could create a problem for the format are either a) ignorant of the power level of the combo or b) just super psyched to be able to play Necropotence again, this time for U2 instead of BBB.

[ThomasDowd]

b) just super psyched to be able to play Necropotence again, this time for U2 instead of BBB.

real talk

that is actually what it is now.

easier on the mana + force of will and demonic tutor at instant speed(that is also blue).

the deck is kind of dumb.

[Hanni]

Except Necro was a 1-card combo that you could drop turn 1 off of a single Dark Ritual, whereas Show and Tell/Grislebrand is a 2-card combo and it's a little slower. The format also has better tools for dealing with things these days. Pithing Needle comes to mind, Humility out of U/W Control, Stifle out of RUG Tempo (since the opponent is probably low on health by that point that taking 14 damage isn't a possibility), so on and so forth. The format can adapt if it needs to. Let's wait to see Top 8 domination before we start crying, especially considering that the same 3 decks have been dominating Top 8's for way too long now and it's time for a format shift anyway.

[Tacosnape]

I call bullshit on the following:

1. High Tide beating RUG Delver consistently - Just...what? If you're a hybrid of Alix Hatfield and Jesus, you might pull this one out occasionally, but, just....I mean, what?
2. Merfolk beating RUG Delver consistently - You do know that Islandwalk doesn't work when Lightning Bolt and Forked Bolt eat your guys, right? This is winnable, but yeaaah. No.
3. Countertop beating RUG Delver consistently - I'll admit, there's 300,000 Countertop builds we could be talking about, and some could be favorable, but I've seen RUG Delver just drop 1-2 dudes and stop Countertop from ever setting up quite a bit.
4. UW Snapcaster Control beating RUG Delver consistently - This is and has been my signature Legacy deck since the printing of Snapcaster Mage. Against top tier players, I can't come out better than 50/50 here. Against average players, I'm about 80-20 though. Granted, Terminus might change this, but it might not.
5. Deadguy Ale beating RUG Delver consistently - Deadguy just rolls over to this deck. And it's not that favored against Show and Tell. Ever seen what happens when Hymn to Tourach gets Misdirected? Deadguy loses. Hard.

6. Maverick being anywhere close to 50/50 against Sneaky Show. Are you high? Maverick is my #2 siganture deck. There is no single match on earth I want to see less. With maximum Revokers, you MIGHT get this to about 40/60. 35/65's a safer estimate, I think.

[lordofthepit]

Show and Tell is what's crippling the format development here, despite it not being in RUG Delver. Show me a deck that beats RUG Delver consistently that can also hang against SnT.

Dredge is really the best option.

Otherwise, I might suggest Dream Halls if your RUG opponent doesn't run Spell Pierce or Hive Mind if your RUG opponent doesn't run Stifle. And even then, I'd hardly consider them favored. I also recognize the irony of suggesting these decks as being "good" against Show and Tell.

[Mon,Goblin Chief]

I agree that Griselbrand plus Show and Tell is quite ridiculous - the comparison to Bargain is more apt than that to Necro, though, simply because you're not going to hardcast either in most games (if Grisel draws were delayed like Necroes, it would make the card significantly more beatable, too). I don't think we should talk about banning anything yet, we haven't seen if the deck will actually become as dominant as all that, though I admit the effect Show into Grisel has on a game is shockingly close to Flash into Hulk while even ignoring graveyard vulnerabilities (and no, I'm not claiming Sneak and Show is as good as Flash was).

That being said, there are two problems with Show and Tell. The first is that it hasn't a skill-cap holding it back the same way Storm-decks do. You just don't lose as many games to your deck being incredibly complicated.
The second and biggest problem with Show and Tell is the limited set of decks can interact with it even if the player decides to sideboard heavily (if you stuff four Canonists and four Mindbreak traps into your sideboard, your Storm matchup will improve significantly. The same isn't true for S&T no matter which cards you choose).
To have a chance of dealing with them now that they can often draw 14 as soon as their key-spell resolves (making Phyrexian Metamorph and Karakas not real outs) you need to be either blue with a lot of countermagic/a significant clock or black with a significant clock. What's missing are sideboard options for decks that aren't already naturally strong against combo.

As outlined in my article on bannings, having decks that dominate MD matchups in a non-interactive fashion is part of what gives Eternal formats their identity. When there is no way to make these matchups interactive postboard, that's when we have a problem. What we need is something along the lines of

Preserver of the Natural Order of Things
1G
Creature Elf
If a creature would come into play without being cast, remove it from the game instead.
2/1

or something that in a similar vein makes Show and Tell specifically weak. Intrepid Hero seems like something worth trying out in Maverick until we get a hatebear designed to deal with Show and Tell, though.

[rxavage]

I agree that Griselbrand plus Show and Tell is quite ridiculous - the comparison to Bargain is more apt than that to Necro, though, simply because you're not going to hardcast either in most games (if Grisel draws were delayed like Necroes, it would make the card significantly more beatable, too). I don't think we should talk about banning anything yet, we haven't seen if the deck will actually become as dominant as all that, though I admit the effect Show into Grisel has on a game is shockingly close to Flash into Hulk while even ignoring graveyard vulnerabilities (and no, I'm not claiming Sneak and Show is as good as Flash was).

That being said, there are two problems with Show and Tell. The first is that it hasn't a skill-cap holding it back the same way Storm-decks do. You just don't lose as many games to your deck being incredibly complicated.
The second and biggest problem with Show and Tell is the limited set of decks can interact with it even if the player decides to sideboard heavily (if you stuff four Canonists and four Mindbreak traps into your sideboard, your Storm matchup will improve significantly. The same isn't true for S&T no matter which cards you choose).
To have a chance of dealing with them now that they can often draw 14 as soon as their key-spell resolves (making Phyrexian Metamorph and Karakas not real outs) you need to be either blue with a lot of countermagic/a significant clock or black with a significant clock. What's missing are sideboard options for decks that aren't already naturally strong against combo.

As outlined in my article on bannings, having decks that dominate MD matchups in a non-interactive fashion is part of what gives Eternal formats their identity. When there is no way to make these matchups interactive postboard, that's when we have a problem. What we need is something along the lines of

Preserver of the Natural Order of Things
1G
Creature Elf
If a creature would come into play without being cast, remove it from the game instead.
2/1

or something that in a similar vein makes Show and Tell specifically weak. Intrepid Hero seems like something worth trying out in Maverick until we get a hatebear designed to deal with Show and Tell, though.

Doesn't cursed totem deal with griselbrand just fine? That hatebear shuts down more than just show and tell. The last thing I want to see is another gsz-able hatebear and especially one that completely shores up mavericks weaknesses further. Is it fair for a deck to be able to repeatable tutor for any problem for the measly cost of an extra G while mystical tutor remains banned? Creatures with abilities and etb effects are becoming more powerful and efficient than there sorcery counter parts.

[ThomasDowd]

Doesn't cursed totem deal with griselbrand just fine? That hatebear shuts down more than just show and tell. The last thing I want to see is another gsz-able hatebear and especially one that completely shores up mavericks weaknesses further. Is it fair for a deck to be able to repeatable tutor for any problem for the measly cost of an extra G while mystical tutor remains banned? Creatures with abilities and etb effects are becoming more powerful and efficient than there sorcery counter parts.

Sorcery and instant are very different things.

[menace13]

That being said, there are two problems with Show and Tell. The first is that it hasn't a skill-cap holding it back the same way Storm-decks do. You just don't lose as many games to your deck being incredibly complicated.
The second and biggest problem with Show and Tell is the limited set of decks can interact with it even if the player decides to sideboard heavily (if you stuff four Canonists and four Mindbreak traps into your sideboard, your Storm matchup will improve significantly. The same isn't true for S&T no matter which cards you choose).
To have a chance of dealing with them now that they can often draw 14 as soon as their key-spell resolves (making Phyrexian Metamorph and Karakas not real outs) you need to be either blue with a lot of countermagic/a significant clock or black with a significant clock. What's missing are sideboard options for decks that aren't already naturally strong against combo.

Those are reasons why Sneak Show is so good. It ignores 98% of your deck and once SnT resolves that number goes to like 99%(anyone?). The route to winning is clear and simple with it. Most of time the deck loses is due to consistency and usually not because it "couldn't".

It has been my pet deck since Corey Age top 8'd the GP with it and I would hate to see SnT banned.

[rxavage]

Sorcery and instant are very different things.

Really? Thanks for pointing that out.

[Barook]

Preserver of the Natural Order of Things
1G
Creature Elf
If a creature would come into play without being cast, remove it from the game instead.
2/1

or something that in a similar vein makes Show and Tell specifically weak. Intrepid Hero seems like something worth trying out in Maverick until we get a hatebear designed to deal with Show and Tell, though.

How about something like this:

Customs Officer
Creature - Human Advisor
Whenever a nonland, nontoken permanent would enter the battlefield, if it wasn't cast from a hand, exile it instead.
Whenever a spell is cast, if its mana cost wasn't paid, exile it.
2/2

Something like this would stop a whole lot of bullshit.

And I'm pretty sure that SnT will get the axe sooner or later, considering that it's one of those cards that scale with every ridiculous (but overpriced) card that gets printed. Might still take a few years, though.

[ddt15]

The choices in the format are: RUG aggro-control, UW aggro-control, GW aggro-control and S&T combo.

Aggro simply doesn't exist anymore (as in Delver is a better Zoo deck than Zoo, and Gobs... RIP), and all the other combo decks pretty much autolose to Delver and any of the 2cmc hatebears that GW plops down turn 2.

There is no need for a GSZ-able answer to S&T otherwise combo won't exist anymore either and the format'll just become Modern for old farts.

[Tacosnape]

Doesn't cursed totem deal with griselbrand just fine? That hatebear shuts down more than just show and tell.

Cursed Totem deals with Griselbrand's ability. It doesn't deal with the fact that now there's a 7/7 Flappy Lifestealy demon bonking you on the head. It also doesn't do anything against Emrakul, The Aeons Torn. The only single card I know of that just flat out deals with any guy a SnT can put down is Humility, and it's starting to live in my UW Miracle sideboard just for this reason.

Otherwise, I might suggest Dream Halls if your RUG opponent doesn't run Spell Pierce or Hive Mind if your RUG opponent doesn't run Stifle. And even then, I'd hardly consider them favored. I also recognize the irony of suggesting these decks as being "good" against Show and Tell.

They ARE Show and Tell. You illustrate my point perfectly!