If you're running 8 fetch lands, you have a 65.4% chance of drawing one in your opening 7. That goes up to 70.6% if you're on the draw. Average that out, you get 68%. Since you have a 39.9% chance of starting with any 4-of in your opening hand (going up to 44.5% on the draw), you're actually looking at a 26.1% chance of a self-activating Deathrite Shaman on the play. That's 31.4% on the draw, or, the most useful number, an average of 28.8%.Originally Posted by lavafrogg
Now you can also eat your opponents fetchlands. But if you are on the play and open with Deathrite Shaman, it's almost certain that they will not open with a fetchland if they have another land to play. Let's say your opponent is also running 8 fetchlands with 20 lands total. We'll shoot the difference between RUG and the rest of the format. You're looking at 19% of the time on the play and 14.7% on the draw where they won't have a non-fetch land. If they're on the play, they won't know to play around Deathrite Shaman, so we'll ignore those numbers for now. The actual %age of activations when you're on the draw will be higher than 19%. On the play, however, your opponent will see 14.7% of their opening hands contain no lands that aren't fetchlands. 3% of those are no-land hands and we can safely call them auto-mulls. So our opponent will be forced to play into our acceleration. Except there's one important thing to note. If they have no turn 1 plays, they can drop the fetch and wait until our end of turn step or their own upkeep to crack it.
BUG Control decks are probably a good place to start looking. If you are using Mox Diamond and Fetches you have a lot of options for getting Lands into your graveyard. I am also wondering if I could make some sort of Loam-Pox varient deck using him rather than cards like the Rack and Cursed Scroll?
I could also see using him as a one of instead of BOP in Maverick. Most Maverick decks have at least one Bog anyway so they can make Black mana. Not sure he would add enough though since making mana would mostly shrink your own Knights.
At the end of the day he may not be good enough. While not the most powerful card in the set he is still the most, IMO, interesting card in the set.
My Legacy Decks of choice: Pox, Miracles, D&T or Lands.
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If you have one Deathrite Shaman in your starting 7 you have a 54,85% chance to have also at least one fetchland out of 8 from your 60 card deck in the remaining 6 hand cards.
In the rare cases you have 2 / 3 / 4 shamans in starting 7 you have 48,7% / 41,7% / 33,5% chance to have also at least one fetchland out of 8 in the remain hand cards.
I'm not quite sure how to add these conditional probabilities together (probably weighted by the probability of their event but I don't want to consider cases where I don't have a shaman in opening hand).
I would also add 50% of the chance that opponent has at least one fetchland in starting 7: 0,5*65,4%=32,7%. Or maybe more conservatively thought 25% of it: 0,25*65,4%=16,35%
summed up roughly I would estimate at least 54% + 16% = 70% for having a fetchland in graveyard turn 2 when I have a shaman in opening hand.
Feels too optimistic.
I think the inconsistency of mana producing is the problem. In the early turns you very likely won't spend a mana on doing damage or gaining life so you only activate him for the other abilities if you are already hating out. Therefore producing mana reliably for several early turns will be needed or you just have a 1/2, which could be good later (does not sound promising to me).
So if he is not reliable enough as a manasource and his abilities are seldom used early, my guess is that it won't replace noble hierarchs/birds of paradises but some decks like Nic Fit will use him as a zenith target.
I don't see him in a Loam deck. you don't want to use shaman for mana early because you want to get lands back with loam right? :) After loaming a lot what's the point of mana acceleration.
Edit: Even if Shaman does something against decks that utilize the graveyard (snapcaster, Goyf, Goose, Knight, Lingering Souls,...), my feeling is that spending a card and a lot of mana to hate some of their cards out, can make you fall behind in tempo. Also if you see the shaman you can try to play around, attack from a different angle or just trade for it.
Currently playing: Elves
I don't think it's that easy - you must also consider Wastelands and Duals.
Deathrite Shaman is the new card for my False Cure deck.
(no picture yet, sorry)
Conjured Currency 5U Rare
Enchantment
At the beginning of your upkeep, you may exchange control of Conjured Currency and target permanent you neither own or control
Possible sideboard material against Show and Tell? Sort of awkward, but unless they drop something with haste, you get it instead of them. I suppose Gilded Drake just does the job better?
With Griselbrand/Omniscience, people can (effectively) finish the game the same turn they SnT, so dropping CC wouldn't help much.
Yeah SnT would need a much stronger hatecard, that's like soft water.
Something like:
Pay the price R
Creature - ZZZ
Sacrifice zzz, deal damage to target opponent equal to the highest cmc permanent between permanents he or she control
1/1
That would have to cost 3 mana methinks. That's too much for a proper hoser in Legacy. Try narrowing it and get out of red.
"Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job."
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Awesome Omniscience Hoser
2W
Enchantment
When Awesome Omniscience Hoser enters the battlefield, remove Omniscience from the game.
When Awesome Omniscience Hoser leaves the battlefield, return Omniscience from the game.
Oh, wait...
Super Bizarros Team. Beating everything with small green dudes and big waves.
I think the Shaman is very interesting and I think it goes without saying that it plays very well along wasteland and perhaps even sinkhole.
It will change the lines of play your opponent makes by playing an early Shaman. For example they might hold a fetchland they typically would play early (Grabbing a basic or a specific dual to turn on their hand) instead choosing to play a dual already available to them to not "turn on" shaman... leaving them vulnerable to wasteland / color screw in the early turns.
Shaman really shines against RUG. Shrinking goyfs, Mongeese, forcing odd fetchland plays, making daze worse, blocking unflipped delvers and small geese, good late game topdeck for damage or lifegain to stay out of burn range.
So the questions become:
What deck featuring black or green or both needed help against the RUG matchup?
What can we use to fuel him? Darkblast? Loam? Do we even need to fuel him?
How consistently does he make early mana? Do we need him to?
With its low and hybrid mana cost, Green suns-ability, a 1/2 body, and 3 abilities that are useful throughout the entire game (Some of which can shutdown entire strategies of decks) I feel confident that shaman and its versatility will find a place in a deck somewhere.
Why would you get out of red? Red could have decent hate if Wizards would do something more efficient that "Lightning Bolt for way too conditional stuff".
Imagine this:
Red Thalia
Legendary Creature - Human Soldier
First Strike
Whenever a nonland, nontoken permanent enters the battlefield, if it wasn't played from hand, Red Thalia deals damage equal to its casting cost to its controller.
2/1
I don't think this would be too good. It would basically only punish "unfair" strategies like S&T and Reanimator or cards that don't play fair either, like Vial, GSZ or Lackey.
You make it sound SO hard to get a couple of lands in the graveyard. OMG!Feels too optimistic.
I think the inconsistency of mana producing is the problem. In the early turns you very likely won't spend a mana on doing damage or gaining life so you only activate him for the other abilities if you are already hating out. Therefore producing mana reliably for several early turns will be needed or you just have a 1/2, which could be good later (does not sound promising to me).
So if he is not reliable enough as a manasource and his abilities are seldom used early, my guess is that it won't replace noble hierarchs/birds of paradises but some decks like Nic Fit will use him as a zenith target.
I don't see him in a Loam deck. you don't want to use shaman for mana early because you want to get lands back with loam right? :) After loaming a lot what's the point of mana acceleration.
Edit: Even if Shaman does something against decks that utilize the graveyard (snapcaster, Goyf, Goose, Knight, Lingering Souls,...), my feeling is that spending a card and a lot of mana to hate some of their cards out, can make you fall behind in tempo. Also if you see the shaman you can try to play around, attack from a different angle or just trade for it.
In a deck using Shaman, you're probably using 10 fetchlands + 4 Wastelands at minimum. Then you still have your opponents fetchlands... EVERYBODY PLAYS THOSE! Even freaking monored that top 8'ed last week on SCG used a bunch.
I would say you don't need him to add mana more than 5 time per game. After that you're probably using him just for the abilities.
Bottom line. Just because he is not Birds of Paradise 100% of the time doesn't make it a bad card.
We only considered Fetchlands so far - and I made a rather conservative estimation. Wastelands and wasted Duals will come on top of that, but most of the time not in turn 1 and 2, I think.
I also like the idea of using Shaman alongside of Sinkholes.
Nice design! :)Imagine this:
Red Thalia
Legendary Creature - Human Soldier
First Strike
Whenever a nonland, nontoken permanent enters the battlefield, if it wasn't played from hand, Red Thalia deals damage equal to its casting cost to its controller.
2/1
I don't think this would be too good. It would basically only punish "unfair" strategies like S&T and Reanimator or cards that don't play fair either, like Vial, GSZ or Lackey.
Are we really worried about "Red Thalia" hitting people for 0 damage?Red Thalia
Legendary Creature - Human Soldier
First Strike
Whenever a nonland, nontoken permanent enters the battlefield, if it wasn't played from hand, Red Thalia deals damage equal to its casting cost to its controller.
2/1
You WERE most likely running thopterswhy not just run a 2 card combo with this card instead? Seems hell of a lot better to me to have RIP + Obedience instead of thopter combo when it actually wins the game and RIP is a really decent card even without the other half of the combo.
Bardo, Site AdminNowhere do you see: Efficient Answers to Other Cards. Force and MMS will never be banned. Deal.
Tokens can have CMC
- AriLaxBrainstorm is only useful in certain situations? Brainstorm is useful when you hand is not the stone cold nutter butter blade Ranchington Q. Farnsworth Esquire best. When Brainstorm is "dead", the game is already over.
When (tokens from a clone effect)? And would such a corner case be remotely worth mentioning?
Bardo, Site AdminNowhere do you see: Efficient Answers to Other Cards. Force and MMS will never be banned. Deal.
This would be better if it was a Goblin and wasn't legendary. It's gonna be red's super two drop.Why would you get out of red? Red could have decent hate if Wizards would do something more efficient that "Lightning Bolt for way too conditional stuff".
Imagine this:
Red Thalia
Legendary Creature - Human Soldier
First Strike
Whenever a nonland, nontoken permanent enters the battlefield, if it wasn't played from hand, Red Thalia deals damage equal to its casting cost to its controller.
2/1
I don't think this would be too good. It would basically only punish "unfair" strategies like S&T and Reanimator or cards that don't play fair either, like Vial, GSZ or Lackey.
I am convinced that WotC is "dumbing" the game because of all the stupid posts they come across on MTG-related forums
Considering it (a) makes Aether Vial worse in one of the format's prominent Aether Vial decks and (b) is a Goblin Piker in the vast majority of matchups, I would think it would be a pretty terrible card.
EDIT: I guess it hits GSZ too. Still not that great.
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