It may very well be, I've never tried that configuration.Originally Posted by SaberTooth
No it isn't. It gives you a slightly higher chance of hitting off the single cantrip if you're looking for a particular card. You can still draw the cards you don't want after shuffling them away. You can't after scrying them away.
Not arguing that Ponder isn't is better most of the time, but saying that it's always the better card to have is incorrect.
Royce is right.
I've had this argument before about ponder vs preordain, and the fact of the matter is neither is strictly better (than the other).
there are situations where both are better, and in fact if you don't want any of your top 3 cards, i would sort of argue that preordain is slightly better because it leaves 2 of the unwanted cards on the bottom of the deck while you try to continue to cantrip to cards you need.
I don't think anyone is arguing that Ponder is better than Preordain 100% of the time, but it is definitely not even close.
You are wrong to correct spg, because in his example he is right by saying that Ponder is better if you don't want any of the top 3 cards of your library. With Preordain, you MUST take the 3rd card if you don't want the first or second. With Ponder, there is a chance that you will shuffle and still get one of those cards, but there is also a good chance you won't. In that scenario Preordain 100% gives you a card you don't want...
I think that in order to believe that, you have to be thinking that the only card that matters is the card that you draw from the cantrip, and that's discounting if the card you draw from the cantrip is another selection spell, where it's obviously better to have just scryed 2 to the bottom.
Well the 3rd card from the top of your library has to be a constant in this scenario because we have established that it is an unwanted card. You would know that this is an unwanted card with Ponder because you see 3 cards. If you had used a Preordain, the 3rd card is still an unwanted card, but you don't know that until you draw it. Because of this, Ponder is always the better card if the top 3 cards of your deck are unwanted cards. Does that make sense?
It's pretty weak to argue that the scrying matters anyways, because that is making the assumption that you aren't going to shuffle the deck with any other effect. The effect is also minimal in terms of statistics compared to the benefits of seeing a third card with Ponder. Let's go back to the above scenario. Let's assume your deck has 50 card in it, 20 of which you don't want to see. The top 3 are unwanted cards. With the Ponder shuffle, you have a 60% chance to draw a desired card on the turn you cantrip and a 59.2% chance to draw a desired card on the following turn (assuming you actually drew a desired card the turn before. It is 61.2% if you did not). With Preordain, you have a 0% chance of drawing a desired card on the cantrip turn and a 63.8% chance of drawing a desired card on the following turn (this includes the fact that you definitely did not draw a desired card the turn before).
Since your metric appears to be "the chance of finding what I am looking for off of this cantrip", then I agree with what you're saying. I disagree that this is the best way to compare them. Especially since you sequence your cantrips such that you get to eliminate some number of unwanted cards by Preordaining before Pondering/Brainstorming. Remember in our hypothetical that our only stipulation is that the top 3 cards of our library are undesirable. So if you have another card selection spell in your hand, is Ponder still better?
To be clear I wasn't trying to argue that Ponder is strictly better than Preordain, just that there are game situations where Ponder is strictly, mathematically better than Preordain that don't involve a fetchland.
Although I must say that the odds of redrawing shuffled cards is an interesting point that I hadn't really thought about much before in my cantrip decisions. I like numbers, so let's be a little more specific and go through some quick math to get an idea of how it can affect us:
SITUATION #1:
You need a Lion's Eye Diamond to win the game right now, otherwise you're going down the next turn to a goblin swarm. You have only one spare blue mana to cast a cantrip, and can choose between Preordain and Ponder to make it happen. Lion's Eye Diamond is the only card that will win for you, and there are 4 left in your 40 card library. None of the 4 LEDs are in the top 3 cards of your library.
Clearly Ponder at a 10% chance is strictly better than Preordain in this situation, since you can't find the LED by definition with Preordain.
Chances with Ponder = 1 - (36/40) = 10.00%
Chances with Preordain = 1 - (38/38) = 0.00%
SITUATION #2:
Same as situation 1, except you have an additional Gitaxian Probe to see one more draw beyond your Preordain/Ponder.
Preordain is better than in situation #1 (since by definition it now has some chance of finding LED) - but the dead cards do not swing the percentage into Preordain's favor. Ponder is still better.
Chances with Ponder: 1 - (36/40) x (35/39) = 19.23%
Chances with Preordain: 1 - (38/38) x (33/37) = 10.81% (first draw is dead, second draw is 4/37 because the bottom two are known non-LED cards)
SITUATION #3:
Same as situation 1, except you have THREE Gitaxian Probes to draw the next 3 cards after resolving your Ponder/Preordain.
Still heavily in Ponder's favor, although less so than Situation #2.
Chances with Ponder: 1 - (36/40) x (35/39) x (34/38) x (33/37) = 35.55%
Chances with Preordain: 1 - (37/37) x (33/37) x (32/36) x (31/35) = 29.78%
So assuming my math is correct, the two known dead cards do not tip the scales in Preordain's favor even after a free Ancestral in this situation. In these three situations Ponder is strictly, mathematically better than Preordain. Clearly though, there are also situations where the two known dead cards vs the shuffle WOULD make Preordain a better choice - it just isn't one of these three scenarios. With this simple setup, it would take 12 Gitaxian Probes (and some extra life) before the odds swung into Preordain's favor 80.85% vs 80.80%.
These three scenarios are obviously HIGHLY simplified, but I think it can still be educational. I do think that, for example, Situation #2 above is something that could really come up for you in a match - and you should always cast Ponder based on the math. Running numbers like this becomes a lot more complex if you have other complicated cantrips involved (Ponder/Brainstorm/Preordain) with shuffles, or you're looking for multiple cards, or drawing Lotus Petals, or whatever.
Personally I'm not a fan of declaring something 'strictly' better without it being mathematically, provably better - and I'm embarrassed that I did it in my previous post. My statement of "Without a fetchland, Ponder is strictly better than Preordain when you don't want any of the top 3 cards on top of your library" is clearly incorrect. Ponder is often better in that situation, but it's not STRICTLY better. Lots to think about!
Last edited by spg; 08-27-2013 at 07:05 PM.
In situation #2 you listed Preordain as better. Is that a mistake?
Edited for clarity. I meant that it's better than in situation #1, but worded it horribly. Thanks for pointing that out.
@spg: Your original statement is correct though because Preordain has 100% chance of hitting an undesirable card if the top 3 cards of your deck are undesirable, whereas Ponder has the option to see a 4th random card, meaning that there is some chance to hit a card that you need. Even with Probes, Brainstorms, whatever else, the extra card that you are seeing on your quest to find a playable card makes Ponder always better in that scenario.
I disagree. I'd rather scry 2 to the bottom before casting a Brainstorm than I would shuffle my library, draw a card, then Brainstorm.
It all depends on what you need, and when you need it exactly.
If you need one card right now, or else you just die, Ponder lets you see four cards instead of three, so it is always better.
If you have time to cantrip into new stuff, things start to change. Cantripping into one card you like, and two you don't like, is a good example of when Preordain is better. Fetch lands can help your Ponder, out of course. I add my voice to those who say that Preordain should be the first cantrip you cast. Brainstorm usually gets better when the game progresses, so Ponder fits nicely in the middle.
Like the following line of play:
Turn one: land, Preordain.
Turn two: Ponder, play fetch, fetch away irrelevant stuff, cast Duress.
Turn three: Brainstorm, play fetch, fetch away irrelevant stuff, go off (or cast second protection spell and then go off).
T2 you surely play fetch before Ponder unless you're deliberately baiting a daze or something?
That's only an example. Maybe I needed to find the fetch with my Ponder.
If my opponent plays Daze, I play the land first. If not, I sometimes keep it in hand, in order to perhaps find a different fetch land that I prefer at that moment. All depends on the situation, the opponent, cards in hand. You know. You've played this deck.
I must admit that I use cantrips to bait Daze sometimes, if I have little accelleration in hand.
That makes no sense. So you would rather definitely get a card that you don't need so that your Brainstorm does not hit the 2 cards that you put on the bottom of your deck? What if your Brainstorm then hits 2 unplayable cards anyways? What if there is at least one card in your hand that isn't that great and you draw into another? It makes no sense that you would rather have an unplayable card in your hand than a potentially very good card just so your Brainstorm has a higher percentage to hit playable cards by a couple percentage points. That logically makes no sense.
@Asthereal: Preordain is not necessarily better in a scenario when you cantrip into 1 card you like and 2 you don't because one of those three cards is going to be random with Preordain, and you will absolutely have to draw it. With Ponder you can weigh the importance of the one card you want over the other two cards because all three cards are known information. You can also use shuffle effects to get rid of the worst of the three or even get rid of two if you can fetch that turn. Regardless, the information is what is important. With Preordain you will still be stuck with drawing a random crd out of the top 3, and what if that card is the absolute worst one? Preordain can be a crapshoot and is so much worse than Ponder in a tuned combo deck like Storm.
In the situation where there are three cards on top of which you want one, and definitely do not want the other two, this is what happens:
Preordain either gets rid of both bad cards and draws the good one, or gets rid of one bad card, draws one good card, and then we have the (unknown) last bad card on top still. Ponder gives you the choice: have one good card and two bad ones, or shuffle and lose the one good card but draw one random card instead. Ponder gives you a dilemma, and you will definitely be uncomfortable with either choice you make, where Preordain makes you happy: you ditch the bad stuff, draw the good stuff, and IF the bad card is still on top, you will not know, because you haven't seen it yet. So Preordain is also better for your mood.
Haha OK you can have that point.In the situation where there are three cards on top of which you want one, and definitely do not want the other two, this is what happens:
Preordain either gets rid of both bad cards and draws the good one, or gets rid of one bad card, draws one good card, and then we have the (unknown) last bad card on top still. Ponder gives you the choice: have one good card and two bad ones, or shuffle and lose the one good card but draw one random card instead. Ponder gives you a dilemma, and you will definitely be uncomfortable with either choice you make, where Preordain makes you happy: you ditch the bad stuff, draw the good stuff, and IF the bad card is still on top, you will not know, because you haven't seen it yet. So Preordain is also better for your mood.
Followed by two pages of Ponder vs. Preordain debate...
Ok, time for a small report:
Another four-rounder on Mon, I was unable to chnage the deck to my liking, so I used the outdated version I'll never use again. Over twenty ppl showed up.
// Lands
4 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island
1 Badlands
1 Tropical Island
1 Bayou
1 Island
//\\
// Spells
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Infernal Tutor
2 Lim-Dul's Vault
3 Duress
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Past in Flames
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Empty the Warrens
//\\
// Sideboard
3 Chain of Vapor
3 Xantid Swarm
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Virtue's Ruin
2 Disfigure
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Carpet of Flowers
Round 1, Luke with Jund
g1: I won the dice roll, mulled no-lander to monstrous six that loses to any discard. (I didn't know what I stand against, though.) I GP->CT his Hymn and on my turn 2 I Ponder into AdN with double CRit and double DRit in hand. I draw lots of cards (some of them LEDs) and on my five life I finally draw LP to play the IT I had in opening hand. Crack LEDs, find ToA.
sb: in discard and removal, out some Probes and something I can't remember, maybe I switched some Duress for IoK, as the latter hits DRS?
g2: I made a mistake of fetching basic and failed to draw a black source until it was too late.
g3: I made a mistake of fetching USea and my only play before been Wasted-out was IoK.
Lovely match.
Round 2, Tom with UGBR Tempo
g1: I think I started. I was hit by discard and he Pierced my quite important Ponder, but luckily his only creature was Grim and that cantrip deathtouch flying 1/1 owl. I had three lands but only one of them was blue, so I cantripped at snail's pace. Turn before I was ready to combo, he BSed into Thoughtseize and DRS. He seized my IT/LDV, played DRS and passed. Failing to draw anything relevant, I also passed and then I lost to Goyf pretty soon after my sole blue land was wasted.
sb: in Iok, Carpets, Disfigures and Chains, out some Probes and a mix of one ofs.
g2: I had turn1 Carpet and was able to play around Pierces. I just sculpted my hand, played lands and lately killed one Shaman, woohoo! He was stuck on two lands, but had Crypt. Then he tapped for something irrelevant (I think he got his 3rd land and played Lili, but maybe it was something else, I forgot to write it down... Goyf?) and I played EOT DRit+AdN which he not surprisingly FoWed. On my turn I went LP->Carpet no. 2, move to 2nd main, add BBUU with Carpets, then Duress/IoK. LED, DRit, CRit, CT, IT, ToA. Note: if he had Surgical for my DRit, I'd maybe lost, I din't seen this play when I tried the AdN.
g3: Would you believe that 2x Spell Pierce , Thoughtseize, 2x Deathrite Shaman, Crypt, Wasteland and Clique are hard to overcome? Yep, they are; esp. when you mull to five and stuggle to cantrip into your second land. A pro tip: use some basic lands.
Round 3, Susie with Sneak Show.
Finally a matchup where it won't matter I don't use basics!
g1: I lost the dice roll and cantripped to find discard. Her turn 2 was: SOL land->S&T->SneakAtt, then LP, sac LP to Sneak Grisly, draw another LP, Sneak Emmy, gg.
sb: discard, Swarms, Chains, Carpets, out Probes, EtW and some one ofs.
g2: She opened with Leyline in her seven. I fetched Tropical and played Swarm. She thought for a while and FoWed. Her turn was Island into cantrip. I fetched USea and played Ponder, pass. She fetched Volc and cantripped. I drawn BS, played BS, played Volcanic, played Ponder which she Flustered which made me curious, but whatever and I passed with Volc, USea and Trop on my side of battlefield. She untapped, played City, played LP, played Blood Moon. Now on I durdled for a few turns and she found Sneak Attack sooner than I found any LP to even have any chance to start the combo.
Finally a matchup where it didn't matter I don't use basics!
Round 4, Jay with D&T
I considered a drop, but then I said to myself that I may play against some very small child, so why not improve my mood a bit?
g1: He won die roll and went turn 1 MoR, turn 2 Thalia, while I twiddled with cantrips. I scooped to his turn 3 Mindcensor played of Wasteland.
sb: removal and Chains instead of a mix of Probes, Therapies and Duresses
g2: I mulled to five (absolutely blank hands, I mean: really blank) and lost to Thalia, Wasteland, Canopy->Teeg, Cannonist x2. (Only after the match was over, I realized he plays several Canopies main and three Teegs sb. Must really hate combo/control).
With a quite bad 0:4 result, it was a pretty annoying tournament I dare to say.
Pros: None. Ok, I sold Mox Opal.
Cons: The whole evening? Ok, I sold that Mox Opal...
I think I'll switch back to Canada for a moment.
@bestdecksplayer
Sorry but not to play basics in this deck is completly wrong.
I think a 0:4 is diserved with wrong fetched lands etc and only 1 basic island..
You should play 1 island and 1 swamp and try again insteat of playing canadian^^
You just learning more when you try it again;)
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