The problem with a probability analysis of Spoils is that it fails to take into consideration that Spoils will increase the win % based on being such an efficient tutor. In the case of Belcher, if you don't win on the first turn, you lose regardless, so you don't care if Spoils kills you or not.
Originally Posted by wastedlife
That's just not true, and you know that Breath. It's not over until it's over. Sometimes all you need to do is buy a few turns and restock.
In a metagame full of Counterbalance, it's generally true, winning past turn 2 is the exception to the rule.
If an opponent is going to milk a Force of Will from their opening grip, they're going to need to pitch a blue card along with it. This is all assuming we've comboed out turn one (which we should have). A competent Belcher player will know not to overextend their resources too much and Empty the Warrens for six to eight - rather than eight to twelve. Sometimes holding back a key acceleration card for the price of storm could prove effective in the following turns. Obviously you will have to resort to a top-deck win condition IF they Force, but at least now you have something kept back to help. Depleting your hand is never the answer. You need to make your opponent wonder why you did that. Obviously you should dump your hand on the play, but I tend to go a fraction more reserved game two (assuming I've won game one). I beat Mono-Blue Skies for Christ's sake when my opponent let some acceleration resolve and I Emptied the Warrens for six. He tried to play poker face making me think he had Force, but either way I gave him a four (potentially three turn with Ancient Tomb/Efreet damage) clock. It also helps understanding what the opposing player is playing games two and three and who wins the die roll (which is obviously huge).
Point is: Play conservative, but never too conservative. Go for the win if you think you've got it locked down - drop your hand, seriously. But be careful - if an opponent keeps an opening hand of seven, take a second to think. Counterbalance may make its way into several big Legacy decks, but most of the time it's the supporting cards of both builds that ultimately wins or loses the game. I've battled through it before a couple times to some success and some failure; it just happens. But you cannot assume the game is over just because they drop that combo. There are plenty of outs. It just depends on how much available mana they choose to sit on and what they have on top of their library. This is where Blasts (obviously) come in handy. Sure, they might counter it by putting Sensei's Divining Top on top of their library, but you can buy yourself a turn in the early goings by doing so and potentially dropping some cards that don't necessarily cost one.
lol, then it wouldn't be a probability analysis of spoilsThe problem with a probability analysis of Spoils is that it fails to take into consideration that Spoils will increase the win % based on being such an efficient tutor. In the case of Belcher, if you don't win on the first turn, you lose regardless, so you don't care if Spoils kills you or not.
Anyway, it's good to know that those percentages apply every time you cast spoils. Sure including spoils may or may not increase the win %, but you are still dealing with a crap shoot either way.
I used to be a big advocate of Spoils. The only problem is: Even without it, you're still putting yourself at risk by depleting your hand to win the game. Spoils puts you at an additional risk of doing monumental, if not lethal, damage to yourself. I'm not saying it's bad because it isn't, but it certainly increases your risk factor of winning a game. Now your opponent will REALLY salivate when you try and cast something and they're sitting on a Force. It's like Diabolic Edict-ing a 19/19 Hatred-ed creature after you've paid the life. It really bites.lol, then it wouldn't be a probability analysis of spoils
Anyway, it's good to know that those percentages apply every time you cast spoils. Sure including spoils may or may not increase the win %, but you are still dealing with a crap shoot either way.
I completely agree with what you are saying, but against control you would just name Empty the Warrens and storm it out. I am also really liking how that SB I posted a while ago is working out. IMOP it is a lot better than the Red Blast plan from my experience.
SB:
1x Empty the Warrens
2x Shattering Spree
1x Reverent Silence
1x Pyroclasm
3x Duress
3x Thoughtseize
4x Tombstalker
You side out 4x Burning Wish, 4x LED, and 3x Tinder Wall and you bring in 3x Thoughtseize, 3x Duress, 4x Tombstalker, and 1x Empty the Warrens. So long as you have Spoils in you deck (thus making Empty the Warrens even better) this SB is quite effective. Try it out, it seems like a bad idea I know, but it seems to work. Especially with Manamorphose!
Whats your board?
Best play in magic: Tundra, vial, - Force vial-Daze force...I win.
Did I miss something? How the hell did belcher become a DTB. It has had just 1 top 8 in the US over the in the last few months. Europe has 5 in the last month! only one per tournament but they had many many more tournaments this month. Is this the same guy or just mass of belcher players?
Sure, you can win with belcher, but why would you play it in a format filled with FoW? How can so many people think its a good choice for that type of metagame?
Team Unicorn is too hetero for me.While this is close it's still wrong. Every one knows it's an orgy of unicorns.******s?
TeaM NOVA for life.
For starters, not everyone plays Force of Will. Take a look at all the other Decks to Beat - I don't see Force in hardly any of them. And when someone doesn't, that typically favors you. It's just a popular, explosive combo deck. Either your opponent opens with Force - or they don't. It's still arguably the best combo deck in the format.
Haha, I run this card for card, only -4 Spoils, +4 Pyroblast. Spoils is probably tier 2 search for the deck in comparison to Infernal Tutor or Plunge. I'm tempted to just run Tarmogoyf in this spot cause it's retard strong.
Why has no one been talking about this card?
Manamorphose
Instant
Add two mana in any combination of colors to your mana pool.
Draw a card.
Its Amazing in so many ways.
Team Unicorn is too hetero for me.While this is close it's still wrong. Every one knows it's an orgy of unicorns.******s?
TeaM NOVA for life.
This man speaks the truth. Belcher benefits greatly from manamorphose.Why has no one been talking about this card?
Manamorphose
Add two mana in any combination of colors to your mana pool.
Draw a card.
Its Amazing in so many ways.
"Oho! I have deluded you! For I am a clever trickster, and this is not actually the truth!"
-Doug Beyer
Probably because Manamorphose is a given, every one is already running it. If you really want to break Manamorphose, figure out some way to get it to work with Doomsday.
I won't be running it. It does nothing but replace itself. If your build has mana-correction issues, then you should rethink the foundation to begin with. All this card does is cycle and increase storm count. Besides, I thought everyone else wasn't running black anyways. If you run solid green and red, then why run it?
It's not bad, but seriously it's like Street Wraith 5-8.
There's no reason to use Wild Cantor instead of Manamorphose.
You run Manamorphose in R/g because there isn't much else to run, between 8 Blasts, Guttural Response, Goblin Welder, Living Wish, Leyline of the Meek, Serum Powder, Street Wraith and Manamorphose, a card that generates free storm, digs for acceleration and imprints for R/g is going to be a superior choice to at least one of those other options. The color fixing is relevant, because Manamorphose is a non LED source of double colored mana for wish targets, I use it for Burning Wish->Diminishing Returns/Tendrils of Agony and Living Wish->Slither Muse/Minion of the Wastes a lot.
Cycling and increasing storm count for free is also more important than you make it out to be, I've had Manamorphose be the difference between turn 2 and turn 3 wins with Empty the Warrens quite a bit.
You'll probably be the only person not running it, Street Wraith is like Manamorphose 5-8.
Last time I checked, Wild Cantor could produce mana. I would play the card in the Street Wraith spot. It helps immensly with cating Diminishing Returns from the SB.
BB
If you pass the turn with Wild Cantor, you may as well concede the game, it's a really god awful play to base a hand around. There's good odds Manamorphose will cycle into mana, and you don't have to bring all of your opponent's 1cc/Daze disruption and creature removal online to do it.
It depends. There are specific instances where one would be benefitial over the other, and they seem to be equally likely to occur, atleast according to my testing.
Take for instance each of these two hands:
1) Elvish Spirit Guide, Manamorphose, Dark Ritual, Chrome Mox, Tinder Wall, Empty the Warrens
2) Land Grant, Wild Cantor, Tinder Wall, Rite of Flame, Seething Song, Burning Wish
In both instances, each gives an advantage that the other would not...the first hand allowing combo on the first turn, the second hand allowing combo on the second (assuming I got my math right).
As for Spoils of the Vault, I think it's absolutely worth running in the BGR version. Out of roughly 70 games worth of testing, It's only lost me the game once, where as it allowed me to win the game many more times.
In the one that I lost, the opponent was running a Stax deck, and I would've lost anway, since I was looking for one more source of mana, and decided to Spoils for Simian Spirit Guide, since I had not yet drawn one. The only source of immediately usable mana ended up being 4 cards deep anyway, and by that time the Stax player would have had Trinisphere and Chalice out on the board at minimum. This was game 2 as well, so he already knew what he was up against.
I guess the key is to know when not to play it. Game 2 against someone running FoW, it's a toss-up as to whether or not you're doing more harm than good by firing it off, so it might be better to save it for a Mox imprint, etc. Unless, of course, you're digging for an EtW.
Street Wraith is a card that is strictly a gamble, and so can be Manamorphose. You're putting yourself at risk by open-handing nothing relevant except a bunch of free cyclers. It's not about thinning your deck. It's about open-handing the appropriate acceleration and win condition. Street Wraith doesn't guarantee you anything, and neither does Spoils of the Vault. Mulligan if you don't like your hand or it's not good enough.
Because both of these cards put your opening hand at risk outside of the already-present threat of Force of Will, I choose not to play them.
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