All B/R update speculation.

[Zombie]

@Teveshzat
I've been meaning to ask this for a while, but since you are such a pure competitive soul and hate variance a lot, why in the world do you play Magic? If the only thing you care about is competition and test of skill (instead of all these extraneous non-competitive things that don't matter at all like cards and the game system and such), why don't you play Chess or Go or fighting games? They test skill way better and don't have a fraction of MTGs randomness, if any at all.

And if GSZ was an auto-include in 70% of the lists at the top tables it would be banned at the next update. Think about it.

This point bears repeating.

[Barook]

Would you seriously want to keep playing those clunky, conditional cards like Entreat or Terminus which are dead in your grip unless you get to resolve your 4 mana planeswalker? Would you want to keep playing conditional cards like Daze or Stifle if you can't shuffle them away after turn 3? What does the tournament player in you say? Can you sustain to lose games because you drew conditional, low poweres cards in the wrong moment or do you share my sentiment, that it's smarter to play less conditional cards and deck which have generally less dead draws in it? If you draw the Batterskull and already have the SFM in hand, you can still fetch a Jitte and don't suffer at all. This is something which is completely different to drawing an Entreat in the first turns or the third Griselbrand/Emrakul while you are looking for a S&T.

So back to the earlier point made: Why is it undesirable to cripple Moracles and Co.? Unless you think it's reasonable to ground your whole Miracles deck on a resolved Jace (Which I'm sure you consider madness as I do), it's pretty desirable to switch to a subtype of deck which is less vulnerable to variance by running less conditional cards than Miracles does. I feel that Blade variants qualify for this (I could write also about S&T, but that's basically just the other side of the medal) and here the desire to create "diversity" may backlashs, if all the Uxx control, tempo and aggro-control pilots try to find a new shell with a minimum of variance. How likely is it that, if Daze, Terminus and other conditional cards are "unplayable" because of their conditionality, all those players eventually head in the same direction of the "lowest common denominator". This basically results into merging all these Delver, Blade, Miracles, Team America, etc. decks into one supertype, especially if Ponder+Preordain+Cruise still remains as a strong core known for its excellent support of aggro-control types, if you ask me.

Didn't you promote the MD use of REB in stuff like Jund and describe it that as great metagaming a few pages ago? Yet when blue decks would have to deal with the same crap (aka situational, dead cards in hand), it's terrible?

While I agree that without BS, UWx Blade would take over Miracles (which isn't necessarily a bad thing since Super-Wraths for are dumb, the threat of Elves rising notwithstanding), it's ridiculous to say that all blue non-combo decks would suddenly merge into one blue blob.

[Lemnear]

Didn't you promote the MD use of REB in stuff like Jund and describe it that as great metagaming a few pages ago? Yet when blue decks would have to deal with the same crap (aka situational, dead cards in hand), it's terrible?

While I agree that without BS, UWx Blade would take over Miracles (which isn't necessarily a bad thing since Super-Wraths for are dumb, the threat of Elves rising notwithstanding), it's ridiculous to say that all blue non-combo decks would suddenly merge into one blue blob.

There is a difference between reacting to a mayority of opposing decks by adjusting your MB answers (MB Pyroblasts in Jund) and simply stumbling over your own flawed gameplan execution (Entreat and Terminus without Brainstorm to get them out of your hand or setting them up). Agree?

It's totally fine if you disagree with my thought process and conclusion about the merging of Uxx decks into a Blade-like supertype, but it bears the question which other blue supertype you think can keep up with Ponder+Preordain+Cruise in the scenario given? CounterTop comes to mind, but there is still DRS and Decay which was already woven into Blade shells before. What's your gut feeling?

[Finn]

Lemnear, whatever the look of blue decks in a non-Brainstorm environment, they will all be weaker compared to every deck that does not use Brainstorm in the first place. That is not a guess, but a fact. Delver of Secrets is not quite as good. All combo is taken down a big notch. Lots of erstwhile keepable 4-land hands might have to get mulliganed. Thoughtseize is better against them. No more responding to a spell with Brainstorm only to find Force of Will or Daze. The list goes on and on. These are not scenarios relegated to any one deck, but are felt across the spectrum. You know what happens when all of these decks are demonstrably and palpably weaker? Other deck designs are elevated by comparison. Blue-based decks contract to fewer designs after a Brainstorm ban, just as you say.

Thank merciful God!

The remaining blue decks facing off against each other and retaining that 70% saturation is a silly forecast. They just took a major hit in power themselves. For every deck from today's meta we kiss goodbye, you make room for a replacement or two or three that are both strategically and tactically different. It could be Merfolk for all I care. Color is not the issue. You take away a major point of power from the best tactical design and other stuff can suddenly compete. How is that a bad thing?

Just as Natural Order decks were briefly a thing during the Mental Misstep era, we saw how quickly they disappeared once the metagame was set straight. They only existed in the first place because they were being artificially held up by a broken card. This has been happening in Legacy with Brainstorm for so long, and increasingly so, that newer players don't even recognize it for what it is. Some cantrip-driven decks will not be able to cope in the new environment and fold to it. Then you won't face several versions of Delver decks in succession at SCG or see three distinct versions of Uwx Stoneforge floating around. We want this. Only the best few will remain. That, my friends, is a healthy environment. What we have now is a bunch of funhouse reflections of a format with abominations that can only exist in the synthetic environment created by the domination - and that is what it is - of this one card.

Finn, what would be your opinion if Ponder, Preordain, and TC got banned?

I would say that wotc is dodging like a bunch of sissies. But I do not think they will do this. After all the above, I still do not think wotc will ban the card. I'm not convinced they should since players would get majorly pissed. For, while I am quite certain that I understand the construct of Legacy, I do not think most players do. (They should not need to.) And they will get majorly pissed that this very fun card is gone. There is another solution that can achieve the same result though, and i have been saying this literally for years. The actual solution is to print lots, and I mean lots, of cards that are designed from the ground up to hose Brainstorm specifically. Wotc has shown that they are both capable and willing to print such cards in their commander sets. They could take the easy way out with this tact or fess up and fix Legacy once and for all with an entire set of cards that will fix this problem, take care of the dual land issue, and whatever else plagues this format.

[Kanti]

They might not be taking the high road, but sacred cows are sacred cows for a reason, right? I do think it would take care of the problem though. Wizards doesn't like banning engines, since they don't like limiting design space. Brainstorm might be the key cog in cantrip decks now, but I think other cantrips are strong enough in a vacuum, and synergize very well with each other, and no matter what Wizards does it will always be limited to never print another good cantrip again.

The printings of Ponder, Preordain, Probe, followed by Treasure Cruise make little sense when Wizards knew Brainstorm was a card. I think they have learned from this, and won't be printing another 1cc U cantrip for a long time, but are hesistant to fix it, as they don't know what road to take. And Wizards really doesn't like printing cards to solve other cards, or so I think. I've read that they prefer to just build around set themes, or merchanics, and let the dice roll.

Also, I think Stoneforge decks would only get more popular. Having a Terminus in hand sucks a lot more than having a Batterskull in hand, even if you're holding the Mystic. Just search for another equipment and get your CA. Stoneforge decks would get weaker as an archetype, but would get be stronger relative to a metagame without Brainstorm. Treasure Cruise would still hamper B decks from making a come-back me thinks, and Stoneforge whoops on anything "fair".

edit; as a High Tide player I bring this up everytime. Would an unban of Frantic Search really be out of order ? I mean cmon. Doubt tempo decks would run Search since they have so much 1cc crap that does the same thing, if not better, when combined with TC (draw for a low mana cost, cast spells for free).

[Pastorofmuppets]

If Tide found room for Delver would it be the best combo deck in the format?

[Chatto]

edit; as a High Tide player I bring this up everytime. Would an unban of Frantic Search really be out of order ? I mean cmon. Doubt tempo decks would run Search since they have so much 1cc crap that does the same thing, if not better, when combined with TC (draw for a low mana cost, cast spells for free).

And give Blue another broken card? No thank you sir... It's the complete opposite of what people have advocated here. There will be most likely be a ban of TC, maybe even BS (but I doubt that one), and perhaps the unbanning of another (being R, G, B, or even W) card.

[btm10]

edit; as a High Tide player I bring this up everytime. Would an unban of Frantic Search really be out of order ? I mean cmon. Doubt tempo decks would run Search since they have so much 1cc crap that does the same thing, if not better, when combined with TC (draw for a low mana cost, cast spells for free).

It's more than a little busted with Cruise.

Just as Natural Order decks were briefly a thing during the Mental Misstep era, we saw how quickly they disappeared once the metagame was set straight. They only existed in the first place because they were being artificially held up by a broken card. This has been happening in Legacy with Brainstorm for so long, and increasingly so, that newer players don't even recognize it for what it is. Some cantrip-driven decks will not be able to cope in the new environment and fold to it. Then you won't face several versions of Delver decks in succession at SCG or see three distinct versions of Uwx Stoneforge floating around. We want this. Only the best few will remain. That, my friends, is a healthy environment. What we have now is a bunch of funhouse reflections of a format with abominations that can only exist in the synthetic environment created by the domination - and that is what it is - of this one card.

I disagree with the part of your post before this, but mostly on the grounds that have already been covered (the gap between Brainstorm and non-Brainstorm cantrips is smaller than you suppose it is; I'd really rather play with the best aggro, aggro-control, and midrange decks than play with their runner-up cousins), but the above quoted section really irks me.

Putting aside the idea that concepts like "artificial" an "synthetic" can apply to a metagame (I'd contend they don't, but we'd be getting way into the weeds to discuss it; I'd also argue that artificial and synthetic things are desirable in lots of contexts), Natural Order decks sprang up not because they were propped up by Misstep, but rather because they were relatively resilient in the face of Misstep, unlike basically all Legacy decks that existed before and after the brief Misstep era. There's nothing artificial about it, it's just good deckbuilding. Furthermore, suggesting that the current meta is even understood enough to ban a card is pretty audacious given the most recent SCG results. The Philadelphia tournament alone had 7 unique archetypes (6 if you insist on calling Sneak and Omni the same archetype) represented in the top 8, and there were a whopping 16 in the top 32. Add in the bizarre stuff we saw at the Columbus IQ the week before (Stiflenought in BUG Delver, Jeskai Ascendency winning the whole thing, the Bant deck with DRS) and the release of Fate Reforged, and we don't know enough yet to ban anything. I thought as recently as a week ago that Cruise should probably be banned, but I'm not even sure of that anymore. I doubt there will be any changes, as much as I'd like to see an unbanning.

I would say that wotc is dodging like a bunch of sissies. But I do not think they will do this. After all the above, I still do not think wotc will ban the card. I'm not convinced they should since players would get majorly pissed.

Or they're doing the right thing by the format. A bunch of Legacy players getting pissed is detrimental to the health of the format because they're more likely to just sell out and stop playing than are Standard players who are upset by format management issues. The most competitive Standard players aren't likely to quit over anything because Standard and Limited are the most common formats for PTQs and GPs and most of the highly competitive player base there is in it for that scene. Modern is still a Pro Tour format, so it's also got more stickiness than the other non-rotating formats because there's a big stage and big money incentive for the serious tournament grinders. For Legacy there's a much smaller set of events with lower recognition, lower payouts, and less opportunity to make a Magic-related living by doing well. It's a hobby for all of us, and pissing off hobbyists is a good way to simply lose them. Legacy got a lot of disaffected Vintage players after Brainstorm and Ponder were restricted, and a similar thing would happen if Brainstorm were banned in Legacy. Some would go [back] to Vintage, some would go to Modern, but a lot of people would probably just quit altogether. In my view, WotC is highly unlikely to go after Brainstorm and this whole discussion is (thankfully) moot.

For, while I am quite certain that I understand the construct of Legacy, I do not think most players do. (They should not need to.) And they will get majorly pissed that this very fun card is gone. There is another solution that can achieve the same result though, and i have been saying this literally for years. The actual solution is to print lots, and I mean lots, of cards that are designed from the ground up to hose Brainstorm specifically. Wotc has shown that they are both capable and willing to print such cards in their commander sets. They could take the easy way out with this tact or fess up and fix Legacy once and for all with an entire set of cards that will fix this problem, take care of the dual land issue, and whatever else plagues this format.

Don't fool yourself. Your understanding of "the construct" of Legacy is limited, at best. You don't have special knowledge of what makes the format tick. You've got a coherent approach to the format, but don't confuse having a lens with actually understanding the thing you're looking at.

Since they aren't going to reprint Duals or make up anything close to them, I'll just stick to the hosers. I guess I don't care if they're printed or not. Hatebears will remain the obnoxious blights on the game that they are, but that's fine. I've learned to live with them even though they eat into my fun because they're clearly fun for other people. The decks still won't be as widely run as blue-based decks are because of the Force of Will gap, and they'll still roll over to their own inconsistency with a greater frequency than do the blue decks. I'd rather see them print some kind of library manipulation in other colors than see the hatebears, but that's just me. A Mirri's Guile variant that allows you to put cards back at the cost of a draw, or that just tacks "Scry 1, then..." onto Guile? A Scroll Rack that doesn't cost mana to activate? Dark Tutelage for 1B not on a body? Hell, Tormenting Voice as an Instant would be playable, and any of these options would really help decks in other colors get what they need.

[Nielsie]

No spidey sense need just logical thinking and math. If a card increases consitency and it get banned than the deck who wants to
increase the consistency will look for replacements. Since Legacy has these in form of ponder and co. the only thing will happen is that you see ponder and preordain instead of ponder.
Remember each addtional card you draw actually doubles you chance to get what you need to defend yourself against the current foe. So the blue decks wil not decrease but just change the cantrips they play. The Blue shell will remain intact and you still will have to play against Tempo decks and Miracles and co.

Did you read more than only the first sentence of Finn's post?

Like I said before above, thinking RUG and BUG are green decks is silly. I'm strictly talking about decks that don't use the "blue shell", as they are required to fill it with some other shell. When it comes to green creature decks that is the "GSZ shell" I beleive, and it will continue to be so as GSZ will only get better, and better as time goes on. Brainstorm is to tempo decks, control, and combo what GSZ is to green mid-range creature decks, that can also fall into different archetypes like mid-range control (Maverick), and combo (Elves).

Every deck using islands will include Brainstorm (Merfolk possibly being the exception to the rule). Not every deck using forests will include GSZ. This is the difference between Brainstorm and GSZ. Why is that you ask? Because again, GSZ is a great tutor but it has a drawback: you have to play Green creatures to use it. Brainstorm is too agressively costed for what it does without any drawbacks. Actualy, it's drawback (putting 2 cards back) is these days one of it's strengths!

If you want I can give you the formula for this and you can make some examples on your own. Maybe than you will see why banning Brainstorm wil change nothing.

I am very interested in this formula

it would cripple decks like the mentioned Miracles in a mayor way.

And now we are at it. I am glad your honest but sorry dude, sometimes you have to suck it up that your pet deck isn't viable anymore.

I feel that Blade variants qualify for this

I am not realy sure this will happen. But if it does, I am sure that DnT would love this and crush those decks. This in turn gives combo (and even Jund) nice and juicy DnT targets. And we begin to have a much healthier meta-game cycle.

Concerning players leaving Legacy if Brainstorm gets banned. Well, to be honest I think Wizards would love this. They don't earn a lot of money on Legacy players. I never buy boosters, only single cards, so Wizards gets exactly nothing out of it from me. They can't reprint the realy interesting stuff like Duals (stupid reserved list...). And Wizards would simply love it when Legacy dies because than they finaly can stop to pretend that they care about it and offcialy stop supporting Legacy.

[Teveshszat]

Nielsie
I am very interested in this formula

It isnt that complicated you just want to know what happens when you draw Y addtional cards out of N remaining deck Cards
with X Copies left in the deck.
P(X,N,3)=1−[(N−X−0/N−0)(N−X−1/N−1)(N−X−2/N−2)]

So this is the formula for what happens when you draw Y=3 addtional cards.
This is also the reason why the gap between the cantrips isn´t that great because if you can draw even 1 more card than you opponent you get a lot more consitency in yur deck and this wins you the game in the end because you have a greater
chance to get what you want.

Finn
Lots of erstwhile keepable 4-land hands might have to get mulliganed. Thoughtseize is better against them. No more responding to a spell with Brainstorm only to find Force of Will or Daze.

You still can do this with Sensei´s Divining top so you still have the response to a spell for finding the counter or the 4 land keep
to just find spells with top afterwards. So no you are wrong banning brainstorm will not stop Blue manipulating their libary.

[Lemnear]

The remaining blue decks facing off against each other and retaining that 70% saturation is a silly forecast. They just took a major hit in power themselves. For every deck from today's meta we kiss goodbye, you make room for a replacement or two or three that are both strategically and tactically different. It could be Merfolk for all I care. Color is not the issue. You take away a major point of power from the best tactical design and other stuff can suddenly compete. How is that a bad thing?

What gives you the idea that stuff like Goblins is more viable than before, if the deck basically died out before SFM, Ponder and Cruise even saw print? What design CAN compete with Preordain + Ponder + TC or CounterTop, thats the question I asked.

And now we are at it. I am glad your honest but sorry dude, sometimes you have to suck it up that your pet deck isn't viable anymore.

Lets ignore that I lost about half a dozen decks to bannings over the years as a player and the fact that I moved in every time, but please don't undermine my point with that douchebaggery of "If Miracles is killed, it's good for the format, but if Goblins, Zoo and Loam are unplayable, something must be done!": Do you want to play in a Format of Blade vs. Rest?

[Barook]

Lets ignore that I lost about half a dozen decks to bannings over the years as a player and the fact that I moved in every time, but please don't undermine my point with that douchebaggery of "If Miracles is killed, it's good for the format, but if Goblins, Zoo and Loam are unplayable, something must be done!": Do you want to play in a Format of Blade vs. Rest?

To be fair, Miracles is one of the major oppressors of the format since Terminus violates of one of the unwritten basic design rules of Magic that Wrath effects (note: not sweepers in general) must not cost less than 4 mana. Given the current level of library manipulation, it's hardly conditional in Legacy. Wizards even upped the minimum mana costs for their shitty Standard Wrath effects to 5 mana recently.

Maverick was one of the top tier 1 decks of the format before Miracles single-handedly knocked it down to permanent Tier 2 status. Sure, other decks kicked it while it was down with stuff like TNN, but Miracles remains the main culprit for this meta shift. Blue has counters to deal with Terminus, options outside of blue are rather limited to fight it, e.g Teeg or Vial to apply further pressure with pseudo-haste creatures. It would be interesting to know how many non-blue decks are heavily affected by Terminus.

I'd take Blade over Miracles as UWx control deck of the format any day of the year, since at the very least, it doesn't suck the fun out of you like Miracle does, even with decks that are good against Miracles.

If it wasn't for Elves, I'd say that the disappeareance of Miracles would have a major, positive effect on the format diversity. But with Elves in the picture, I'm not too sure about it.

[Dice_Box]

I find it entertaining to no end to watch people banter around the term "Pet Deck" as an insult to those that want to see old decks flourish but now it's being used in regard to Miracles. Pick a line and stick to it.

[LeoCop 90]

What gives you the idea that stuff like Goblins is more viable than before, if the deck basically died out before SFM, Ponder and Cruise even saw print?

This is not true. Goblins adapted very well to play against tarmogoyf and stoneforge mystic. Actually , i was very happy bringing goblins to any event until return to ravnica saw print. Deathrite shaman is a problem because he's for no reason a 1/2 and stops lackey forcing goblins to play shitty cards like tarfire, and abrupt decay is a maindeck answer to vial : because of these two cards BGx decks started to be a big problem for goblins. But i think goblins were also playable after deathrite / decay ; now, instead, there are other major offenders like true name nemesis (i just drew 8 cards with ringleaders and have 3 removal spells but this nemesis is gonna kill me anyway) and treasure cruise ( why bother playing ringleader when i can just play the best cards in the format then cast ancestral recall ? ). To be short, many problematic cards have been printed in years for goblins, but it is the last couple years that made the deck tier2 if not worse.
EDIT: (Terminus is not a problem, goblins are happy to play against miracles)

[FoolofaTook]

And give Blue another broken card? No thank you sir... It's the complete opposite of what people have advocated here. There will be most likely be a ban of TC, maybe even BS (but I doubt that one), and perhaps the unbanning of another (being R, G, B, or even W) card.

There are very few black cards that could be unbanned that wouldn't just float into the blue shell immediately. Mind Twist as a perfect example of that premise.

You could unban Necropotence and it wouldn't just get absorbed by blue, except it might go into ANT. Not sure about that since it doesn't give you the cards until the end phase and it's actually more expensive in terms of life than Ad Nauseum in those lists. Of course it would be beyond insane to unban Necropotence.

[Nielsie]

It isnt that complicated you just want to know what happens when you draw Y addtional cards out of N remaining deck Cards
with X Copies left in the deck.
P(X,N,3)=1−[(N−X−0/N−0)(N−X−1/N−1)(N−X−2/N−2)]

So this is the formula for what happens when you draw Y=3 addtional cards.
This is also the reason why the gap between the cantrips isn´t that great because if you can draw even 1 more card than you opponent you get a lot more consitency in yur deck and this wins you the game in the end because you have a greater
chance to get what you want.

Wait a moment. Are you comparing Brainstorm to the other cantrips only on how much cards you can dig from your library? Where does your formula reflect all the other things Brainstorm does? How does it reflect it's instant speed and 1 CMC? This is like saying Demonic Tutor is as powerfull as Infernal Tutor, both get a card out of your library. You could even say Demonic Tutor is less powerfull than Shard Convergence because that one gets you up to 4 cards out of your library and into your hand.

What gives you the idea that stuff like Goblins is more viable than before, if the deck basically died out before SFM, Ponder and Cruise even saw print? What design CAN compete with Preordain + Ponder + TC or CounterTop, thats the question I asked.

To be honest, Goblins will never again become what it once was. This has more to do with Engineered Plague than Terminus, SFM or Ponder, Goblins is easily hated out of the meta just like something as Dredge. Actualy, I always felt that the Miracles match-up was easy for Goblins because they can rebuild so quickly after a Terminus and don't care about permission. People that think Goblins is an agro strategy have never played it. Anyway, what I try to say and this is not only valid for Goblins, is that currently the top-decks all share a certain core and that there are no valid rogue-strategies. For Goblins this more has to do with the printing of TNN, for Loam this has more to do with the cantrip engine, etc.

Lets ignore that I lost about half a dozen decks to bannings over the years as a player and the fact that I moved in every time, but please don't undermine my point with that douchebaggery of "If Miracles is killed, it's good for the format, but if Goblins, Zoo and Loam are unplayable, something must be done!": Do you want to play in a Format of Blade vs. Rest?

I for one would actualy regret if Miracles dies because my two favorite decks have actualy pretty good game against it (DnT and Goblins). Perhaps some people like it to be gone but I could care less. Only thing I care about is that the meta becomes a bit more varied again. I want to see some decks that use another engine than just cantripping all the time. Maybe yes, I want to see a format of Blade vs. the Rest. I actualy enjoyed the meta of RUG vs the Rest in 2012-2013, because RUG was so vulnerable to many rogue strategies. A deck should not need a meta-share of over 25% to be viable.

In the end, it all comes down to this: "can I win a tournament with deck X?". In the recent past there were many decks were you could answer to this with "yes" even if you were only 1 of the 5 people bringing it to a 500 man tournament. Today, that question is always "no" nomather the deck, unless you play blue cantrips with FoW.

[FoolofaTook]

This is not true. Goblins adapted very well to play against tarmogoyf and stoneforge mystic. Actually , i was very happy bringing goblins to any event until return to ravnica saw print. Deathrite shaman is a problem because he's for no reason a 1/2 and stops lackey forcing goblins to play shitty cards like tarfire, and abrupt decay is a maindeck answer to vial : because of these two cards BGx decks started to be a big problem for goblins. But i think goblins were also playable after deathrite / decay ; now, instead, there are other major offenders like true name nemesis (i just drew 8 cards with ringleaders and have 3 removal spells but this nemesis is gonna kill me anyway) and treasure cruise ( why bother playing ringleader when i can just play the best cards in the format then cast ancestral recall ? ). To be short, many problematic cards have been printed in years for goblins, but it is the last couple years that made the deck tier2 if not worse.
EDIT: (Terminus is not a problem, goblins are happy to play against miracles)

Yes, Goblins saw significant wins up until the middle of 2013. It was still a very good list in 2011. It was still a player even in a meta heavily influenced by Delver. It's vanished at this point because of a combination of factors that include Miracles, Stoneblade, Elves and insane blue creatures and card draw. It was one of those lists that relied heavily on tribal synergy and redundancy with some absolute bombs thrown into the mix. The inability to say no to things like Glimpse of Nature, Terminus and True-Name Nemesis alongside the inability to block Insectile Abberration made the list hard to play in the meta. Then Treasure Cruise came along and what was the point of playing red tribal anyway?

[Nielsie]

Yes, Goblins saw significant wins up until the middle of 2013. It was still a very good list in 2011. It was still a player even in a meta heavily influenced by Delver. It's vanished at this point because of a combination of factors that include Miracles, Stoneblade, Elves and insane blue creatures and card draw. It was one of those lists that relied heavily on tribal synergy and redundancy with some absolute bombs thrown into the mix. The inability to say no to things like Glimpse of Nature, Terminus and True-Name Nemesis alongside the inability to block Insectile Abberration made the list hard to play in the meta. Then Treasure Cruise came along and what was the point of playing red tribal anyway?

Goblins has vanished (as a rogue deck) because of TNN. Terminus never has been a problem. Even the Blade decks were okay because you blanked their permission (vial, cavern, lackey) and their board sweepers (by fast rebuilding). Even Jitte and BSkull were not a problem because you could kill the carrier, use combat tricks by saccing Gobo's or attack the equipment. With TNN, your only out is attacking the equipment.

[Dice_Box]

Goblins was dead long before TNN hit the shelves. It was not Terminus that killed it either, it was the reduced effectiveness of its mana denial plan to push though to the late game as well as the decrease in Lackeys efficacy that killed it.

If anything, I think Goblins has a rather good Miracles match up.

[Lemnear]

To be fair, Miracles is one of the major oppressors of the format since Terminus violates of one of the unwritten basic design rules of Magic that Wrath effects (note: not sweepers in general) must not cost less than 4 mana. Given the current level of library manipulation, it's hardly conditional in Legacy. Wizards even upped the minimum mana costs for their shitty Standard Wrath effects to 5 mana recently.

I couldn't care less about WotCs design rules for Standard. I'm convinced that the powerlevel of threats and answers must be set into relation at any point. You can't look at Wrath, printed for 4 mana during a time Serra Angel was the top threat and asume that 4 mana remains a fair balance twenty years later if you have Delver and Tarmogoyf.

I find it entertaining to no end to watch people banter around the term "Pet Deck" as an insult to those that want to see old decks flourish but now it's being used in regard to Miracles. Pick a line and stick to it.

It's barely as entertaining as complaining over a stagnant metagame, but wanting Goblins to stay a permanent topdeck since Onslaught! It's like bitching that Staff of Domination + Priest of Titania + 14 Lands isn't cutting it anymore and calling for bans. We know that only drastic changes to Elves made it possible that the deck remained a force even after the Nettle+Heritage+Glimpse combo-focus did not cut it anymore. Do you feel that Goblins ever have made a step up from the Vial+Lackey+manadenial plan since 2004? Now compare this to the changes to Elves in the same timeframe and ask yourself why one is still a force and the other deck barely vanished.

This is not true. Goblins adapted very well to play against tarmogoyf and stoneforge mystic. Actually , i was very happy bringing goblins to any event until return to ravnica saw print. Deathrite shaman is a problem because he's for no reason a 1/2 and stops lackey forcing goblins to play shitty cards like tarfire, and abrupt decay is a maindeck answer to vial : because of these two cards BGx decks started to be a big problem for goblins. But i think goblins were also playable after deathrite / decay ; now, instead, there are other major offenders like true name nemesis (i just drew 8 cards with ringleaders and have 3 removal spells but this nemesis is gonna kill me anyway) and treasure cruise ( why bother playing ringleader when i can just play the best cards in the format then cast ancestral recall ? ). To be short, many problematic cards have been printed in years for goblins, but it is the last couple years that made the deck tier2 if not worse.
EDIT: (Terminus is not a problem, goblins are happy to play against miracles)

You mean after the hilarious tries to splash green and play Tarmogoyf themselves? Joke aside, the deck has increasing problems with the manacurve of it's own and in relation to it's opponents. While your opponent keeps smacking for 3 with the Investment of a single blue mana which renders cards like Wasteland or Port hilariously bad to gain time for you to make landdrops or tick the Vial the only cards which really accelerate you are Lackey and Instigator (with the later still not being the auto 4-off it deserves to be). Vial and 3-4cc creatures to sneak in turn 4+ is bad today, because the format is too fast. I agree, Goblins is actually pretty good against Miracles because of Vial and the high Cmc to dodge counterbalance but against the rest of the field the high cost is far from helpful. In addition the deck has still not adopted to combo ... after ten years in existance! Because "hate-card x is bad with ringleader!", ignoring that Elves does right fine running Glimpse despite 20 lands and 12 Sorceries and a SB full of combo-hate.

Don't fool yourself, Goblins struggle right because of the deck design and the dependancy on a limited amount of REAL acceleration. Someone ever considered some Out-Of-The-Box thinking within this archetype and maindecked P.Fire and Carpet of Flowers in this meta? I doubt it. (Speed-edit: I asume I immediately get trolled for just mentioning MB anti-blue cards *sigh*)


Edit:

Goblins was dead long before TNN hit the shelves. It was not Terminus that killed it either, it was the reduced effectiveness of its mana denial plan to push though to the late game as well as the decrease in Lackeys efficacy that killed it.

If anything, I think Goblins has a rather good Miracles match up.

All true :)