All B/R update speculation.

[Barook]

Brainstorm is fun to play with, and not any more unfun to play against than any other card. I think that's a significant difference between the two cards.

Brainstorm severely lacks counterplay to be a fun card.

What are your options? The realistic options are playing blue and counters or playing REB/Pyroblast (and no, stuff like Guttural Response does not cut it). Chalice or Thalia/Wingmare might already be too slow (call me when they make a good version of Spirit of the Labyrinth; Chains is in the same boat; Trinisphere puts even more restrictions on your deck and doesn't even stop 100%).

They would need to print more maindeckable hate at instant speed that costs 1 mana max. Then we could talk about fun.

[Finn]

The comparison of Brainstorm to Survival is not a strong one at all. Survival is as Zilla characterized it. It makes you durdle a lot without quite the guarantee of victory that ever should prompt a scoop from across the table. Brainstorm actually is much less of a sure thing and takes much less time to resolve. But it is a matter of degree and not category. This makes me wonder if there is an inverse rule in there somewhere which dictates that the more funa dn durdly a card is for the controller of it, the less fun it is for the opponent.

[Zilla]

And what of the people who think playing Survival is fun? If that's the line in the sand now, what about their wishes? If one subjective claim is good for one card, why is it not good for all?

What I'm saying is that your comparison wasn't apt because Survival is fun for one party and distinctly unfun for the other. The same is not true of Brainstorm.

Furthermore, it can easily be argued that if you want to have fun playing Brainstorm, you can slot it into virtually any deck. The same is very clearly not true for Survival.

Note that I'm not suggesting Brainstorm's ubiquity is a good or bad thing for the health of the format - only that it's not objectively unfun to play with or against.

[Dice_Box]

The comparison of Brainstorm to Survival is not a strong one at all.

But if "Fun" is the measure of the day, how does one rule out any potential comparison?

Edit:
Being forced to effectively take it or be made to build ways to hate it out is not fun. Watching someone Brainstorm back a Terminus is not fun. Watching someone dig themselves out of moronic opening hands with a card is not fun, watching someone hide cards from discard is not fun. Brainstorm is about as much fun to me as you claim Survival is to you.

[solidbass]

I think the graph posted by User Nielsie shows a little more than just "how busted brainstorm is." Link: http://https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7diBsK_VJ0cQlBrNms2NG45am8/view?pli=1

I believe it shows the shift to the busted khans spells. Ponder jumped around 20% (September 2014) when TC was a thing and hasn't fallen because DTT is essentially the same thing. Brainstorm jumped as well, obviously, but not as much but when the percentage of decks playing it is so high it's harder to jump an equal amount. Anyways, if you look at the graph pre khans, BS was fairly stable netting only a few percentage points over a year and a half. I'm unsure about data prior to this graph but I'm sure it's quite similar to pre khans.

An interesting note is BS rising is almost a direct link to the number of blue decks rising BUT the number of ponders rising is a rising of homogeneity in blue decks.

Obviously BS at 55-65% is "unhealthy" to some but banning DTT would most likely drop BS to these levels once again. I assume this is good news to most. However, I believe there would be an even greater effect in decreasing the amount of Ponders run which would increase the diversity of decks (at least in the color blue).

In conclusion, DTT needs a ban and I think WOTC will actually ban it soon for the health of the format.

[Finn]

Solidbass, that was a damn good post. Thanks for the perspective.

[ReAnimator]

I shed no tears at TC getting banned and i wont' miss DTT either, but really are either of those cards actually better or more powerful than brainstorm?

It honestly feels like one of those, ban everything till necro is good, then keep banning everything except necro to keep it in check, sort of situations to me.

[Barook]

I think the graph posted by User Nielsie shows a little more than just "how busted brainstorm is." Link: http://https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7diBsK_VJ0cQlBrNms2NG45am8/view?pli=1

I believe it shows the shift to the busted khans spells. Ponder jumped around 20% (September 2014) when TC was a thing and hasn't fallen because DTT is essentially the same thing. Brainstorm jumped as well, obviously, but not as much but when the percentage of decks playing it is so high it's harder to jump an equal amount. Anyways, if you look at the graph pre khans, BS was fairly stable netting only a few percentage points over a year and a half. I'm unsure about data prior to this graph but I'm sure it's quite similar to pre khans.

An interesting note is BS rising is almost a direct link to the number of blue decks rising BUT the number of ponders rising is a rising of homogeneity in blue decks.

Obviously BS at 55-65% is "unhealthy" to some but banning DTT would most likely drop BS to these levels once again. I assume this is good news to most. However, I believe there would be an even greater effect in decreasing the amount of Ponders run which would increase the diversity of decks (at least in the color blue).

In conclusion, DTT needs a ban and I think WOTC will actually ban it soon for the health of the format.

DTT has to be banned. That goes without saying. It's more broken than TC.

While there would be a drop in BS and Ponder usage, I doubt the drop would be big. The Khans Delve spells made many people realize how good Ponder as the second premium cantrip really is, just like Young Pyromancer suddenly became a thing after being the red headed stepchild for so long.

Banning DTT alone is basically the Survival problematic of banning Vengevine instead of the enabler - it only takes one retarded blue-related print and blue is back in full force.

[Ace/Homebrew]

...just like Young Pyromancer suddenly became a thing after being the red headed stepchild for so long.

I see what you did there.

[jrsthethird]

It's pretty unfun to not be playing Brainstorm and watching your opponents keep of Land, Land, Land, Land, Glistner Elf, Brainstorm, Daze turn into a turn 3 kill. While you mulligan to 6 and get stuck with what you drew. Makes you wonder why any deck not playing Chalice on 1 would ever not play Brainstorm.

So pissed last night playing Grixis Control vs. Grixis Delver. I didn't see a Brainstorm in either game, and all I drew were lands when my opponent was able to stabilize and cantrip for more. It's great on my side of the board, but it felt like he was hitting every opening hand and topdeck while I was struggling to keep up. Maybe I should have mulliganed better? Who knows, but one Brainstorm would have put me back into the game for sure.

I think the graph posted by User Nielsie shows a little more than just "how busted brainstorm is." Link: http://https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7diBsK_VJ0cQlBrNms2NG45am8/view?pli=1

I believe it shows the shift to the busted khans spells. Ponder jumped around 20% (September 2014) when TC was a thing and hasn't fallen because DTT is essentially the same thing. Brainstorm jumped as well, obviously, but not as much but when the percentage of decks playing it is so high it's harder to jump an equal amount. Anyways, if you look at the graph pre khans, BS was fairly stable netting only a few percentage points over a year and a half. I'm unsure about data prior to this graph but I'm sure it's quite similar to pre khans.

An interesting note is BS rising is almost a direct link to the number of blue decks rising BUT the number of ponders rising is a rising of homogeneity in blue decks.

Obviously BS at 55-65% is "unhealthy" to some but banning DTT would most likely drop BS to these levels once again. I assume this is good news to most. However, I believe there would be an even greater effect in decreasing the amount of Ponders run which would increase the diversity of decks (at least in the color blue).

In conclusion, DTT needs a ban and I think WOTC will actually ban it soon for the health of the format.

Not to mention how a silly card like Preordain became Legacy playable, and we see the trend spread into Modern with $10-15 Serum Visions. I'd have liked to see Preordain numbers on that graph as well.

[Barook]

Not to mention how a silly card like Preordain became Legacy playable, and we see the trend spread into Modern with $10-15 Serum Visions. I'd have liked to see Preordain numbers on that graph as well.

If we go by this, Preordain is at ~13%. Hardly relevant. Gitaxian Probe in the wake of the Delve spells would be more interesting, but I guess that's another case of making a good card popular. Free information is quite powerful.

[solidbass]

Thaks Finn, I really appreciate it.

DTT has to be banned. That goes without saying. It's more broken than TC.

While there would be a drop in BS and Ponder usage, I doubt the drop would be big. The Khans Delve spells made many people realize how good Ponder as the second premium cantrip really is, just like Young Pyromancer suddenly became a thing after being the red headed stepchild for so long.

Banning DTT alone is basically the Survival problematic of banning Vengevine instead of the enabler - it only takes one retarded blue-related print and blue is back in full force.

So I did a little research myself on the ponder increases per year and staring in 2011 to 2015 it went: 26.3% at 3.2 copies, 42.2% at 3.4 copies in 2012, 45.8% at 3.3 copies in 2013, 49.8% at 3.4 copies in 2014 and 64.4% at 3.6 copies in 2015. My source is mtgtop8.
So the first jump was due to Delver being printed and then it only rose a few percentage points for a year afterwards. The next significant jump was the printing of the busted delve spells.
These findings are quite interesting, I think, because if Ponder is being used a canary in the coal mine for homogeneity of decks it would suggest that Delver actually stifled diversity among blue decks more so than either TC or DTT...I won't draw any conclusions from this but it's at least something to think about.

Also, Ponder was released in 2007 and people understood the power of it very quickly, at least, they would have understood it much sooner than than the release of the khans spells. I sincerely believe that Ponder use would decrease in large numbers if DTT was banned. It is possible Ponder will not decrease that much but we have no hard evidence suggesting it would NOT go down significantly besides conjecture.

I think, for WOTC, banning DTT is the easiest thing for them to do. Just how TC was easy for them. Both of them have a measurable and easy to see effect on the format.

[phonics]

Doesn't relate to when sets drop but it shows the trend of top played cards from each year and how they trended.

[Admiral_Arzar]

Wow, that chart is pretty revealing. Both in terms of Brainstorm domination and in the incredible fall of non-blue strategies (even Wasteland is down dramatically, to say nothing of anything GWx related).

[Lord_Mcdonalds]

Poor Maverick, the fairest of them all :(

To be fair, decks like Jund/Shardless BUG becoming the midrange decks of choice has a lot to do with that.

[Dice_Box]

Out of interest, what's the spread on Punishing Fire, Glistener Elf, GSZ, Wirewood Symbiote, Aether Vial and Progenitus?

[DarthVicious]

They would need to print more maindeckable hate at instant speed that costs 1 mana max. Then we could talk about fun.

They did. And it was the least fun time I can remember playing.
Can be run main in any deck, even non-blue. (And it was.)
Can be cast turn 1 on the draw. (And it was.)
Can even be used to fight itself, should the format get overran with it. (And it was, on both counts.)
Costs 1 mana, max. Was frequently cast for zero mana.
Instant speed.

Remember a card that was printed that fits all that criteria?

Mental Misstep

And look what happened there.


Disclaimer: I vote neither for nor against a brainstorm ban. I'd miss it, but I wouldn't even remotely consider selling out of Magic if it were. DTT is another animal entirely. Compare Dig Through Time to this: Ancestral Memories.

[phonics]

Out of interest, what's the spread on Punishing Fire, Glistener Elf, GSZ, Wirewood Symbiote, Aether Vial and Progenitus?

[Barook]

They did. And it was the least fun time I can remember playing.
Can be run main in any deck, even non-blue. (And it was.)
Can be cast turn 1 on the draw. (And it was.)
Can even be used to fight itself, should the format get overran with it. (And it was, on both counts.)
Costs 1 mana, max. Was frequently cast for zero mana.
Instant speed.

Remember a card that was printed that fits all that criteria?

Mental Misstep

And look what happened there.

Oh yeah, I forgot to add the obvious "symmetrical" hate. Otherwise we would get another Misstep that gets abused by blue decks.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

Doesn't relate to when sets drop but it shows the trend of top played cards from each year and how they trended.

Poor Savannah, it's a pity to be the one.

Compare Dig Through Time to this: Ancestral Memories.

Guay's art is much more beautiful, though.